What's Eightcap Challenges' Expected Value? One Phase Beats Two Phase in a 1-Year Simulation [September 2026]

※ Rules and pricing were confirmed on September 27, 2026 against Eightcap Challenges' official site and terms (Rules and Conditions V2.3, dated September 21, 2026, and the General Terms and Conditions). The assumptions and formulas are the same as in FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec: expected value compared.

⚠️ Whether Japan-based traders can buy or withdraw is unconfirmed. Japan does not appear on the restricted-country list in the terms. However, third-party information suggests the parent company Eightcap's brokerage accounts are not available to Japanese residents, and we have not been able to confirm this ourselves. Contact support@challenges.eightcap.com directly before purchasing.

Conclusion

• At 1% risk per trade and "medium" skill (55% win rate), One Phase comes out on top, at +$24,987 for the year. Two Phase came in at +$20,735.
• One Phase has a tighter setup — a 10% target, 8% max loss, 4% daily loss — but being a single step means it reaches Funded sooner, extending the number of days you can earn. If you cap daily losses at 2.5%, you never even touch the 4% daily limit.
• At every risk level tested (0.5%, 1%, 1.5%), One Phase came out ahead once skill was "small" or better. Two Phase only won in one single case: 0.5% risk at zero skill.
• There's no refund on the challenge fee. Since the max-loss line doesn't move after a withdrawal, you retain the same 8% (One Phase) / 10% (Two Phase) cushion post-withdrawal.
• At zero skill (50% win rate), only the 1.5% risk level produced a thin profit for either plan (One Phase +$3,201, Two Phase +$770); everything else was negative.

Eightcap Challenges plans ($100K equivalent)

Daily loss is calculated as "previous day's balance × the cap %," and you fail if that day's equity loss exceeds it. Max loss is a fixed percentage of the initial balance that neither balance nor equity may fall below. Two Phase's target is 9% → 5% for accounts opened on or after February 23, 2026 (accounts opened before that are 10% → 8%).

Profit Distribution is a cap, applied when you request a withdrawal, on "what share of the requested amount can come from a single day's profit." It's 30% for One Phase and 35% for Two Phase (25%/30% for accounts opened before February 11, 2026). It doesn't apply during the evaluation.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, 1:1 risk/reward
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of initial balance across all plans (once a loss would push that day past 2.5%, no more trades that day)
• Per-trade risk, floating loss, and daily loss are all capped at 3%
• Position size fixed at r% of the initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (+0.95R on a win, -1.05R on a loss). In USD/JPY terms, a round-trip cost of 1.5 pips matches a 30-pip stop/target, and 2 pips matches a 40-pip stop/target
• On failure, rebuy the same plan; no scaling; withdrawals every 14 days; year-end profit left in the account isn't counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Skill: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• Amount of profit left in the account at withdrawal (optimized per plan — the best result in every case was "withdraw everything")

Not modeled

• The Profit Distribution rule at withdrawal (30%/35%). This simulation's engine can only apply a consistency rule to "both the evaluation and withdrawal stages" together, and can't reproduce Eightcap's actual rule of applying it only at withdrawal, so it was left out. The effect is small for evenly-sized trades, but for strategies that make most of their profit in a few big days, real withdrawal amounts would be capped more than shown here, making the true numbers worse than in this article
• Minimum trading days at withdrawal (5 / 7 days). Since the model trades daily over a 14-day cycle, this is never triggered
• The ban on trading 10 minutes around high-impact news at the withdrawal stage, the 10-simultaneous-position cap, and per-trade lot caps (e.g. 40 lots on FX)
• Add-ons like the 90% split or early withdrawal

The expected-value formulas

Expected value per trade

With a 1:1 risk/reward and a cost of 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win nets +0.95R and a loss costs -1.05R. With win rate p:

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value per year

Annual EV = average annual payout received − average fees paid

• Payout received = amount withdrawn × split rate (80%)
• Fees paid = fee × number of times purchased in a year (rebuying every time you fail)
• Eightcap Challenges doesn't refund the fee, so the "fee refunded" term is zero

Losses are capped by "fee × times purchased," while payouts from a passed account have no ceiling. Because of this shape, even a slightly negative per-trade EV can turn into a positive annual number. Since these three averages can't be derived analytically, we ran a full year of trading 20,000 times each, following the rules exactly, and averaged the results (Monte Carlo method).

In USD/JPY terms, a round-trip cost of 1.5 pips lines up with a 30-pip stop/target under this model, and 2 pips with 40 pips. On a $100K account at 1% risk per trade ($1,000), that's 5 lots at 30 pips or 3.75 lots at 40 pips. Lot size and leverage calculations are detailed in the 4-firm comparison article.

0.5% risk per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

The probability of ending up in profit (medium skill) was 70% for Two Phase and 83% for One Phase.

1.0% risk per trade

The probability of ending up in profit (medium skill) was 91% for Two Phase and 96% for One Phase.

1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, a single loss puts the next loss over the 2.5% daily cap, so trading stops for the day at that point.

The probability of ending up in profit (medium skill) was 93% for Two Phase and 97% for One Phase.

Why the gap exists

At 1% risk per trade and "medium" skill, the share of runs that reached Funded at least once in the year was 99.8% for One Phase and 98.4% for Two Phase. The gap is small, but because One Phase gets there sooner, its total payouts end up larger (average annual payout: One Phase $27,684, Two Phase $22,619). Total fees paid were actually higher for One Phase ($2,697 vs. $1,884), but the payout gap outweighed it.

Since neither plan's max-loss line moves after a withdrawal, withdrawing everything every time — rather than leaving profit in the account — produced the best result in both cases.

Which to buy

EAs (automated trading) can be used on MT4, MT5, and TradeLocker. However, the terms state that if an automated or semi-automated trading error causes a failure, the account or trades won't be restored. Martingale, grid, hedging, and copy trading with others are banned.

FAQ

Q. Is Eightcap Challenges' expected value positive?

It depends on your skill. At a 55% win rate (per-trade EV +0.05R), 1% risk per trade produced +$24,987 for the year with One Phase and +$20,735 with Two Phase. At a 50% win rate (EV −0.05R), the result was negative except at the 1.5% risk level. Since the Profit Distribution rule at withdrawal isn't modeled, strategies that make most of their profit in a few big days would see worse real-world numbers than shown here.

Q. Can Eightcap Challenges be used from Japan?

Unconfirmed. Japan is not on the restricted-country list in the terms (dated September 21, 2026). However, there's third-party information suggesting the parent company Eightcap's brokerage accounts aren't available to Japanese residents. Challenges is simulated trading and is run by a separate Seychelles entity, Eightcap International Ltd, so the treatment could differ. We haven't been able to confirm this ourselves, so check with support before purchasing.

Q. Is Eightcap Challenges' fee refunded?

No. Under the terms, once the account is created and you start trading, the fee is non-refundable. It's only refunded if the account was never created. The simulation also uses zero for the refund.

Q. When can I withdraw from Eightcap Challenges?

You can request your first withdrawal 14 days after opening a Funded (Payout Stage) account, and every 14 days after your previous request from then on. Withdrawals are available from $100 (after split). At the withdrawal stage, you also need a minimum of 7 (One Phase) or 5 (Two Phase) trading days. The terms note you may be asked for a phone or video call as part of the withdrawal review.

Q. What is Profit Distribution?

It's a cap, applied when you request a withdrawal, on how much of the requested amount can come from a single day's profit. It's 30% for One Phase and 35% for Two Phase. For example, on Two Phase, if you made $3,500 in a single day, that day's profit can only cover up to 35% of your requested amount, so you'd need profit from other days too. It doesn't apply during the evaluation.

Q. I want to run this with my own assumptions

We've published the simulation engine and this article's plan config (JSON). Running python sim-prop-ev.py eightcapchallenges.json reproduces this article's tables exactly. You can change the price or split rate and rerun it (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 Eightcap Challenges guide / Eightcap Challenges plan comparison
• 📊 FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec: expected value compared

Sources: Eightcap Challenges official site (pricing and plan table), "Rules and Conditions V2.3 (dated September 21, 2026)," "General Terms and Conditions." All confirmed September 27, 2026.