What is PipFarm's expected value? Running a 1-year simulation on the 4 Classic/Consistency plans puts the cheapest, Consistency 1-Stage, in 1st place [September 2026]

※ Rules and pricing were confirmed on PipFarm's official help center (help.pipfarm.com) on September 27, 2026. Prices are USD list prices. PipFarm's rules changed significantly in August–September 2026, so accounts bought before then still run under different rules.

Conclusion

• Of the four plans, Consistency 1-Stage ($280) came in 1st. At skill level "small edge" or above, it's the best at every lot size. At 1% risk per trade and "medium edge," it comes to +$9,185 over a year.
• Consistency 2-Stage (same mode, +$7,399) came in 2nd. The Classic mode costs $210 more than Consistency, yet loses to it at every risk size and skill level when comparing plans of the same format (2-Stage +$5,624, 1-Stage +$6,601).
• The fee is what drives this. Consistency is $280 at $100K — less than 60% of Classic's ($490) — and its target is also lower. The 40% consistency rule doesn't get in the way much for a style that wins and loses uniformly at 1:1.
• PipFarm starts the split at 70%, caps each payout (starting at 3% on the first payout), and shrinks your max-loss cushion starting from the second payout. Because of this, take-home comes out smaller than at firms like FTMO, even at the same skill level.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), every condition tested here came out negative.

PipFarm's plans (at $100K equivalent)

You buy a PipFarm challenge as a combination of mode (Classic, Endurance, Consistency) × format (2-Stage, 1-Stage static, 1-Stage trailing). For the same mode and size, the price is the same regardless of format. This article calculates the 4 plans: Classic and Consistency, each in 2-Stage and 1-Stage (static) form.

The mechanism that shrinks your max-loss cushion (the Sustainable Scaling Program) started on August 19, 2026. Nothing happens on your first payout. From the second payout on, your "max-loss cushion" shrinks by the same amount you withdrew. For example, if you take out $4,000 on your second payout on a Classic 2-Stage account, the cushion shrinks from $9,000 to $5,000. The cushion never drops below 1% of the starting balance. On the 5th payout, the account gets a top-up of 10% of the starting balance (at rank 0), and the cushion is restored to its original proportion.

The split rises one tier with every payout. Your first payout is always 70%, the second is 75%, the third is 80%, and so on, up to the cap for your current rank. Rank is determined by experience points (XP), which accumulate from buying challenges, passing, making payouts, and so on.

Funded accounts have "Pip Protector." It tallies losses (including floating losses) within 60 minutes of your last position, and once you hit the cap, all positions are closed and the cap is cut in half. On the third occurrence, the account is closed. The cap percentage is said to be "shown when you choose your challenge," and isn't stated in the help center (we could not confirm it this time).

EAs (automated trading) are allowed. However, only ones built with your own method — EAs bought on the market or otherwise distributed are prohibited (per the official Automated trading guidelines). PipFarm only trades on cTrader; there's no MT4 or MT5.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed variables

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades per day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss is capped at 2.5% of the starting balance across all plans (if the next loss would push you past 2.5%, you stop trading for the day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the starting balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win nets +0.95R, a loss costs −1.05R). For USD/JPY, that's a 1.5-pip round-trip cost against a 30-pip stop/target, or 2 pips against 40 pips
• On failure, buy the same plan again; no scaling; profit remaining in the account at year-end is not counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Assumptions specific to PipFarm

• The split is fixed at 70% (the starting point for a first-year new trader; in reality it rises with payouts)
• Payouts occur every 30 days (21 trading days), with a per-payout cap of 3% (the cap on the first payout; in reality it rises to 4%, 5%, and so on from the second payout), and a floor of 1%
• Post-payout max loss is approximated as the line rising to the starting balance on the 1st payout (in reality it starts shrinking from the 2nd payout, with a 1% floor; this approximation is harsher than reality)
• Classic's 50% consistency rule was applied during evaluation too, for engine reasons (in reality it only applies at payout time)

Variables tested

• Plan
• Skill level: 50% win rate (zero edge) / 52% (small edge) / 55% (medium edge) / 58% (strong edge)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• The amount of profit left in the account at payout time (the best amount for each plan was chosen)

Not included in this model

• The split rising 70%→75%→80%, and the capital top-up on every 5th payout (Sustainable Scaling Program)
• Pip Protector (the cap on losses within 60 minutes). This model assumes risk per trade up to 1.5% and gaps of more than 60 minutes between trades
• The 90-day time limit per stage, and the rule that closes the account after 28 days of no trading
• The hard $5,000 cap per payout (irrelevant at $100K with a 3% cap)
• The 1-Stage trailing format (an 8% cap that trails the highest balance reached) and Endurance mode. Endurance was excluded because we couldn't confirm in the help center what counts as a "profit day" (how much profit per day qualifies) or how many profit days a funded account needs

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1, and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win nets +0.95R and a loss costs −1.05R. With win rate p,

expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

One-year expected value

One-year expected value = average annual payout received + average fee refunded − average fee paid

• Payout received = amount withdrawn × split (70%). Each payout is capped at 3% of the account
• Fee refunded: none by default at PipFarm (0)
• Fee paid = fee × number of purchases in a year (buying again every time you fail)

Losses stop once you've spent "fee × number of purchases," while payouts come in from accounts that pass. This average can't be derived analytically, so we ran a year of trading under the official rules 20,000 times and took the average (Monte Carlo method).

A worked example in USD/JPY

For USD/JPY (¥150/$1) with a 1.5-pip round-trip cost, a 30-pip stop/target matches this model's "cost = 5% of risk." At $100K with 1% risk per trade ($1,000), that's 5 lots — a win nets +$950, a loss costs −$1,050. Even at 1.5% risk, that's 7.5 lots (effective 7.5x leverage), which fits within PipFarm's new-rank leverage cap of 1:30. See the detailed math in our 4-firm comparison article.

At 0.5% risk per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

At 1.0% risk per trade

At "medium edge," the probability of ending in the black was 73% for Classic 2-Stage, 76% for Classic 1-Stage, 84% for Consistency 2-Stage, and 91% for Consistency 1-Stage.

At 1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, once you take one loss, the next loss would push you past 2.5%, so trading stops there for the day.

How much removing the approximations changes things

With post-payout max loss set to "unchanged" (more lenient than reality), at 1% risk per trade and "medium edge," Consistency 1-Stage came to +$12,156. With the per-payout cap set to 5% (closer to the cap from the 2nd payout onward), it came to +$12,310. The real figure is likely somewhere between these and our +$9,185. The ranking didn't change in either case.

Why the gap exists

The payout-receiving side (70% split, 3% per-payout cap, shrinking cushion) is identical across every plan. So the difference comes down almost entirely to the entry cost. Consistency, with a fee $210 cheaper and a lower target, comes out on top.

The 40% consistency rule (your best day can't exceed 40% of total profit) hits harder for a style with occasional big winning days. Because this simulation uses uniform 1:1 wins and losses, its impact shows up as small. If your style takes big gains on single days, Classic (which only applies a 50% consistency rule at payout time) is also worth considering.

We've also written in more detail about how consistency rules work in our consistency rule simulation.

Which one should you buy

FAQ

Q. Is PipFarm's expected value positive?

At a 55% win rate (+0.05R per trade), the one-year expected value was positive across all 4 plans. At 1% risk per trade, that's +$5,624 to +$9,185. At a 50% win rate (zero edge), every condition came out negative. Choosing the right plan alone doesn't create an edge.

Q. When can I withdraw from PipFarm, and how much?

By default, once you receive a funded account, you can request a payout every 30 days (this can be shortened to 14, 7 days, or on-demand with an add-on). The per-payout cap starts at 3% of the account balance and rises by 1% with each payout, up to 6%. There's also a hard cap of $5,000 per payout. The floor is 1%. Approval and payment each take 2–3 business days.

Q. Is PipFarm's fee refunded?

Not by default. If you add the "Challenge Fee Refund" add-on at purchase (10% of the price), the fee you actually paid is credited to your funded account as profit once you pass, and you receive it on your first payout. This was not included in this simulation.

Q. Isn't a 70% split low?

Your first payout is 70% regardless of rank. From there, it rises one tier with every payout, up to the cap for your current rank (up to 99% max). Raising your rank requires experience points (XP), and Consistency mode earns double the XP for passing and for payouts. We fixed it at 70% here as a first-year new trader, so this is a more conservative figure than reality.

Q. What happens to the max loss when I make a payout?

Nothing changes on your first payout. From the second payout on, the max-loss cushion shrinks by the same amount you withdrew, and can drop as low as 1% of the starting balance. On the 5th payout, the account gets a capital top-up and the cushion is restored to its original proportion. The account becomes easier to breach the more payouts you make, so decide your withdrawal amount while watching how much cushion is left.

Q. I want to run this with my own settings

We've published the simulation script and the config file (PipFarm) used on this page. Run python sim-prop-ev.py pipfarm.json to get the same tables. You can change the split, payout cap, and risk per trade (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 PipFarm guide
• 💰 Compare PipFarm pricing
• 📊 FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec expected value comparison
• 📊 Consistency rule simulation
• 📘 Drawdown types explained

Sources: PipFarm Help Center — "Challenge Mode Comparison," "Classic Mode introduction," "Consistency Mode introduction," "How Payouts Work," "Payout Caps," "Sustainable Scaling Program," "Max Daily Loss Rule Explained," "Static Max Loss Rule Explained," "The Experience Program," "Pip Protector," "Challenge Fee Refund Add-On," "Automated trading guidelines." All confirmed September 27, 2026.