What's E8 Markets' Expected Value? Simulating E8 One, E8 Pro, and E8 Signature Over 1 Year: E8 Pro Wins at 1% Risk, E8 One Wins If You Size Up [September 2026]

※ Rules and prices were confirmed on E8 Markets' official site (the pricing configurator) and official help center on September 27, 2026. Prices shown are list price; only the first order gets 25% off with code E8. All figures are calculated for a $100K account.

Conclusion

• At 1% risk per trade and "medium" skill, E8 Pro (100% split) ranks first. This article's common engine puts it at +$22,886 for the year. Even in the separate calculation that adds E8 Pro's "2% daily profit cap" and "payouts capped at 50% of profit," it's +$13,909 — still first place.
• However, E8 Pro's expected value is cut down substantially by those same two mechanisms. At 1% risk and "medium" skill, the 100% split goes from +$22,886 to +$13,909 — down about 40%. At 1.5% risk it goes from +$30,845 to +$9,076 — down about 70%.
• The bigger you size and the higher your skill, the more E8 One pulls ahead. In the comparison that includes both mechanisms, at 1.5% risk and "medium" skill, E8 One comes in at +$15,956 versus E8 Pro (100% split) at +$9,076. E8 Pro can only grow 2% a day, so sizing up doesn't help it grow further.
• E8 Signature ranked last under every condition in the common engine. Its max loss is a tight 3%, and it trails the highest end-of-day balance. Payouts are also capped at $2,250 per request with $3,000 always held back.
• The fee is never refunded. At zero edge (50% win rate), every plan is negative except E8 Pro at 1.5% risk per trade.

E8 Markets' plans (for a $100K-equivalent account)

E8 One and E8 Pro let you choose max loss and profit split at purchase. For this article we used E8 One's default "6% max loss, 80% split," and for E8 Pro we ran both the 80% and 100% split at "8% max loss." Changing E8 Pro's max loss to 6% or 10% also changes the target to the same percentage ($468 at 6%, $539 at 10%).

E8 Pro payouts work in two stages. First, 50% of the profit becomes payable, and you receive that amount times the split rate. The remaining 50% stays in the account as room below the max loss. Since the max-loss line rises to the initial balance on the first payout, only that remaining 50% is your cushion from then on.

Simulation assumptions

Calculated under the same assumptions as our 4-firm comparison article.

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of initial balance across every plan (once you're one more loss away from exceeding 2.5% for the day, you stop trading for the day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size fixed at r% of initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (win = +0.95R, loss = −1.05R)
• On a fail, the same plan is repurchased at list price; no scaling; payouts every 14 days; profit left in the account at year-end is not counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Skill: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• Amount of profit left in the account at payout time (we picked whichever amount was best for each plan)

Not modeled

• E8 Pro's "2% daily profit cap" and "payouts capped at 50% of profit." The common engine doesn't have either of these two. See the "Adding E8 Pro's two mechanisms" section below for a separate calculation that adds them to the engine.
• The consistency rule only applies at the funded stage, but the engine applies it during evaluation too (a slightly stricter treatment that delays passing the evaluation somewhat).
• E8 Signature's max loss rises based on "end-of-day balance," but the engine raises it based on "balance at the moment of trade close" (slightly stricter). The payout cap uses the 1st–2nd payout figure of $2,250 for every payout (stricter), and the 2nd-payout-onward condition of "5 days with ≥0.3% profit" is also applied to the first payout as "5 days with ≥0.5% profit" (stricter).
• Payouts are daily for E8 Pro and on-demand for E8 One and E8 Signature, but we aligned all plans to every 14 days.
• E8 One's funded-stage ban on trading ±5 minutes around news events, and E8 Signature's no-overnight-carry rule (full close at 23:00 server time). This article assumes day-trading that avoids entering right before or after news events.
• The discretionary clause in the terms that lets E8 "cap risk at 1% per trade idea" if it detects prohibited behavior.

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1 and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win nets +0.95R and a loss costs −1.05R. With win rate p:

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value per year

Expected value per year = average payout received over the year − average fee paid

• Payout received = withdrawal amount × split rate (80%; 100% for E8 Pro's 100%-split configuration)
• Fee paid = fee × number of times purchased in the year (repurchased every time you fail)
• E8 Markets doesn't refund the fee, so there's no "refunded fee" term

Losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passing account can grow without limit. Because of this shape, a plan can end up positive over a year even when the expected value per trade is slightly negative. The three averages can't be derived from a formula alone, so we ran 20,000 simulated years of trading under the actual rules and averaged the results.

A worked example in USD/JPY

If USD/JPY's spread and commission round-trip to 1.5 pips, a 30-pip stop-loss/take-profit corresponds to this article's "0.05R cost" assumption (40 pips at 2 pips of cost). On $100K at 1% risk per trade ($1,000), a 30-pip stop-loss means 5 lots, an effective leverage of 5x. Even at 1.5% risk that's 7.5x, which still fits within E8's FX leverage cap of 1:30. The full details of this calculation are in our 4-firm comparison article.

0.5% risk per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

Probability of finishing positive (medium skill): E8 One 83% / E8 Pro 80% split 74% / E8 Pro 100% split 74% / E8 Signature 60%

1.0% risk per trade

Probability of finishing positive (medium skill): E8 One 71% / E8 Pro 80% split 91% / E8 Pro 100% split 91% / E8 Signature 63%

1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, once you've taken one loss, one more loss would exceed the 2.5% daily cap, so trading stops there for the day.

Probability of finishing positive (medium skill): E8 One 74% / E8 Pro 80% split 92% / E8 Pro 100% split 93% / E8 Signature 56%

Adding E8 Pro's two mechanisms

The three tables above are results from the same common engine used for the other firms. Since the common engine doesn't have E8 Pro's two special mechanisms, E8 Pro comes out looking better than it really is. So we added the following two to the engine and recalculated E8 Pro only (these additions aren't in the published engine):

• The 2% daily profit cap: any daily profit over 2% is wiped from the balance at end of day. Once the next win would push the day past 2%, trading stops for the day.
• Payouts capped at 50% of profit: only half of "balance − initial balance" is withdrawable. You can't withdraw again until the balance has grown at least 1% since the last payout.

The random numbers are the same, and we confirmed that removing the two additions reproduces the E8 Pro figures in the tables above to the dollar. E8 One and E8 Signature figures are unchanged from the tables above.

With only the 2% daily cap added, results don't change at 0.5% risk per trade (even 3 wins in a day only gets to +1.425%, short of 2%). At 1% risk it drops by a bit over 10%, and at 1.5% risk by about 60%. That's because at 1.5% risk, a single win already puts you at +1.425%, so you can't go for a second win. Adding "payouts capped at 50% of profit" on top of that increases the profit left sitting in the account, which increases both the amount stranded at year-end and the amount wiped out on a fail.

Why the results differ

E8 Pro's 100% split only costs $98 more at list price. In the common engine, the 100% split came out ahead under every condition except "zero" skill at 0.5% risk. Even in the calculation that adds the two mechanisms, the 100% split wins at "medium" skill or above regardless of lot size (the 80% split is only slightly ahead at small lot sizes with zero-to-small skill).

E8 One's max loss rises every time a trade closes in profit, locking at the initial balance once you reach +6%. If you hit a losing streak before then, you can breach the line as it rises and fail. Once it's locked, the line doesn't rise any further and doesn't fall on a payout either — so withdrawing and lowering the balance directly eats into your remaining cushion.

Which one to buy

If you choose E8 Pro, the practical rule to set for yourself is: "once the day's profit reaches 2% minus my next take-profit distance, stop opening new positions for the day." Official help states that splitting a close across multiple orders, or closing across a day boundary to dodge the cap, can be aggregated as a single trade idea and counted against a single day.

FAQ

Q. Is E8 Markets' expected value positive?

It depends on your skill. At 1% risk per trade and a 55% win rate (expected value +0.05R per trade), even the calculation that adds E8 Pro's two mechanisms comes out to +$13,909 a year for E8 Pro (100% split) and +$12,561 for E8 One. At a 50% win rate (zero skill), every result is negative except E8 Pro at 1.5% risk per trade. Choosing a plan doesn't create an edge on its own.

Q. Does E8 Markets refund the fee?

No. The official help center's refund policy states there is currently no mechanism to refund the fee from the first payout. Refunds only happen if you haven't traded at all on the challenge and it's within 30 days of purchase. Amounts paid in crypto are not refunded even if you haven't traded.

Q. How do E8 Pro payouts work?

You can request one every day, but you can only withdraw up to 50% of "balance − initial balance"; the other 50% stays in the account. You need at least 1% profit (of the initial balance) since your last payout. Since the max-loss line rises to the initial balance on the first payout, only that remaining 50% is your cushion from then on. The 50% held back isn't confiscated — it factors into the calculation for your next payout.

Q. What happens if I exceed E8 Pro's "2% daily profit cap"?

The excess is automatically deducted from the balance between 00:00 and 01:00 server time the next day. For $100K, that's a cap of $2,000 a day. In the official help center's example, a day that opens at $102,000 and closes at $105,500 has the $1,500 above the $104,000 cap deducted. This applies the same during evaluation and on a funded account.

Q. What's the minimum payout on E8 One?

Your take-home needs to exceed 50% of the daily loss cap. For the 6%-max-loss configuration, the daily loss cap is 4% ($4,000), so you need at least $2,001 take-home, or $2,501 gross at an 80% split. At the earliest, you can request a payout 3 days into the funded stage. Since the max-loss line doesn't fall on a payout, official help recommends "don't withdraw all your profit — leave 2–3% in the account."

Q. I want to run this with my own numbers

We've published this article's simulation engine and E8 Markets' config file. Running python sim-prop-ev.py e8markets.json 20000 reproduces the three tables above (requires Python and numba). The separate calculation with E8 Pro's 2% daily cap and 50%-of-profit payout cap is not included in this engine.

Related

• 🏢 E8 Markets guide / Compare E8 Markets plans
• 📊 FTMO / The5ers / Fintokei / Hantec expected-value comparison
• 📊 Is E8 Pro Worth Buying? (The 2% Daily Cap and the First-Payout Loophole)
• 📊 E8 Pro vs. E8 One: Which Should You Buy?

Sources: E8 Markets, "Compare Funded Accounts (pricing configurator)"; help center articles "E8 One," "Payout request on E8 One," "E8 Pro," "Payout request from E8 Pro," "Daily profit cap," "E8 Signature," "Payout caps and buffers for E8 Signature explained," "What is Payout On Demand?," "Refund Policy." All confirmed September 27, 2026.