What's ThinkCapital's Expected Value? | Simulating Lightning, Dual Step, and Nexus for a Year — Dual Step Comes Out on Top [September 2026]

Note: Rules and prices were confirmed on ThinkCapital's official site and official FAQ on September 27, 2026. Prices are list price ($100K).

Conclusion

• As long as you have even a slight edge, Dual Step Intraday (2-step) comes out on top at every lot size. At 1% risk per trade and "medium" skill, it came to +$17,931 over a year.
• Second place is Nexus (3-step). Its $349 price is the cheapest, and it has the smallest loss at zero edge, but with a target split across 3 stages, it can't catch up to Dual Step once you have real edge.
• Lightning (1-step) came in last at every lot size. Its 6% max loss trails the highest balance, and with a 3% daily loss against a 10% target, the container is simply too small.
• Across all 3 plans, the fee is refunded once a passing account receives its 3rd payout.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), every plan at every lot size came out negative. Choosing the right plan doesn't manufacture a winning edge.

ThinkCapital's Plans ($100K)

The daily loss line is reset every day at 5:00 PM Eastern Time (6:00 AM JST, or 7:00 AM in winter) to "the prior day's closing balance (or, for Dual Step Intraday, closing equity) minus a fixed percentage of the initial balance." Since the amount subtracted is fixed by the initial balance, on a $100K account that's $3,000 a day for Lightning and $4,000 a day for the other two.

Lightning's max loss is "the highest balance so far minus 6%," so once the highest balance reaches $106,000, the line locks at the initial balance of $100,000. The official FAQ states that withdrawing shrinks the allowance by exactly that amount. For example, if you withdraw $6,000 at a $106,000 balance, your allowance drops to zero, and you fail the moment the balance drops by even $1.

Dual Step's max loss is 7% during the evaluation and 8% on the funded account. Since the simulation engine can only hold one value, I calculated using the stricter 7%. Performance on the funded account will, in reality, be a bit better than the figures in this article.

There's also a Swing version of Dual Step ($698 at $100K). The target and max loss are the same as Intraday, but daily loss is based on balance instead, and news trading and weekend holding are allowed. Since the only difference that matters to the model is price, this article calculates using Intraday.

Simulation Assumptions

What was held fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), up to 3 trades a day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss is capped at 2.5% of the initial balance across every plan (if the next loss would push the day past 2.5%, no more trades go on that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win is +0.95R, a loss is −1.05R)
• On disqualification, buy the same plan again; no scaling; payouts every 2 weeks (10 trading days); profit left in the account at year-end isn't counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

What was varied

• Plan
• Skill: win rate 50% (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• Amount of profit left in the account at payout (the best amount for each plan was chosen)

What's not included in this model

• Dual Step's 8% max loss on the funded account (calculated at 7%, as noted above)
• News restrictions (Dual Step Intraday and Lightning ban trading within ±4 minutes of major releases on funded accounts; Nexus allows it via an add-on)
• Weekend holding (not allowed on Dual Step Intraday)
• The ban on gambling-style trading (all-or-nothing bets, oversized lots, doubling up after a loss, etc.)
• The rule that halts an account after 30 days without trading
• Refund processing fees (the official FAQ states a $20 fee may be deducted per refund)

The Expected-Value Formula

Expected Value Per Trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1, and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected Value Over a Year

EV over a year = average payouts received over the year + average fee refunded − average fees paid

• Payouts received = withdrawal amount × profit split (80%)
• Fee refunded: on all 3 plans, in full on the 3rd payout
• Fees paid = fee × number of times bought over the year (buying again on every disqualification)

Your losses are capped at "fee × number of times bought," while the payouts from a passing account have no ceiling. Because of this shape, some combinations end up positive over a year even when the per-trade EV is slightly negative. These three averages can't be derived by formula, so I ran a full year of trading 20,000 times under the actual rules and took the average (Monte Carlo method).

A Concrete USD/JPY Example

If USD/JPY spread and commission come to a round-trip of 1.5 pips, that matches a 30-pip stop-loss/take-profit at a cost of 5% of risk (0.05R) — the same weight as this article's assumptions. On a $100K account at 1% risk per trade, the risk is $1,000; since 1 pip on 1 lot (100,000 units) is about $6.667, a 30-pip stop works out to 5 lots. A win nets +$950, a loss −$1,050. The detailed math is in FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec: Expected Value Compared.

Risk 0.5% Per Trade: Average Annual Take-Home Minus Fees

Risk 1.0% Per Trade

Risk 1.5% Per Trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, after one loss, a second loss would push past 2.5% for the day, so trading stops there.

Why the Results Differ

Comparing at zero edge and 1% risk per trade, the rate of reaching funded status was 94% for Lightning, 62% for Dual Step, and 35% for Nexus. Lightning is easy to pass, but it fails and needs re-buying on the funded account so often that the average fees paid ballooned to $8,766. Dual Step's was $4,519, and Nexus's was $2,897.

Nexus has the smallest loss at zero edge. This isn't because it's stronger — it's because the 3-stage evaluation takes longer, so there are fewer chances to buy again within a year.

Which One Should You Buy

ThinkCapital accounts trade on ThinkTrader (which can also place orders from TradingView). There's no MT4/MT5.

FAQ

Q. Is ThinkCapital's expected value positive?

At "medium" skill (55% win rate, per-trade EV of +0.05R), every plan at every lot size came out positive. At 1% risk per trade, Dual Step Intraday came to +$17,931 over a year. At zero edge (50% win rate), every plan at every lot size came out negative.

Q. Is ThinkCapital's fee refundable?

According to the official FAQ, after passing the evaluation, the fee is automatically refunded along with the 3rd payout. It isn't refunded on the 1st or 2nd payout, and there's no refund if you never reach the 3rd. It also states a $20 processing fee may be deducted per refund. If you haven't traded at all within 14 days of purchase, you can also request a refund of the purchase itself.

Q. When can I start withdrawing (getting payouts) from ThinkCapital?

The default is every 2 weeks, with the cycle counted from the first trade on the funded account. Adding the weekly add-on at purchase makes it weekly instead. There are 3 payout methods: crypto (USDT), Rise, and transfer to a personal ThinkMarkets account. Rise charges a $50 fee once a month. ThinkMarkets doesn't accept account openings from Japanese residents, so from Japan you'd use crypto or Rise.

Q. What happens to Lightning's max loss when you withdraw?

The max-loss line doesn't move down — the allowance just shrinks by the amount you withdrew. Once the highest balance reaches initial balance +6% and the line locks at the initial balance, withdrawing all your profit brings the allowance to zero. When withdrawing, it's safer to leave some profit in the account.

Q. Can I use an EA (automated trading)?

The official FAQ says it's allowed by default on both the evaluation and funded accounts. However, the only platform is ThinkTrader, which doesn't have an EA framework like MT5. If you're using a ThinkTrader-compatible tool, you need to inform support about it beforehand.

Q. I want to run this with my own conditions

The simulation script is available, along with the ThinkCapital config file used for this article. python sim-prop-ev.py thinkcapital.json produces the same tables. You can rewrite the price or max loss and re-run it (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 ThinkCapital Guide
• 📊 ThinkCapital Plan Comparison
• 📊 FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec: Expected Value Compared

Sources: ThinkCapital's "Lightning," "Dual Step," "Nexus"; official FAQ "How is the maximum simulated drawdown calculated in the Lightning Challenge/Funded?," "How is the maximum simulated drawdown calculated in the Dual Step Challenge/Funded?," "How is the daily simulated drawdown calculated in the Dual Step Challenge/Funded?," "Can I receive a refund for the challenge fees, or after successfully completing the challenge?," "How often are payouts offered for simulated funded accounts?," "How is the payout processed and how long does it take?," "Are Expert Advisors (EAs) allowed at ThinkCapital?." All confirmed September 27, 2026.