What's FundedHive's Expected Value? Simulating 2-Step Classic Over 1 Year: It Falls Short of FTMO Due to a 70% Split and a $1,000 Daily Payout Cap [September 2026]

※ Rules and prices were confirmed on FundedHive's official site and official FAQ on September 27, 2026. Prices shown are list price (for $100K).

Conclusion

• 2-Step Classic comes to +$18,991 for the year at 1% risk per trade and "medium" skill. That falls just short of FTMO 2-Step under the same conditions (+$20,306).
• The reasons it falls short: the profit split is a low 70%, and payouts are capped at $1,000 a day.
• On the other hand, it's cheaper at $499, and the room is generous — target 8% → 6%, daily loss 5%, max loss 10% (static). Because of that, losses at zero-to-small skill were smaller than FTMO 2-Step's.
• At zero skill (50% win rate), only 1.5% risk per trade turns positive (+$1,495), and even that's a thin margin. Choosing a plan doesn't create an edge on its own.
• As noted in our guide, Trustpilot ratings for this firm are suspended as of September 2026. Weigh the numbers against the fact that the firm's own track record is thin.

FundedHive's plans ($100K)

FundedHive offers three formats.

For PFP, the funded-stage fee owed after passing depends on a risk tier determined by your evaluation trading. Per the pricing page, tiers are low risk 1%, medium-low risk 2%, medium risk 2.5%, and high risk 3%; low and medium-low pay the full fee out of profit, while medium and high pay half upfront and half out of profit. How the tier is decided is said to be in the terms of service, but we didn't verify this for this article. Instant Growth grows the account every time you earn 6%. Neither of these fits this simulation's engine, so we didn't calculate them here.

Max loss is "balance-based," but the official FAQ states a breach occurs the moment that line is reached, whether from a floating or a realized loss. The max-loss line doesn't move on a payout.

Payouts are paid automatically from a smart contract on the blockchain. Per the official FAQ, the daily cap is $1,000 for Classic and PFP, and $2,000 for Instant. You can submit multiple requests the same day, but the total can't exceed the cap.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of initial balance across every plan (once you're one more loss away from exceeding 2.5% for the day, you stop trading for the day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size fixed at r% of initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (win = +0.95R, loss = −1.05R)
• On a fail, the same plan is repurchased; no scaling; profit left in the account at year-end is not counted
• Payouts are once per trading day, capped at $1,000 per request (officially it's every calendar day, so in reality you could withdraw slightly more)
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Skill: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• Amount of profit left in the account at payout time (we picked whichever amount was best)

Not modeled

• The "profitable day" condition: the official table only lists the day count (3 days); we couldn't confirm what profit percentage counts as a qualifying day. The model counts a day with ≥0.5% profit.
• The funded account's no-weekend-carry restriction
• Trading being paused until 00:00 UTC on the day of a payout
• The bans on copy trading and hedging

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1 and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win nets +0.95R and a loss costs −1.05R. With win rate p:

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value per year

Expected value per year = average payout received over the year + average refunded fee − average fee paid

• Payout received = withdrawal amount × split rate (70%). Withdrawal amount is capped at $1,000/day
• Refunded fee: none for Classic
• Fee paid = fee × number of times purchased in the year (repurchased every time you fail)

Losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passing account can grow without limit. Because of this shape, some combinations end up positive over a year even when the expected value per trade is slightly negative. The three averages can't be derived from a formula alone, so we ran 20,000 simulated years of trading under the actual rules and averaged the results (Monte Carlo method).

A worked example in USD/JPY

If USD/JPY's spread and commission round-trip to 1.5 pips, a 30-pip stop-loss/take-profit puts cost at 5% of risk (0.05R), matching this article's assumptions. On $100K at 1% risk per trade, risk is $1,000; since 1 pip on 1 lot (100,000 units) is about $6.667, a 30-pip stop-loss means 5 lots. A win nets +$950, a loss costs −$1,050. The full calculation is detailed in our FTMO / The5ers / Fintokei / Hantec expected-value comparison.

0.5% risk per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

For comparison, here are FTMO 2-Step's figures from our 4-firm comparison article, calculated with the same engine and assumptions.

1.0% risk per trade

1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, once you've taken one loss, one more loss would exceed the 2.5% daily cap, so trading stops there for the day.

Why the results differ

Comparing at 1% risk per trade and zero skill, 58% of runs reached a funded account, and the average fee paid was $3,204. At "medium" skill, 99% reached a funded account, and the average payout was $20,714.

Which to buy

EAs are allowed as long as they aren't used for HFT (high-frequency trading) or exploiting bugs. There's no MT4/MT5, though, so you'll need something that runs on cTrader.

FAQ

Q. Is FundedHive's expected value positive?

At "medium" skill (55% win rate, +0.05R per trade), it was positive at every lot size — +$18,991 for the year at 1% risk per trade. At zero skill (50% win rate), 0.5% and 1% risk were negative, and only 1.5% risk was a thin positive at +$1,495. The probability of finishing positive is 44%.

Q. Is FundedHive's fee refunded?

No, the Classic fee is not refunded. In exchange, there's no additional payment — like a funded-stage fee — once you pass.

Q. When and how much can I withdraw from FundedHive?

You can withdraw daily from a funded account. Per the official FAQ, Classic's cap is $1,000 a day; if you submit multiple requests the same day, the total is still capped at that amount. Payments are made automatically from a smart contract, and the official FAQ states that if a payment doesn't arrive within 60 seconds of confirmation, they'll add $1,000 on top. Withdrawing pauses trading until 00:00 UTC that day (9am JST).

Q. Does the profit split ever go up?

As of checking the official pricing page on September 27, 2026, Classic's funded-account split is 70%. PFP's funded-account split is a fixed 80%.

Q. I want to run this with my own numbers

We've published the simulation script and the FundedHive config file used in this article. Running python sim-prop-ev.py fundedhive.json reproduces the tables above. You can edit the split or payout cap and rerun it (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 FundedHive guide
• 📊 Compare FundedHive plans
• 📊 FTMO / The5ers / Fintokei / Hantec expected-value comparison
• 📊 Web3 Prop Firms Overview

Sources: FundedHive's official site, "Challenge pricing," "FAQ." Both confirmed September 27, 2026.