🏷️#Hedging

Challenge Distillation: Run Multiple Accounts on Unrelated Waves, and Only Advance the Survivors | Same Expected Value, but the Odds of Actually Winning Went from 13% to 81%

Until May, I mirrored the same trades across every account. Now I run multiple challenges in parallel on unrelated waves, and only advance the ones that survive. I call this "challenge distillation." A 40,000-run Monte Carlo test showed distillation doesn't add a single yen of expected value. What it adds is the probability of actually capturing that expected value — from 13.0% to 81.1%, even at zero edge. What matters isn't the number of accounts but the correlation between them: at correlation 0.8, risk only ever falls to 0.894 no matter how many you stack. Covers how much each way of splitting waves (instrument, day of week, time of day, SL/TP) actually helps, why even a funded account should be blown up once you've withdrawn from it, and where this differs from the banned practice of cross-account hedging. Calculated using real list prices from Fintokei, FTMO, and FundedNext. In September 2026 I also verified this on real data (5 strategies × 8 instruments = 40 waves, 2010–2026): running the same wave on every account leaves the total-wipeout rate stuck at 58.4%, while splitting into 10 waves drops it to 1.8%.