What's BrightFunded's Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of 1-Step, 2-Step Bright, and 2-Step Classic Shows the Two 2-Steps Nearly Double the 1-Step [September 2026]

※ Rules and prices were checked against BrightFunded's official site and official help center on September 27, 2026. BrightFunded's challenge fee is in euros; it's converted here at €1 = $1.146.

Conclusion

• The two-step plans, 2-Step Bright and 2-Step Classic, are where BrightFunded's expected value is high. At 1% risk per trade and "medium" edge (55% win rate), the annual figure was +$19,793 (Bright) and +$19,375 (Classic) for the year — essentially a tie.
• The 1-Step comes in last of the three at every lot size and every edge level. Under the same conditions it was +$10,682 — roughly half of the two-step plans.
• The 1-Step is weaker because its max loss is a tight 6%, and the line trails upward as equity rises to its highest point. With only 6% of loss room against a 10% target, you end up buying back in roughly twice as often as with the two-step plans.
• Between the two two-step plans, Bright comes out slightly ahead when you're risking small (0.5-1% per trade), and Classic comes out slightly ahead when you're risking bigger (1.5% per trade). The gap is only a few hundred dollars, so either choice is fine either way.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), every plan and every lot size is negative. Since the challenge fee is never refunded, there's no plan choice that turns this into a win on its own.

BrightFunded's plans ($100K)

As of September 27, 2026, a 3rd-anniversary sale with code 3YEARS is showing 30% off. The $100K plan is €347.90 for 1-Step and Classic, and €333.90 for Bright. No end date is stated, so this article's calculations use the list price. Results at the sale price are given later in the FAQ.

The daily loss floor is "the higher of the previous day's closing balance or equity, minus 3-5% of the initial balance." It's updated daily at 23:30-23:59 Central European Time (6:30-6:59 JST, or 7:30-7:59 JST during winter time). The rules in this article are for accounts purchased on or after April 13, 2026; accounts bought before that (Original Accounts) run under different rules.

The 1-Step's max loss is set 6% below the account's highest equity reached. Once equity hits +6% of the initial balance, the line stops at the initial balance and doesn't rise any further. Since the line also rises on floating profit, simply having that floating profit evaporate brings you closer to disqualification (this model doesn't track floating P&L, so we trail it against confirmed balance instead).

Whether the max-loss line still moves after a payout on a funded account isn't stated in the official help center. This article calculates it as staying fixed at the same line as during evaluation, unaffected by payouts.

Simulation assumptions

Held fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades per day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of the initial balance across all plans (once the next loss would exceed 2.5%, no more trades that day)
• Per-trade risk, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size fixed at r% of the initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of the risk per trade (a win is +0.95R, a loss is -1.05R)
• On disqualification, immediately buy the same plan again; no scaling; profit left in the account at year-end isn't counted
• Payouts: 30 days after the first trade (21 trading days), then every 14 days (10 trading days) after that
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Edge: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Per-trade risk r (0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%)
• The amount of profit left in the account at each payout (the best amount was chosen per plan)

Not included in this model

• The Evaluation Profit Reward (15% of profit earned during evaluation): growing a funded account by 10% and claiming the reward gets you a new funded account with 15% of your evaluation-phase profit added to the initial balance (requires a support request). The conditions are demanding, so it isn't included. Including it would boost the upside for anyone who grows a funded account substantially.
• Restrictions on trading around major news releases (±5 minutes), holding positions over the weekend, and differences in trading fees (FX is $3/lot, indices are free)
• Paid add-ons like the 90% profit-split upgrade (+20% on the fee) or the 100% challenge-fee refund add-on
• Scaling (accounts grow 30% at a time once you've made 10%+ profit over 4 months, been profitable for 2+ months, and made 2+ payouts)

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1 and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is -1.05R. With win rate p:

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value per year

Annual expected value = average payouts received over the year − average challenge fees paid

• Payouts received = amount withdrawn × profit split (80%)
• Challenge fees paid = challenge fee × number of purchases over the year (buying again every time you're disqualified)
• Since BrightFunded doesn't refund the challenge fee, "fee returned" is zero

The loss is capped at "challenge fee × number of purchases," while there's no ceiling on the payouts from a passed account. Because of that shape, combinations where the per-trade expected value is only slightly negative can still come out positive over a year. This average can't be derived analytically, so we ran a full year of trading 20,000 times under the actual rules and took the average (Monte Carlo method).

The 0.05R cost corresponds, for USD/JPY, to a 1.5-pip round-trip spread plus commission against a 30-pip stop/take-profit, or 2 pips round-trip against a 40-pip setup. At $100K with 1% risk per trade, that's 5 lots for a 30-pip stop, or 3.75 lots for a 40-pip stop. The detailed lot-size and cost math is in the 4-firm comparison article.

0.5% per trade: average annual payouts minus fees paid

1.0% per trade

At "medium" edge, the probability of finishing in the black was 66% for 1-Step, 90% for Bright, and 88% for Classic.

1.5% per trade

At 1.5% per trade, once you take one loss, a second loss would exceed 2.5%, so trading stops there for the day.

Why the gap exists

The 1-Step's weakness is clearest against 2-Step Classic, which costs the same. At 1% risk per trade and "medium" edge, annual fees paid were $4,716 for 1-Step versus $1,719 for Classic — about 2.7x as many buy-backs after disqualification for the 1-Step. Since the trailing 6% line persists even on the funded account, the best withdrawal approach for 1-Step was to leave 10% of profit in the account each time. For both two-step plans, the best approach was to withdraw everything with nothing left behind.

The two two-step plans are essentially even. Bright, being $23 cheaper, edges ahead slightly when you're risking small. Classic, with 2% more room, edges ahead slightly when you're risking big.

Which one to buy

FAQ

Q. Is BrightFunded's expected value positive?

It depends on your edge. With a 55% win rate (+0.05R per trade), both two-step plans reached the +$19,000s per year at 1% risk, with roughly a 90% chance of finishing in the black. At a 50% win rate, every plan and every lot size is negative. Since BrightFunded's challenge fee isn't refunded, the loss at zero edge is larger than at some other firms.

Q. Is BrightFunded's challenge fee refundable?

Not by default. According to the official help center, a refund is only available if you cancel within 30 days of purchase and haven't traded yet at all. Adding the "100% Challenge Fee Refund" add-on at purchase gets you a refund, but this article doesn't factor in paid options.

Q. When can I request a payout from BrightFunded?

You can request your first payout 30 days after your first trade on the funded account, and every 14 days after that (or every 7 days with the add-on). There's no minimum amount, but you need to close all positions and pending orders before requesting one. Payment is via USDC (ERC-20) or bank transfer (euros).

Q. What changes at the sale price (30% off with 3YEARS)?

Recalculating with $399 for 1-Step and Classic and $383 for Bright under the same conditions: at 1% risk and "medium" edge, 1-Step is +$12,128, Bright is +$20,481, and Classic is +$19,891. The ranking doesn't change. At 1.5% risk, even at zero edge, Bright turns slightly positive at +$977 and Classic at +$1,076.

Q. Can I use an EA (automated trading)?

Yes. The official help center states that EA use is permitted. However, DXtrade doesn't support APIs or automated trading, so if you're using an EA, it needs to be on MT5 or cTrader. High-frequency trading, grid trading, tick scalping, and arbitrage are all prohibited.

Q. Can I use this from Japan?

Yes. The restricted countries listed in the official help center are Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Vietnam, and Pakistan — Japan is not on the list. There's no Japanese-language site or support.

Q. I want to run this with my own conditions

We're publishing the simulation engine and the BrightFunded config file used in this article. You can change the price, win rate, and lot size and run it yourself (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 BrightFunded guide / BrightFunded pricing comparison
• 📝 BrightFunded review
• 📊 Expected value comparison: FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, Hantec

Sources: BrightFunded's official site — "1-Step," "2-Step Bright," "2-Step Classic" — and official help center — "BrightFunded 1-Step," "BrightFunded 2-Step – Bright," "BrightFunded 2-Step – Classic," "What are the current rules for the evaluation process?," "How Does My Daily Permitted Loss Work?," "How does my Reward Split work on my Funded Account?," "Can I get a refund?," "15% Evaluation Profit Reward," "Can I use EA?," "What countries are restricted?." All checked September 27, 2026.