What's the Expected Value of Hantec Trader? Simulating Express, Enhanced, EnhancedX, and Endurance Over 1 Year, Endurance Ranks #1 [September 2026]

※ Rules were confirmed on Hantec Trader's official help center (the 4 Challenge Types articles) on September 27, 2026. Prices are the ($100K) list price confirmed on the official site on September 9, 2026. Assumptions and formulas match our FTMO/The5ers/Fintokei/Hantec expected-value comparison.

Conclusion

• At 1% risk per trade, Endurance ranks #1 at every skill level. At "medium" skill (55% win rate) it came out to +$15,042 for the year. EnhancedX (+$14,834) is a close second, followed by Enhanced (+$11,446) and Express (+$11,033). Endurance is also #1 at every skill level at 1.5% risk.
• If you size small at 0.5% per trade, EnhancedX ranks #1 (+$7,205 at "medium" skill). The target is low (8% → 4%), and the max-loss line doesn't move after a payout.
• EnhancedX falls the bigger you size. Its 35% consistency rule applies at payout as well as during evaluation, measured as "best day's profit ÷ net profit (total profit after losing days)". Bigger risk per trade means bigger daily swings, so payouts get held by the 35% rule more often.
• Enhanced and Express both have their max-loss line rise to the initial balance on the first payout. Since your post-payout cushion becomes only whatever profit you left in the account, even a strategy of banking 10–12% before withdrawing the excess doesn't get you to the top.
• Express ranks near the bottom at every lot size. Its 6% max loss trails the confirmed balance, and being a single phase aiming for 10% means it gets breached and re-bought more often.
• At zero skill (50% win rate), all 4 plans are negative. The smallest loss belongs to the cheaper Endurance (−$1,358 at 1% risk).

Hantec Trader plans (equivalent to $100K)

The daily loss baseline is whichever is higher of the balance and equity at server-time midnight. The first payout comes 14 days after your first trade, then every 14 days after that. The profit split is 80% across all plans; adding the "95% Reward Share" add-on (+30% on the price) raises it to 95%. The simulation uses the base 80% split with no add-on.

The official site has a standing coupon NEW35 (35% off all challenges, confirmed September 9, 2026). The simulation prices are list price. If you can buy at a discount, every plan's numbers improve by that much.

There are also rules that only apply to the funded account. If the combined floating loss across multiple positions hits 3% of the initial balance, it's an instant breach. New positions and closes are blocked for 3 minutes before and after major indicators. This model caps risk per trade at 1.5% with one position at a time, so it never triggers the 3% floating-loss rule. The news restriction isn't modeled.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades per day, 1:1 take-profit/stop-loss
• Daily loss is capped at 2.5% of the initial balance across all plans (if a loss would push you over 2.5%, no more trades that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3% (assuming the funded account's 3% floating-loss rule never triggers)
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win nets +0.95R, a loss costs −1.05R); for USD/JPY, this equals a 1.5-pip round-trip cost against a 30-pip SL/TP, or 2 pips against 40 pips
• On a breach, buy the same plan again; no scaling; payouts every 14 days; profit left in the account at year-end isn't counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Skill: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• The amount of profit left in the account at payout time (chosen as the best amount for each plan; EnhancedX withdraws everything by rule, so 0)

Not modeled

• The 3-minute no-trade window around major indicators (funded account)
• The 3-minute rule (if the net profit from trades closed within 3 minutes exceeds 30% of net profit over the period, profit adjustment or account suspension may apply)
• Add-ons like 95% Reward Share, and coupon discounts
• The scaling option of choosing a larger challenge size on passing

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With a 1:1 take-profit/stop-loss and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win nets +0.95R and a loss costs −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value over 1 year

1-year expected value = average payout received − average fee paid

• Payout received = withdrawal amount × profit split (80%)
• Fee paid = fee × number of purchases in the year (buying again every time you breach)
• Hantec has no fee refund, so the "fee refunded" term is zero

The loss is capped at "fee × number of purchases," while there's no ceiling on the payouts from an account that passes. Because of this asymmetry, a slightly negative expected value per trade can still turn positive over a full year. The three averages can't be derived analytically, so we ran a full year of trading 20,000 times under the actual rules and averaged the results (Monte Carlo method).

In USD/JPY terms, a 1.5-pip round-trip cost corresponds to a 30-pip SL/TP, and 2 pips corresponds to 40 pips, at the same weight as this model. On a $100K account risking 1% ($1,000) per trade, that's 5 lots at 30 pips or 3.75 lots at 40 pips. The lot-size and leverage calculations are laid out in detail in our 4-firm comparison article.

0.5% risk per trade: average take-home minus fees, 1 year

The probability of ending in the black ("medium" skill) was Express 54%, Enhanced 41%, EnhancedX 72%, and Endurance 57%.

1.0% risk per trade

The probability of ending in the black ("medium" skill) was Express 67%, Enhanced 71%, EnhancedX 79%, and Endurance 83%.

1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, one loss puts you at a point where a second loss would exceed 2.5% for the day, so trading stops there for the day.

The probability of ending in the black ("medium" skill) was Express 67%, Enhanced 74%, EnhancedX 57%, and Endurance 82%.

Why the results differ

EnhancedX's 35% consistency rule requires that "best day's profit ÷ total profit × 100" be 35% or less to pass or withdraw (the official formula is Best Trading Day's Profit / Total Profit; we treat total profit as net profit after losing days). The add-on "Remove Consistency Stage 1 & 2" is described as "CHALLENGE PHASE ONLY", so the 35% rule stays in place for payouts on the funded account. Going over isn't a breach — you keep trading without beating your best day until the score drops to 35% or below. The bigger your risk per trade, and the more your method scores big on a single day, the longer EnhancedX makes you wait, both during evaluation and at payout. In that case, Endurance — which has no consistency rule — is more stable.

The post-payout rules for Enhanced and Express are explained with official examples in our comparison of the 4 Hantec plans.

Which one should you buy?

Automated trading (EA) can be used across all 4 challenge-series plans on MT5. Third-party EAs are allowed too, but not with default settings or widely shared presets left as-is. Using the same EA strategy across multiple accounts or multiple people, and "challenge-passing" EAs, are both disallowed. Instant-series accounts (Instant Funding, Instant Lite, Instant24) allow no EA or bot at all.

FAQ

Q. Is Hantec Trader's expected value positive?

It depends on your skill. At a 55% win rate (+0.05R per trade), all 4 plans are positive at 1% risk, with Endurance at #1 at +$15,042 for the year. At a 50% win rate (−0.05R), all 4 are negative. Choosing a plan doesn't create an edge that isn't there.

Q. Does Hantec Trader refund the fee?

No. We confirmed on the official help center that the fee is not refunded whether you pass or withdraw. Compared to a firm like FTMO 2-Step, where the fee is refunded from the first payout, this is a disadvantage. The simulation also assumes zero refund.

Q. What happens to the max loss when you withdraw from Hantec Trader?

It depends on the plan. For Express and Enhanced, the max-loss line locks to the initial balance on the first payout. On a $100K account, that means a breach the moment the balance drops below $100,000 after that. EnhancedX and Endurance don't move — they stay at 92% of the initial balance.

Q. Do I have to withdraw all my profit with EnhancedX?

Yes. EnhancedX requires you to withdraw the full profit in one lump sum every time, with a minimum withdrawal of 2% of the initial balance ($2,000 on a $100K account). The 35% consistency rule is also checked at payout. Since the line doesn't move, you still keep an 8% cushion even after withdrawing everything.

Q. Can I use Hantec Trader from Japan?

Yes. Japan is not on the restricted-country list. The only trading platform listed in the official help center is MT5.

Q. Can I run this with my own numbers?

We've published the simulation engine and this article's plan config (JSON). Running python sim-prop-ev.py hantectrader.json reproduces the same numbers as this article's tables. You can change the price (e.g. after a coupon) or add plans and re-run it (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 Hantec Trader guide / Compare Hantec Trader plans
• 📊 FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, and Hantec expected-value comparison
• 📊 Comparing Hantec's 4 plans (post-payout drawdown)
• 📊 FTMO vs Hantec: which should you buy?

Sources: Hantec Trader help center — "Express (1 Step)," "Enhanced (2 Step)," "EnhancedX (2 Step Consistency)," "Endurance (3-step Challenge)" (confirmed September 27, 2026), Hantec Trader official site (pricing and coupons, confirmed September 9, 2026).