What's the Expected Value of Forge of Traders? Running 1-Phase, 2-Phase, and Instant for a Year Shows the Funded 1% Rule Caps You at 0.5% Per Trade [September 2026]

※ Rules and prices were confirmed on Forge of Traders' official site (program comparison, FAQ) on September 27, 2026. Prices are list price ($100K).

⚠️ Forge of Traders bans automated trading via EAs, bots, or scripts entirely. The official FAQ states, "the use of any automated system, including EAs, bots, or scripts, is a hard breach (instant disqualification)." Every number in this article assumes all orders are placed and closed manually.

Conclusion

• On a Funded account, if the combined loss across all open positions exceeds 1% of the current balance, you're disqualified instantly. In a model where a loss including costs is 1.05% per trade, even 1% per trade exceeds that cap, so the only table you can legally trade under is the 0.5%-per-trade one. The 1% and 1.5% tables are for reference only.
• At 0.5% per trade, 1-Phase has the smallest loss at zero/small edge, and Instant takes first place at medium edge or above (+$6,340 at medium).
• However, Instant's fee is a heavy $3,499, and at zero edge it loses an average of −$9,680 per year — more than 7x the loss of 1-Phase (−$1,272).
• 1-Phase and 2-Phase are priced almost identically, but 1-Phase came out ahead under every condition. Reaching Funded faster with a single step outweighs 2-Phase's "100% fee refund with your first payout."
• The only setup that ends up positive at zero edge (50% win rate) is 1-Phase at 1% per trade — but that's the option that violates the rules. Choosing a different plan doesn't create a winning edge out of nowhere.

Forge of Traders' plans ($100K equivalent)

There's also a 3-Phase (Triple-Tempered) at $345. Its targets are 8% → 5% → 3%, but max loss changes phase by phase (10% → 7% → 5%) and so does daily loss (5% → 4% → 3%). Because this simulation uses the same loss cap for every step, 3-Phase is excluded from the calculation.

The Maximum Aggregated Risk Rule judges you on the sum of the floating loss across all currently open positions plus the realized loss of positions held during the same window. The cap is a percentage of the "current balance": 2% for evaluation accounts, 1% for Funded accounts (including Instant). Exceeding it on a Funded account auto-halts the account, just like daily loss or max loss. Exceeding it on an evaluation account gets caught during the review before promotion to Funded and results in a fail.

Equity Lock is a mechanism where, once a Funded account's equity reaches +10% above the starting balance, the max-loss line rises once to the starting balance level. After that, the account halts if the balance drops back to the starting balance. In the simulation, we approximated this the same way as Hantec Enhanced — "the line rises to the starting balance at the point of the first payout." Under most conditions, the best-performing "profit left in the account" figure was 6–12%, so we think the gap from actual behavior is small.

For the 2-Phase refund, the official page states that "100% of the fee is credited back along with the first payout." In the simulation, we model receiving the fee back at the same time as the first payout.

Simulation assumptions

Same assumptions as the sample 4-firm comparison article.

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades per day, take-profit to stop-loss ratio of 1:1
• Daily loss is capped at 2.5% of the starting balance across every plan (once a further loss would push the day past 2.5%, no more trading that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss are all assumed to never exceed 3%. However, Forge of Traders' Funded accounts have a 1% aggregated risk cap, so 1% and 1.5% per trade violate this firm's rules (see the conclusion above)
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the starting balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win is +0.95R, a loss is −1.05R). For USD/JPY, a round-trip cost of 1.5 pips corresponds to a 30-pip stop/target, and 2 pips corresponds to 40 pips
• On disqualification, the same plan is rebought (calculated at list price), no scaling, payouts every 14 days (first after 1 trading day), and any profit left in the account at year-end isn't counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Edge: win rate 50% (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• Amount of profit left in the account at payout time (the best amount was chosen for each plan)

Not included in this model

• The 1%/2% aggregated risk rule (read the tables for 1%-per-trade and above as rule violations on a Funded account)
• "Unlimited Restarts," where rebuying after disqualification costs 90% of list price (including this would improve results slightly)
• The 90% split add-on (+20%), the weekend-hold/news-trading add-on (+30%), and the 7-day reset protection (+30%)
• The rule requiring everything closed by Friday market close (without the add-on)
• The ban on trading within 3 minutes of major news events, the 40-second minimum hold time, and the 3-position-per-symbol cap
• The behavioral review done at every payout (checking for sudden lot-size changes, chasing losses, etc., which can result in denial of a payout or Funded promotion)
• The rule that a Funded account halts after 30+ days without trading
• The first-purchase 50%-off coupon START50 (shown as "limited time" on the official site)

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With a 1:1 take-profit-to-stop-loss ratio and a cost of 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value over 1 year

1-year expected value = average payouts received over the year + average fee refunded − average fees paid

• Payouts received = withdrawal amount × split rate (80%)
• Fee refunded: 100% with the first payout, for 2-Phase
• Fees paid = fee × number of times purchased in the year (rebought each time you're disqualified)

Losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passing account have no upper limit. Since these three averages can't be derived analytically, we ran 250 days' worth of trading under the rules 20,000 times and averaged the results (Monte Carlo method).

For USD/JPY (at ¥150/$1), a round-trip cost of 1.5 pips corresponds to a 30-pip stop/target, and 2 pips corresponds to 40 pips — matching this article's "cost is 5% of risk." At $100K with 0.5% risk per trade, risk per trade is $500, which is 2.5 lots at a 30-pip stop. The details of position sizing are covered in depth in the 4-firm comparison article.

0.5% per trade: average annual net take-home minus fees

This is the only table that stays within the Funded account's 1% aggregated risk rule.

At medium edge, the probability of ending in profit was 62% for 1-Phase, 57% for 2-Phase, and 70% for Instant.

1.0% per trade

Since the cost-inclusive loss per trade is 1.05%, this exceeds the Funded account's 1% aggregated risk cap. Shown for reference.

1.5% per trade

On a Funded account, every single trade exceeds the 1% aggregated risk cap, so this doesn't hold up under the rules. It does fit within the evaluation account's 2% cap. Shown for reference.

Why the gap appears

At 0.5% per trade and zero edge, Instant pays an average of $9,975 in fees per year (working out to roughly 2.9 rebuys). The two evaluation-based plans, under the same conditions, cost $1,438–$1,554. With edge, you can recoup that gap through payouts from day one. Without edge, it simply stays as a loss.

1-Phase beats 2-Phase because 2-Phase's refund only attaches to "an account that passed and made one payout." Fees from attempts that failed before passing don't come back. At 0.5% per trade and zero edge, the rate of reaching Funded was 22% for 1-Phase and 11% for 2-Phase.

Which one should you buy

FAQ

Q. Is Forge of Traders' expected value positive?

If you have edge at a 55% win rate (expected value +0.05R per trade), it's positive over a year even at 0.5% per trade (1-Phase +$4,978, Instant +$6,340). At zero edge (50% win rate), every plan is negative at 0.5% per trade. Since the rules cap you at 0.5% per trade, there's also no path for someone without edge to swing bigger and make it back.

Q. Can I use an EA on Forge of Traders?

No. The official FAQ's list of prohibited practices includes "Manual Execution Only," and using an EA, bot, or script is a hard breach. All entries and exits must be done manually. There's also a 40-second minimum hold time and a ban on trading within 3 minutes of major news events.

Q. Is Forge of Traders' fee refundable?

For 2-Phase, the official site states that 100% of the fee comes back along with the first payout. For 1-Phase and Instant, the public page doesn't mention any refund. The terms of service state that "payments are non-refundable." If you're disqualified, you can rebuy the same challenge as many times as you like at 90% of list price (Unlimited Restarts).

Q. When can I start withdrawing from Forge of Traders?

Once you complete 1 trading day on a Funded account, you can request your first payout. The minimum is $50, and your account balance must exceed the starting balance, all positions and pending orders must be closed, and your identity verification (KYC) must be approved. From the second payout onward, it's every 14 days starting from your first trade after the previous payout. Each request goes through a risk-team review of your trading, usually completed the same day but up to 72 hours (reviews happen on UK business hours, 9:00–17:00, weekdays).

Q. When does the daily loss reset?

Every day at 21:00 UTC (6:00 AM JST, the same in both summer and winter). The lower limit for the next day is the balance at that moment minus the plan's daily loss percentage. Floating losses count toward the judgment too.

Q. I want to run this with my own assumptions

We've published the simulation engine used in this article and the Forge of Traders config file. Run python sim-prop-ev.py forgeoftraders.json to get the same tables. You can edit the prices and rules and rerun it (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 Forge of Traders guide
• 📊 Compare Forge of Traders' plans
• 📊 Expected value comparison: FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, Hantec
• 🤖 Comparing prop firm EA rules

Sources: Forge of Traders, "Compare Programs," "FAQ & Rules," "What Trading Practices Are Prohibited?," "Drawdown Calculations," "The Equity Lock Mechanism," "When Can I Make My First Reward?," "Phase 1 Consistency Score," "Premium Add-Ons & Recovery Mechanisms," "Terms and Conditions." All confirmed September 27, 2026.