What's FTMO's Expected Value? A One-Year Simulation of 2-Step vs. 1-Step Shows 1-Step Wins at Every Lot Size [September 2026]

※ Rules and prices were confirmed on FTMO's official site on September 27, 2026. FTMO's fee is denominated in euros, converted here at €1 = $1.146.

Conclusion

• FTMO's expected value is highest on 1-Step. At 1% risk per trade and "medium" skill (55% win rate), it returned +$29,498 over one year. 2-Step returned +$20,306 under the same conditions.
• The ranking doesn't flip across any lot size or skill level. 1-Step came out ahead in all 12 combinations.
• 1-Step is strong because the account becomes a fresh one every time you take a payout, restoring the max-loss cushion back to 10%. Passing faster with one step, and a 90% split, also help.
• 2-Step's strength is that your first payout refunds 100% of the fee. The max-loss line doesn't move when you withdraw.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), only 1-Step's 1%/1.5% risk and 2-Step's 1.5% risk come out ahead. All of these are thin gains — picking a plan alone doesn't manufacture a winning edge.

FTMO's plans ($100K)

As of September 27, 2026, $100K accounts are on sale: 2-Step at €439 (−19%) and 1-Step at €399 (−20%). No end date is listed, so this article's calculations use the list price. Results calculated at the sale price are in the FAQ below.

For both plans, the daily loss floor is "yesterday's closing balance minus 5% (3%) of the initial balance." It updates at midnight Central European Time (7am JST, 8am JST in winter).

1-Step's max loss sits 10% below the highest end-of-day balance and never comes down. But once you take a payout, the account becomes a new one and the line resets to 90% of the initial balance.

Simulation assumptions

The assumptions are identical to the 4-firm comparison article.

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades per day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of the initial balance (once a loss would take you over 2.5% for the day, you stop trading for the rest of that day)
• Per-trade risk, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size fixed at r% of the initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of the risk per trade (wins are +0.95R, losses are −1.05R)
• On failure, rebuy the same plan; no scaling; payouts every 14 days; profit left in the account at year-end doesn't count
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan (2-Step, 1-Step)
• Skill: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• How much profit is left in the account at each payout (2-Step picks the best amount per plan; 1-Step is fixed at 0 since payouts must be withdrawn in full)

Not included in this model

• 2-Step scaling (meeting conditions raises the split to 90% and grows the account)
• Restrictions around news events or weekend holding (they vary by account type)
• Sale pricing (calculated at list price)

The expected-value formula

Expected value of one trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1 and cost set at 5% of the risk per trade (0.05R), a win nets +0.95R and a loss costs −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value of one trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value over one year

One-year expected value = average payouts received over the year + average fee refunded − average fees paid

• Payouts received = withdrawal amount × split (80% for 2-Step, 90% for 1-Step)
• Fee refunded: 2-Step gets the full fee back on the first payout. 1-Step: none
• Fees paid = fee × number of purchases over the year (rebuying every time you fail)

The loss side is capped at "fee × number of purchases." The upside from a passed account, though, has no cap. Because of this shape, a slightly negative expected value per trade can still turn positive over a year. This average can't be derived analytically, so we ran a full year of trading 20,000 times under the actual rules and averaged the results (Monte Carlo method).

At ¥150/dollar with a round-trip cost of 1.5 pips, a 30-pip stop-loss/take-profit corresponds to this article's "0.05R cost." At $100K with 1% risk per trade ($1,000), that's 5 lots. See the 4-firm comparison article for detailed lot-size and leverage examples.

0.5% risk: average one-year take-home minus fees

The probability of ending in the black at "medium" skill is 69% for 2-Step and 85% for 1-Step.

1.0% risk

The probability of ending in the black at "medium" skill is 91% for 2-Step and 97% for 1-Step. At "medium" skill, the one-year breakdown was 2-Step "$22,215 in payouts and refunds − $1,908 in fees" and 1-Step "$31,842 in payouts − $2,344 in fees."

1.5% risk

At 1.5% risk, after one loss, the next loss would exceed 2.5%, so trading stops there for the day.

The probability of ending in the black at "medium" skill is 92% for 2-Step and 98% for 1-Step.

Why the gap exists

1-Step's max loss trails the highest end-of-day balance upward, so as your profit grows, your cushion stays locked to "10% below your peak." Even so, it's strong because taking a payout every 14 days issues a fresh account, restarting with a clean 10% cushion every time. Payouts must be withdrawn in full, so you can't grow the cushion by leaving profit in the account, but you receive it at a 90% split.

1-Step's 3% daily loss is tighter than 2-Step's 5%. But under this article's assumptions, daily losses are stopped at 2.5%, so the 3% cap never gets triggered. If you're someone who can lose more than 2.5% in a day, 1-Step's 3% cap matters.

Which one should you buy

1-Step's 50% best-day rule means "your best day's profit must be at or under 50% of the sum of your profitable days." Exceeding it isn't a failure, but you can't pass or get paid until you meet the condition. Since the simulation's wins and losses are uniform in size, this effect shows up small here.

FAQ

Q. Is FTMO's expected value positive?

With a 55% win-rate edge (+0.05R per trade), both plans came out positive over one year. At 1% risk, 2-Step returned +$20,306 and 1-Step +$29,498. At zero edge (50% win rate), both were negative at 0.5% risk, and 2-Step was still negative even at 1% risk.

Q. Is FTMO's fee refunded?

For 2-Step, the fee is refunded 100% when you receive your first payout on a funded account. 1-Step has no refund. The 2-Step expected value figures include this refund.

Q. When can I request my first FTMO payout?

From 14 days after your first trade on the account. Requests are reviewed in 1–2 business days, and paid out 1–2 business days after approval. On 1-Step, payouts can't be left in the account — you must withdraw the full profit.

Q. What if I use the sale price?

Recalculating at the sale prices as of September 27, 2026 ($100K at €439=$503 for 2-Step, €399=$457 for 1-Step) with 1% risk and "medium" skill gives 2-Step +$20,511 and 1-Step +$29,969. It's a bit better with the lower fee, but the ranking doesn't change. At zero edge and 1% risk, that's 2-Step −$889 and 1-Step +$1,723.

Q. Can I use an EA (automated trading)?

FTMO doesn't ban EA use itself. Its official "Forbidden Trading Practices" page bans things like an EA that overloads the account with more than 2,000 server requests a day. This article's simulation is method-agnostic — it only uses win rate and lot size.

Q. I want to run this with my own conditions

We've published the engine sim-prop-ev.py and this article's plan config (ftmo.json). Run python sim-prop-ev.py ftmo.json 20000 to reproduce this article's tables (requires Python and numba). You can also edit the prices and rules and rerun it.

Related

• 🏢 FTMO guide
• 📊 Compare FTMO's plans
• 📊 FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec: expected value comparison
• 📊 Should you buy FTMO or Hantec?
• 📊 Fintokei vs. FTMO comparison
• 📊 FTMO Futures expected value

Sources: FTMO "Trading Objectives," "pricing table (homepage)," "How do I withdraw my profits?," "Forbidden Trading Practices." All confirmed September 27, 2026.