What is Blueberry Funded's expected value? Running a 1-year simulation on Prime, 1-Step, Flex 1-Step, and Instant Elite puts Instant Elite 1st with an edge — and at the biggest loss with zero edge [September 2026]

※ Rules and pricing were confirmed on Blueberry Funded's official site (checkout screen) and official help center on September 27, 2026. Prices are list prices ($100K).

Conclusion

• At "medium edge" or above with 1% risk per trade, Instant Elite comes in 1st (+$28,272 over a year). That's because there's no evaluation — it's eligible for payouts from day one — and there's no daily loss limit.
• However, Instant Elite is expensive at $2,800, and at zero edge it posted the biggest loss of the four plans (−$4,670 at 1% risk per trade). That's because you pay $2,800 again every time you fail.
• The single biggest factor in deciding your risk per trade is the "per-trade-idea cap." Flex 1-Step caps it at 1% in both evaluation and funded stages; 1-Step and Instant Elite breach at 1.5% once funded. Only Prime 2-Step has no cap, so if you want to risk 1.5% per trade, Prime is your only option.
• At 0.5% risk per trade, no plan hits the cap, so Flex 1-Step had the smallest loss at zero-to-small edge, while Instant Elite led at "medium edge" and above.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), the only setups that came out positive were the ones that hit the cap (1-Step and Flex at 1.5% risk per trade). Choosing a plan alone doesn't create an edge.

Blueberry Funded's plans ($100K)

A "profit day" is any day where closed profit reaches 0.5% or more of the account. Floating profit doesn't count.

The per-trade-idea cap combines the loss on positions in the same instrument and direction, plus the loss on any re-entry in the same direction within 10 minutes of a losing trade. A breach occurs the instant a floating loss touches the cap, even momentarily. On 1-Step and Instant Elite, this closes the account on the first occurrence; on Flex 1-Step, the first occurrence is a warning (the position is auto-closed), and the account closes on the second.

Instant Elite's max loss is set 10% below the highest equity reached, and locks once it reaches the starting balance. It rises with floating profit too, so if an open position touches +10% even momentarily, the line locks at the starting balance right then.

Pricing and coupons: banners on the official site show PRIME50 (50% off for first-time buyers) and PRIME30 (30% off for existing customers), and the Flex 1-Step row on the pricing page shows FLEX30. Check at checkout which plans each code applies to. This article calculates using the list price you'd pay each time you buy again after failing.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed variables

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades per day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss is capped at 2.5% of the starting balance across all plans (if the next loss would push you past 2.5%, you stop trading for the day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the starting balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win nets +0.95R, a loss costs −1.05R)
• On failure, buy the same plan again; no scaling; payouts every 14 days (10 trading days); profit remaining in the account at year-end is not counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Variables tested

• Plan
• Skill level: 50% win rate (zero edge) / 52% (small edge) / 55% (medium edge) / 58% (strong edge)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• The amount of profit left in the account at payout time (the best amount for each plan was chosen)

Not included in this model

• The per-trade-idea cap (see the section above). Since a loss including cost is 1.05R, 1% risk per trade hits Flex 1-Step's cap, and 1.5% risk per trade hits 1-Step and Instant Elite's cap. Numbers affected by this are marked with ※ in the tables
• The Flex 1-Step rule where, if a single trade idea during evaluation exceeds 60% of the target, a 4-day-per-payout condition applies once funded (irrelevant here since this model caps at 1.5% per trade)
• Restrictions on trading around major indicators (Prime bans new entries within 2 minutes before/after; other plans ban trading around major indicators entirely)
• The rule that closes the account after 30 days without a closed trade
• Add-ons that speed up payouts (every 7 days +20%, on-demand +40%, etc.)

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1, and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win nets +0.95R and a loss costs −1.05R. With win rate p,

expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

One-year expected value

One-year expected value = average annual payout received + average fee refunded − average fee paid

• Payout received = amount withdrawn × split (80%, 85% for Flex 1-Step)
• Fee refunded: we found no mention in the official help center of the fee being refunded after passing, so this was calculated as zero
• Fee paid = fee × number of purchases in a year (buying again every time you fail)

Losses stop once you've spent "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passed account have no upper limit. Because of this shape, even a per-trade expected value that's slightly negative can produce combinations that come out positive over a year. These three averages can't be derived analytically, so we ran a year of trading under the official rules 20,000 times and took the average (Monte Carlo method).

A worked example in USD/JPY

Assuming a 1.5-pip round-trip spread and commission for USD/JPY, a 30-pip stop/target makes the cost 5% of risk (0.05R) — the same weight as this article's assumptions. At $100K with 1% risk per trade, that's $1,000 of risk, and since 1 pip on a standard lot (100,000 units) is about $6.667, a 30-pip stop means 5 lots. A win nets +$950, a loss costs −$1,050. See the detailed math in FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec expected value comparison.

If you traded Flex 1-Step this way, the floating loss would touch 1% ($1,000) before the stop loss is even hit. To avoid the cap on Flex 1-Step, you need to keep your risk per trade clearly below 1%.

At 0.5% risk per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

At 0.5% risk per trade, no plan reaches the per-trade-idea cap.

At 1.0% risk per trade

※ Flex 1-Step breaches once the floating loss on a trade idea reaches 1%. At 1% risk per trade, you'd hit the cap on every losing trade, so this isn't realistically tradable. The figure shown is the calculated value with no cap applied. Among the three plans you can actually trade this way, 1-Step leads at zero edge (−$1,469), and Instant Elite leads at "small edge" and above.

At 1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, once you take one loss, the next loss would push you past the 2.5% daily cap, so trading stops there for the day.

※ 1-Step and Instant Elite cap at 1.5% once funded, and Flex 1-Step caps at 1%, so none of these are realistically tradable at 1.5% risk per trade. Prime 2-Step is the only plan you can trade at 1.5% risk per trade.

Why the gap exists

Comparing at 1% risk per trade, Instant Elite's average fee paid was $31,829 at zero edge (buying the $2,800 plan about 11 times a year), and still $27,070 at "medium edge." Even so, it comes in 1st at "medium edge" because its average payout, $55,342, is more than double every other plan's. Instant Elite is a plan for people who have the capital to keep buying again and are confident in their win rate.

Prime 2-Step reached funded status 58% of the time at 1% risk per trade and zero edge, with an average fee paid of $5,139. Looking at the numbers alone it ranks lowest, but it's the only plan that doesn't breach for a style that stacks positions in the same instrument, or that risks 1.5%+ per trade.

Which one should you buy

EAs (automated trading) are only allowed if you built them yourself, and only after getting support's approval in advance. Market-bought, free, or third-party-built EAs are not allowed, even if you change the settings.

FAQ

Q. Is Blueberry Funded's expected value positive?

At "medium edge" (55% win rate, +0.05R per trade), it was positive across every plan and lot size. At 1% risk per trade, Instant Elite comes to +$28,272 over a year, and Prime 2-Step to +$20,131. At zero edge (50% win rate), every setup that stays under the per-trade-idea cap came out negative.

Q. Is Blueberry Funded's fee refunded?

As of the official help center on September 27, 2026, we found no mention of a mechanism for the fee to be returned after passing. This article calculates with no refund.

Q. When can I withdraw (get a payout) from Blueberry Funded?

Every plan pays out every 14 days, counted from when the funded account starts. Prime requires 3 profit days (0.5%+) per payout, and Instant Elite requires 5. 1-Step and Instant Elite let you request once profit reaches $100, and Flex 1-Step once it reaches 1% of the account size. Add-ons can shorten this to every 7 days or on-demand.

Q. How does Instant Elite's max loss move?

The line sits 10% below the highest equity reached, and rises as that high water mark rises. Once the line reaches the starting balance, it locks there and doesn't move again. The high water mark updates with floating profit too, so if an open position touches +10% before you close it, the line locks at the starting balance right then.

Q. How much should I worry about the per-trade-idea cap?

It's the single biggest factor in deciding your risk per trade. Flex 1-Step caps it at 1% starting in evaluation; 1-Step and Instant Elite cap it at 1.5% once funded. Given costs and the chance of slippage on your stop, you need to trade clearly below the cap (around 0.8% for Flex, around 1.2% for 1-Step and Instant Elite). If you want to trade without worrying about the cap, go with Prime 2-Step.

Q. I want to run this with my own settings

We've published the simulation script and the Blueberry Funded config file used in this article. Run python sim-prop-ev.py blueberryfunded.json to get the same tables. You can also plug in post-coupon prices and run it that way (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 Blueberry Funded guide
• 📊 Compare Blueberry Funded's plans
• 📊 FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec expected value comparison
• 📊 Is Moneta Instant Pro's half-price offer worth it? (compared with Blueberry Instant)

Sources: Blueberry Funded official site — "Checkout"; official help center — "What is the Prime Challenge?," "Prime Reward Structure," "1-Step Challenge: Complete Guide," "What are the rules on a Flex 1-Step account?," "How do payouts work on a Flex 1-Step account?," "Instant Elite: Complete Guide," "How many active trading days do I need?," "1.5% Risk Per Trade Idea Rule," "Do you allow bots and EA trading?." All confirmed September 27, 2026.