What's Alpha Capital's Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of Alpha One vs. Alpha Pro: Pro 10% Comes Out on Top [September 2026]

⚠ Rules and pricing were confirmed on Alpha Capital Group's official site (purchase screen) and official help center on September 27, 2026. All prices are list price (no coupon) at $100K.

Conclusion

• At 1% risk per trade and "medium" edge, Alpha Pro 10% (On-Demand) comes out on top, at +$20,262 for the year. The same plan's Bi-Weekly payout option (+$19,906) is nearly tied with it, while the two Alpha One options (+$13,771 / +$11,611) trail well behind.
• Alpha Pro 10% is strong because its 10% max loss is static (never moves off the initial balance) and it's priced at only $447. Even within Alpha Pro, the 8% configuration costs more ($527) with less room, so there's no reason to choose it.
• Alpha One's max loss trails your highest balance. The 6% plan only has 4% of breathing room, so risking 1%+ per trade means more disqualifications and fewer accounts that ever reach Pro. Only at 0.5% risk per trade and "strong" edge did Alpha One 6% come out on top.
• The gap between payout methods (On-Demand vs. Bi-Weekly) is small — a few hundred dollars regardless of lot size. On-Demand's "40% best-day rule" barely matters in this model.
• The only configuration that stayed positive at zero edge (50% win rate) was Alpha Pro 10% at 1.5% risk per trade. Alpha Capital gives no fee refund, so if you never pass, the fee is simply gone.

Alpha Capital's plans (at $100K equivalent)

Alpha One's max loss line is "highest balance minus the max loss band" — as your balance grows, the line rises with it. For example, on One 10%, if the balance reaches $102,000, the line rises from $94,000 to $96,000. Once the balance reaches $106,000, the line locks at the initial $100,000 and stops moving from there.

The Alpha One line never drops on a payout. Per the official help center, once the line is locked at initial balance, withdrawing all of your profit will close the account. To keep trading, you need to leave part of the profit in the account.

Daily loss is calculated against the balance as of midnight each day (00:00 server time, GMT+3, i.e. 6:00 JST — whether this shifts by an hour during DST isn't stated officially and remains unconfirmed). Alpha One uses "whichever is higher between balance and equity (including floating P&L)"; Alpha Pro 8%/10% uses "balance."

On-Demand's consistency rule requires "best single day's profit ÷ total profit over that payout period" to be 40% or lower. It doesn't apply during evaluation. Choosing Bi-Weekly removes the consistency rule, but costs $50 more and can't be combined with the 90%-split add-on.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of initial balance across all plans (if the next loss would exceed 2.5%, stop trading for the rest of that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size fixed at r% of starting balance; one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (win = +0.95R, loss = −1.05R)
• On failure, rebuy the same plan; no scaling; profit left in the account at year-end isn't counted
• Payouts every 5 trading days (weekly) for On-Demand, every 10 trading days (14 days) for Bi-Weekly
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Edge: win rate 50% (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• Amount of profit left in the account at payout time (the best amount was chosen for each plan)

Not included in this model

• The Max Risk Rule (Funded accounts only, purchases from July 21, 2026 onward). If floating loss on a single instrument hits 2% of a $100K account, the account is closed with no warning. Rebuilding the same instrument/direction within 10 minutes gets combined with the prior loss. A single 1.5% stop-loss won't hit this, but repeatedly re-entering the same instrument would.
• Alpha One 6%'s Funded-stage daily limit of 4% (calculated at the evaluation figure of 3% instead — since trading stops at 2.5%/day anyway, this doesn't change the results)
• The 0.25% account-size bonus attached to the 4th payout (officially described as "at the firm's discretion")
• The ban on opening/closing trades within 5 minutes of news, the weekend-carry ban on Alpha Pro Funded accounts, the lot cap (40 lots at $100K), the 2-minute minimum hold time, and the 30-day inactivity suspension
• On-Demand's consistency rule is, for engine reasons, applied during evaluation too (in reality it doesn't apply there). The difference versus leaving it out came to tens to a few hundred dollars in the 0.5%-risk runs

The expected-value formulas

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1, and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value for the year

Expected value for the year = average payout received over the year − average fee paid

• Payout received = withdrawal amount × profit split (80%)
• Fee paid = fee × number of times purchased over the year (rebuying on every failure)
• Since Alpha Capital gives no fee refund, there's no "fee refunded" term

Losses are capped at "fee × number of times purchased," while payouts from passed accounts have no ceiling. Because of this shape, even a slightly negative expected value per trade can sometimes turn positive over a full year. This average can't be derived with a formula, so I ran a full year of trading 20,000 times under the actual rules and took the average (a Monte Carlo method).

A concrete example in USD/JPY

Assuming a round-trip spread-plus-commission of 1.5 pips on USD/JPY, a 30-pip stop-loss/take-profit corresponds to this article's "cost = 0.05R." At $100K and 1% risk per trade ($1,000), with USD/JPY at 150, that's about 5 lots. A win is +$950, a loss is −$1,050. Alpha Capital's lot cap at $100K is 40 lots, so this sizing doesn't come close to it. Full details of the math are in the 4-firm comparison article.

0.5% risk per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

1.0% risk per trade

At "medium" edge, the probability of ending in the black was 74% for Alpha One 6%, 69% for Alpha One 10%, and 92% (On-Demand) / 90% (Bi-Weekly) for Alpha Pro 10%.

1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, a single loss already puts the next loss over 2.5%, so trading stops there for the day.

Why the gap appears

Alpha One's weakness is that its max loss is a "trailing" type. If the balance climbs a bit and then you lose a streak, you can be disqualified at a line above your initial balance. This shape persists until the line locks at initial balance (+4% for the 6% plan). At 0.5% risk per trade, a losing streak still leaves room, which is why Alpha One 6% tied — and slightly beat — Pro at "strong" edge.

Which should you buy?

Rather than putting everything into one firm, spreading across several top-ranked firms limits the damage if any one of them changes its rules or makes a discretionary call against you.

FAQ

Q. Is Alpha Capital's expected value positive?

It depends on your edge. At a 55% win rate (expected value +0.05R per trade) and 1% risk per trade, Alpha Pro 10% came to +$20,262 for the year. At a 50% win rate, it was negative except for Alpha Pro 10% at 1.5% risk. Choosing a plan doesn't manufacture edge.

Q. Is Alpha Capital's fee refundable?

No. The official help center states "all evaluation plans are non-refundable." Compared to firms that refund the fee on the first payout (like FTMO), this is a disadvantage.

Q. When can I withdraw from Alpha Capital?

That's determined by the payout method you chose at purchase, and it can't be changed afterward. On-Demand lets you request anytime, provided profit is ≥2% of the account and your best single day is ≤40% of profit. Bi-Weekly pays every 14 days starting from your first trade on the funded account, minimum $100 (5 trading days required for the first request). Payment arrives within 2 business days of the request, via Rise, Wise, or bank transfer.

Q. Can I use an EA (automated trading)?

Fully automated EAs are banned. The official help center states that EAs which place orders automatically with no human oversight, third-party bots, and HFT will never be approved under any circumstances, and using one results in immediate account closure. What's allowed is only assistive tools — lot-size calculation, stop-loss/take-profit management, moving your entry to breakeven. To use one at all, you must enable EA use at purchase on MT5 and get prior approval by submitting the EX5 file. It cannot be used on Alpha Direct or Swap-Free accounts.

Q. What is the Max Risk Rule?

On a Funded account, it's a rule that closes the account once floating loss on a single instrument hits a set percentage of account size (2% for $50K–$200K, 3% for $5K–$25K, 1% for Alpha Direct). Losing positions on the same instrument are combined and are not offset by winning positions. It applies to accounts purchased on or after July 21, 2026. A stop-loss of up to 1.5% won't hit this, but averaging down, or re-entering the same instrument and direction within 10 minutes, can. Since Alpha Direct's threshold is 1%, risking 1%+ per trade would already hit it at the stop-loss itself — that's why it's excluded from this comparison.

Q. I want to run this with my own assumptions

I've published the simulation engine and this article's config file (Alpha Capital). Run python sim-prop-ev.py alphacapital.json to reproduce this article's tables. You can vary win rate, lot size, and the plan figures (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 Alpha Capital Group guide / Compare Alpha Capital's pricing
• 📊 Expected value comparison: FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, Hantec
• 📖 Complete guide to consistency rules
• 📖 Types of drawdown (static vs. trailing)
• 📖 Prop firm EA rules

Sources: Alpha Capital Group "Purchase screen (Choose Your Evaluation)"; help center: "Alpha One (6%/10%/12%)", "Alpha Pro (8%/10%)", "What is the maximum total loss?", "Daily risk limits", "On-Demand Performance Fee", "Bi-Weekly Performance Fee", "Refund", "Max Risk Rule", "Can I use an EA?", "Performance fee bonus". All confirmed September 27, 2026.