What's the Expected Value of City Traders Imperium (CTI)? Running 1-Step and 2-Step for a Year Shows 2-Step on Top [September 2026]

※ Rules and prices were confirmed on City Traders Imperium's (CTI) official site and official help center on September 27, 2026. Prices are list price (USD).

Conclusion

• At 1% per trade or more, 2-Step comes out ahead. At 1% per trade and medium edge, 2-Step nets +$19,007 over a year vs. +$12,854 for 1-Step.
• 1-Step only wins at 0.5% per trade (+$5,865 vs. +$4,991 at medium edge). If you're risking small amounts, the speed of a single-step 8% target pays off.
• 1-Step's weakness is that its max loss is only 5%, and it trails the highest balance ever reached. Even at 1% per trade and medium edge, you're rebuying about 14 times per year on average, spending $6,365 in fees (vs. $1,616 for 2-Step).
• 2-Step's 10% max loss doesn't move, and its 5% daily loss won't get triggered if you stop at 2.5% per day. The larger you size, the more its wider room pays off.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), everything is negative except 2-Step at 1.5% per trade, which comes in at roughly break-even (+$56). Since there's no fee refund, if you have no edge, you simply lose the amount you spend on rebuys.

City Traders Imperium's plans ($100K equivalent)

A "profit day" is any day where the total of closed trades that day was 0.5% or more of the starting balance. On $100K, that means at least $500 in realized profit.

1-Step's max loss is "highest balance − 5%." If your balance climbs to $104,000, the fail line rises to $99,000. When you withdraw, that amount is subtracted from the highest balance before recalculating. In the official example, withdrawing $3,000 at a balance of $104,000 sets the line to $96,000. In other words, withdrawing doesn't shrink your 5% of room, but it also never expands it beyond 5%.

CTI advertises "balance-based drawdown." The line's position is set by settled balance. However, the official help center states that you're disqualified if balance including floating losses breaches the line. That doesn't mean holding a floating loss protects you from disqualification.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades per day, take-profit to stop-loss ratio of 1:1
• Daily loss is capped at 2.5% of the starting balance across every plan (once a further loss would push the day past 2.5%, no more trading that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss are all assumed to never exceed 3%
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the starting balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win is +0.95R, a loss is −1.05R). For USD/JPY, a round-trip cost of 1.5 pips corresponds to a 30-pip stop/target, and 2 pips corresponds to 40 pips
• On disqualification, the same plan is rebought at list price, no scaling, and any profit left in the account at year-end isn't counted
• The first payout comes on the day you satisfy "7 profit days + 2% net profit"; subsequent payouts follow every 21 trading days (about a month)
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Edge: win rate 50% (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• Amount of profit left in the account at payout time (the best amount was chosen for each plan)

Not included in this model

• The fine-grained tracking of 1-Step's trailing: CTI updates the highest balance every time a trade closes, but the model updates it only at end of day. This makes the model slightly more lenient
• 1-Step's payouts: the model withdraws all profit every time and resets the line to 95% of the starting balance. This matches the official formula only when the balance on the payout day equals the highest balance
• Conditions for subsequent payouts: the model requires "7 profit days" every time. Officially, 7 days is only required for the first payout, so the model is a bit stricter here. This makes almost no difference at 1% per trade, but 1-Step at 0.5% per trade comes out lower than in reality
• Mid-month payouts once cumulative profit hits 10%, VIP tiers (90%/100% split, weekly or anytime withdrawals), and scaling
• The 15% rebuy discount (the model always uses list price)
• The time-limited coupon (SINCE2018, 15% off through September 30, as of September 27, 2026)
• The rule requiring stop-losses within 60 seconds, and discretionary restrictions on gambling-style or one-sided trading (a 1% cap per trade idea can sometimes be imposed)

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With a 1:1 take-profit-to-stop-loss ratio and a cost of 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value over 1 year

1-year expected value = average payouts received over the year − average fees paid

• Payouts received = withdrawal amount × split rate (80%)
• Fees paid = fee × number of times purchased in the year (rebought each time you're disqualified)
• CTI has no fee refund, so "fee refunded" is zero

Losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passing account have no upper limit. Since these three averages can't be derived analytically, we ran 250 days' worth of trading under the rules 20,000 times and averaged the results (Monte Carlo method).

A concrete example in USD/JPY (at ¥150.000/$1)

A cost of 0.05R corresponds to a round-trip spread and commission of 1.5 pips on USD/JPY, with a 30-pip stop/target. On a $100K account with 1% risk per trade ($1,000), 1 pip is worth about $6.667 per lot, so the lot size is $1,000 ÷ (30 pips × $6.667) = 5 lots. A win nets +$950, a loss −$1,050. At a 2-pip cost, a 40-pip stop/target with 3.75 lots carries the same weight. The tighter the stop, the heavier the cost becomes. Details are covered in the 4-firm comparison article.

0.5% per trade: average annual net take-home minus fees

1.0% per trade

1.5% per trade

At 1.5% per trade, once you take one loss, a second loss would push the day past 2.5%, so trading stops there for the day.

Why the gap appears

Comparing the details at 1% per trade and medium edge makes the gap clear. 1-Step pays an average of $6,365 in fees per year, which divided by $449 works out to about 14 purchases. 2-Step pays $1,616, about 3 purchases. 1-Step reaches Funded quickly, but repeatedly gets knocked out by the 5% trailing line and rebought each time.

1-Step's payout mechanism resets your room back to 5% every time you take profit. Since leaving profit in the account doesn't widen your room, there's no benefit to keeping it there. In the model too, withdrawing the full amount produced the best results.

2-Step's advantage widens the more you size up. At 1.5% per trade and medium edge, 2-Step comes in at +$24,587 — roughly double 1-Step. Having a static 10% of room means you're less likely to get knocked out by a single losing streak even when sizing up.

Which one should you buy

If you want to use an off-the-shelf EA, 1-Step is your only option at CTI. In that case, keeping your risk per trade smaller makes you less likely to hit the trailing 5% line.

FAQ

Q. Is City Traders Imperium's expected value positive?

It depends on your edge. At a 55% win rate (expected value +0.05R per trade), at 1% per trade, 2-Step nets +$19,007 over a year and 1-Step nets +$12,854. At a 50% win rate, everything is negative except 2-Step at 1.5% per trade (+$56). Choosing a plan doesn't create a winning edge on its own.

Q. Is CTI's fee refundable?

No. The refund policy states that once you've placed even a single trade, no refund is given. If you haven't traded, you can request one within 7 days of purchase. Rebuying after disqualification comes with a 15% discount. Note also that the official help center states that if total payouts are less than or equal to the fee paid, payouts are processed as a refund to your card.

Q. When can I start withdrawing from CTI?

For the first payout, you can request any time once you have 7 profit days (0.5%+) and net profit of 2% (or $100, whichever is higher). From the second payout onward, it's the last 5 days of each month. If cumulative profit hits 10%, you can request without waiting for month-end. VIP Bronze lets you withdraw weekly, and Silver lets you withdraw any time. Review of a request takes up to 2 business days, followed by 1 business day for the transfer.

Q. What happens to 1-Step's trailing drawdown after a payout?

The fail line is "(highest balance − most recent withdrawal amount) − 5% of starting balance." The withdrawn amount is subtracted from the highest balance, so withdrawing never brings the line closer to you. On the other hand, it also never widens your room beyond 5%.

Q. If it's balance-based, does a floating loss avoid disqualification?

No, it doesn't. The line's position is set by settled balance, but the official help center states that you're disqualified if balance including floating losses breaches the line. Leaving a floating loss open is also subject to discretionary review as a one-sided bet.

Q. I want to run this with my own assumptions

We've published this article's config file and the simulation script. You can change the win rate, lot size, and price and rerun it (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 City Traders Imperium guide
• 📊 Compare City Traders Imperium's plans
• 📊 Expected value comparison: FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, Hantec
• 📝 Prop firms that allow martingale/averaging

Sources: City Traders Imperium, "1-Step Challenge," "2-Step Challenge," "Refund Policy"; help center, "1-Step Challenge," "2-Step Challenge," "Maximum Trailing Drawdown," "Max Daily Drawdown," "How Do I Request a Payout?." All confirmed September 27, 2026.