What's the expected value at Funded Trader Markets (FTM)? A 1-year simulation of 5 plans puts Instant Standard in 1st place; 2 Step Plus stalls on the '1% floating loss' rule [September 2026]

Note: rules and prices were confirmed on September 27, 2026 on Funded Trader Markets' official site (purchase screen) and official help center. All prices are list price ($100K). The site shows a SEP promo, but since its stated deadline ("15TH SEP") has already passed and it's still showing, it wasn't used in these calculations.

Conclusion

• At 1% risk per trade and "medium" edge, Instant Standard comes in 1st. That's +$34,086 for the year. But since the split rises in steps from 50% on the 1st payout to 80% by the 4th, this number is "the ceiling, calculated at 80%." Even if it stayed at 50% the whole time, it's +$17,451 — still ahead of the 2nd-place 1 Step Nitro (+$10,648).
• Instant Standard is strong because you can only withdraw the full amount, but every payout resets your max-loss room back to 5%. There's no evaluation, so every day from the day you pay the fee counts toward payouts.
• 2 Step Plus and Instant Plus turn into completely different accounts depending on your risk per trade. Both carry a Shield Risk Protocol: if floating loss exceeds 1% of balance, everything gets closed and the split drops. At 0.5% per trade it never triggers, and Instant Plus comes in at +$17,256 for 0.5% at "medium" edge. At 1% or more per trade, it triggers on every loss, and the split eventually drops to 20%, so neither one clears +$3,000 a year.
• Instant Pro gets worse the bigger you size up. Its 3% max loss is the same width as its 3% daily loss, and it keeps trailing the highest balance ever reached. At 1.5% per trade, it was negative at every skill level.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), the only ones that come out positive are Instant Standard at 0.5% and 1% per trade (at the 80% split) and Instant Plus at 0.5% per trade. Both are thin positives — picking a plan doesn't manufacture an edge.

Funded Trader Markets plans ($100K equivalent)

Daily loss is measured against "whichever is higher between balance and equity" at 17:00 US Eastern each day (6:00 AM JST in summer / 7:00 AM JST in winter), minus 4% of the starting balance (3% for the instant accounts).

On 2 Step Plus's max loss, the official help center only says "10%, fixed relative to the starting balance for the life of the account." There's no article explaining how the line moves after a withdrawal. This article calculates under the stricter assumption that the line rises to the starting balance after a withdrawal. The numbers if the line stays fixed at 90% of the starting balance are in the "Why the numbers diverge" section below.

Shield Risk Protocol (the 1% floating-loss rule)

2 Step Plus (funded accounts) and Instant Plus both carry a rule: floating loss can't exceed 1% of account balance. Cross it, and every position gets closed on the spot, and the split drops — 50% on the 1st violation, 40% on the 2nd, 30% on the 3rd, and permanently 20% on the 4th. If you choose the 90% add-on on 2 Step Plus, this rule also applies during the evaluation, and a 2nd violation fails you.

This model holds a single position until stop-loss, so floating loss maxes out at "risk per trade + cost."

• 0.5% per trade: floating loss maxes at 0.525%, which never triggers the rule. 2 Step Plus was calculated with the 90% add-on, Instant Plus at 80%.
• 1% and 1.5% per trade: floating loss exceeds 1% on every loss. Since adding the 90% add-on to 2 Step Plus fails you during the evaluation, it was calculated without the add-on. Even once funded, a few losses drop the split to 20%, so both 2 Step Plus and Instant Plus are calculated at a 20% split.

The Instant Standard / Pro split

The split rises with the number of payouts: 50% on the 1st, 60% on the 2nd, 70% on the 3rd, and 80% from the 4th on. This model can't represent the staged rise, so it shows the number calculated at 80% (the ceiling) alongside the number at 50% (the floor) side by side. The real outcome falls somewhere in between.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss is capped at 2.5% of the starting balance across every plan (if the next loss would push past 2.5%, no more trades are taken that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the starting balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (wins are +0.95R, losses are −1.05R). On USD/JPY, that's a 1.5-pip round-trip cost against a 30-pip stop/target, or 2 pips against 40 pips
• On failure, the same plan is bought again; no scaling; withdrawals every 14 days; profit left in the account at year-end doesn't count
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Edge: win rate 50% (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• How much profit is left in the account at each withdrawal (the best amount was chosen per plan; the two full-withdrawal-only instant accounts use 0)

Not modeled

• FTM's withdrawals are on-demand (you can request any time), but for consistency with articles on other firms this model uses a 14-day cycle
• 1 Step Nitro's split is 90% on the first $10,000, but this was calculated at 80% (understating results by up to $1,000 per account). The consistency rule differs between evaluation and funded, so the stricter 45% figure was used for both
• Instant Standard / Pro's max loss trails the "highest balance reached trade by trade," but the model substitutes the "highest balance at day's end" — the real number is a bit stricter than shown here
• The consistency rule's denominator is officially "total profit," but the model uses "sum of profitable days" — the model is a bit more lenient
• Not modeled: profit from trades closed in under a minute being voided (funded accounts), a $7/lot round-trip trading fee on FX and commodities, a 5% fee on crypto payouts, and accounts potentially closing after 30 days without a trade. Fees are assumed to be folded into the cost figure (5% of risk).

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1 and cost at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Even at "small," it's slightly negative per trade. The reason some plans still come out positive is the prop-firm structure described next.

Expected value for the year

Annual expected value = average payouts received during the year + average fee refunded − average fees paid

• Payouts received = withdrawal amount × split
• Fee refunded: 1 Step Nitro and 2 Step Plus both pay out a bonus equal to the fee once you receive your 3rd payout on the same account. Instant accounts have no such refund
• Fees paid = fee × number of purchases during the year (rebought every time you fail)

Losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passing account have no ceiling. Because of that shape, some plans come out positive over a year even though the per-trade expected value is slightly negative. These three averages can't be derived from a formula, so a full year of trading was run 20,000 times end-to-end following the rules exactly, and the results averaged (Monte Carlo method).

A concrete USD/JPY example

If USD/JPY's round-trip cost is 1.5 pips, with a 30-pip stop/target, cost comes out to 5% of risk. On a $100K account at 1% per trade ($1,000), that's 5 lots — +$950 on a win, −$1,050 on a loss. Since the daily cap is 2.5%, two losses in a row (−$2,100) ends the day. A detailed table of lot sizes and effective leverage is in the 4-firm comparison article.

0.5% per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

Instant Standard / Pro show "the number at 80% split (50% in parentheses)." 2 Step Plus was calculated with the 90% add-on, Instant Plus at an 80% split (since neither triggers the 1% floating-loss rule).

When the split stays close to 50%, Instant Plus (fixed at an 80% split) beats Instant Standard at every edge.

1.0% per trade

2 Step Plus and Instant Plus trigger the 1% floating-loss rule, so both are calculated at a 20% split.

1.5% per trade

At 1.5% per trade, once you lose once, the next loss would exceed 2.5%, so the day stops there. With the split staying at 50%, 1 Step Nitro beats Instant Standard at every edge.

Why the numbers diverge

With Instant Standard, a withdrawal resets the balance to the starting amount, and the max-loss line resets to 95% of the starting balance too. You can't widen the box by leaving profit in the account, but you get to restart with a clean 5% of room every time. Instant Pro shares the same "reset" design, but with only 3% of room and it overlapping the 3% daily loss, at 1%+ per trade it tends to fail before you can pull ahead.

2 Step Plus's numbers change depending on how the max-loss line behaves after a withdrawal. At 0.5% per trade, "medium" edge, it's +$3,450 assuming the line rises to the starting balance, or +$7,494 assuming the line stays fixed at 90% of the starting balance. Even assuming (unrealistically, since it would trigger the 1% floating-loss rule) that a 90% split could be kept at 1% per trade, it's +$14,463 under the rising-line assumption.

Which one to buy

FTM allows EAs (automated trading) on every account and every phase, but bans 7 categories of bots including HFT, tick scalping, and arbitrage. The strict IP-address and VPN restrictions, and the fact that its Trustpilot rating is suspended, are covered in detail in the FTM review article. Rather than buying a $100K account outright, it's safer to check whether a smaller size clears a payout first.

FAQ

Q. Which plan has the highest expected value at Funded Trader Markets?

In this model, Instant Standard came in 1st at every risk level from 0.5% to 1.5% at "medium" edge (when calculated at an 80% split). If the split stays at 50%, it's still 1st at 1% per trade, but Instant Plus takes over at 0.5%, and 1 Step Nitro (+$13,153) takes over at 1.5%.

Q. Isn't 2 Step Plus's split 90%?

The base split is 70%, and 90% is a free add-on. Both require that floating loss never exceed 1% of balance — cross it and the split drops 50% → 40% → 30% → 20% each time. If you add the 90% add-on, the same rule also applies during the evaluation, and a 2nd violation fails you. If your method can't keep risk per trade under 1%, it's safer to treat 2 Step Plus's split as effectively 20%.

Q. Is the FTM fee refundable?

The fee itself isn't refunded. However, 1 Step Nitro and 2 Step Plus both pay out a performance bonus equal to the fee (or more, depending on the promo) alongside your 3rd payout. Instant accounts and 1 Step Nitro X are excluded.

Q. When can you withdraw at FTM?

On demand — you can request any time once the conditions are met: the consistency rule (varies by plan), profit of at least 1% of the starting balance, and 5 days with 0.5%+ profit. You need to close all positions before requesting, and approval and transfer are said to happen within 24 business hours. Payouts are in USDT (TRC20) or via Rise, and crypto payouts carry a 5% fee.

Q. What happens to the max loss when you withdraw on Instant Standard?

Instant Standard and Instant Pro don't allow partial withdrawals — profit is withdrawn in full. Once you withdraw everything, the max-loss line resets to the same position as at the start ($95,000 for a $100K account, $97,000 for Pro). By contrast, 1 Step Nitro and Instant Plus allow partial withdrawals, and the line doesn't move on a withdrawal. If it has already reached the starting balance at +6%, withdrawing all your profit leaves you with zero room on the spot.

Q. I want to run this with my own conditions

The simulation script and the config file used in this article are both public. You can change the win rate, lot size, split, and withdrawal conditions and re-run it (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 Funded Trader Markets guide / Compare FTM's plans
• 📝 Funded Trader Markets (FTM) review
• 📊 FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, Hantec expected-value comparison

Sources: Funded Trader Markets, "Purchase screen (program configuration)," official help center "Challenge Programs," "Instant Programs," "Payments and Withdrawals," "Is there a maximum floating loss rule on 2-Step Plus accounts?," "When will the refund for my purchase fee be processed?," "Is there a requirement for a minimum number of trading days?." All confirmed September 27, 2026.