What's the Expected Value of Moneta Funded? Simulating 2-Step, 1-Step, Instant, and Instant Pro Over 1 Year, 1-Step Ranks #1 at 1% Risk Per Trade [September 2026]
※ Rules and pricing were confirmed on Moneta Funded's official site and official help center on September 27, 2026. All prices are the $100K list price (no coupon).
Conclusion
- If you risk 1% or 1.5% per trade, 1-Step ranks #1 at every skill level. At 1% risk and "medium" skill, it came out to +$24,796 for the year. 2-Step 5%/10% (+$22,016) followed.
- Instant (20% consistency / 88% split) can only be used at 0.5% risk per trade. For an Instant account bought on or after September 21, 2026, the moment the floating loss on a single symbol hits 1% of the account, it's an instant breach. At 0.5% risk, it ranked #1 across every plan ("medium" skill: +$17,017).
- The two 2-Step configurations are close to even. 5%/10% costs $195 more but gives you more room, and it edges ahead slightly at 1% risk or higher.
- Instant Pro is expensive at $5,300 and comes last under every condition. Even at "medium" skill the gain is small, and at zero skill it runs −$24,956 to −$58,199 for the year.
- The only cases roughly breaking even at zero skill (50% win rate) are Instant at 0.5% risk and 1-Step at 1.5% risk. Picking a plan doesn't create an edge that isn't there.
Moneta Funded plans ($100K)
| 2-Step 5%/10% | 2-Step 4%/8% | 1-Step | Instant (20%/88%) | Instant Pro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (list) | $855 | $660 | $780 | $877 | $5,300 |
| Profit target | 5% → 10% | 5% → 10% | 10% | None | None |
| Daily loss | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Max loss | 10% (static) | 8% (static) | 6% (static) | 5% (trailing, locks to initial balance) | 8% (trailing, locks to initial balance) |
| Max loss after payout | Doesn't move | Doesn't move | Doesn't move | Rises to the initial balance once a payout is approved | Rises to the initial balance once a payout is approved |
| Minimum days | 3 profit days of 0.5%+ (per phase) | Same | 3 profit days of 0.5%+ | None | None |
| Consistency | None | None | None | Single day's profit capped at 20% of total profit | None |
| Profit split | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| Fee refund | Full refund on the 4th payout | Same | Same | None | None |
| Payout | Every 14 days, $100 minimum | Same | Same | Same | Anytime for the 1st payout, then every 14 days |
| Floating loss on one symbol | Closed out at 3% on the funded account | Closed out at 2% on the funded account | Closed out at 2% on the funded account | Instant breach at 1% | Has a close-out rule (see below) |
| Leverage (FX) | 1:100 | 1:100 | 1:30 | 1:30 | 1:30 |
The daily loss is determined by "today's baseline − initial balance × daily loss %." The baseline is whichever is higher of the balance and the equity at 22:00 UTC (7am JST) each day. If you carry floating profit overnight, the baseline rises, so even if that position simply comes back to break-even, the room you have to use shrinks.
The "trailing" max loss follows the account's highest value from 5% below (Instant) or 8% below (Instant Pro). The line stops once it reaches the initial balance. For accounts bought on or after September 21, 2026, the line rises to the initial balance the moment a payout is approved. After that, dropping even $1 below the initial balance is a breach.
Instant's consistency rule holds a payout if a single day's profit exceeds "total profit × 20%." Nothing is confiscated — you can keep trading, and once the ratio drops back down, the payout goes through. At purchase you can choose 15% (60% split) or 20% (88% split). This article calculates using the 20%/88% option ($877). The 15%/60% option is $454.
The rule on floating loss for a single symbol works like this on a funded account: "once the floating loss on that symbol hits a threshold, all positions are closed and, from then on, risk per trade is capped at 1.5% of the account." For Instant Pro, the same help article lists both 3% and 2% as the threshold, and we couldn't confirm which is correct. With the sizing used in this article (up to 1.5% per trade, one position at a time), nothing except Instant hits any of these thresholds.
As of September 27, 2026, the official site is displaying the coupon FLASH40 (40% off; per the help center, it runs through the end of September). With the coupon, the fee is lower and every figure in this article's tables improves. This article's numbers use the list price.
Simulation assumptions
Fixed
- 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades per day, 1:1 take-profit/stop-loss
- Daily loss is capped at 2.5% of the initial balance across all plans (if a loss would push you over 2.5%, no more trades that day)
- Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3% (assuming none of the 3%-class rules at any firm get triggered)
- Lot size is fixed at r% of the initial balance, one position at a time
- Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win nets +0.95R, a loss costs −1.05R); for USD/JPY, this equals a 1.5-pip round-trip cost against a 30-pip SL/TP, or 2 pips against 40 pips
- On a breach, buy the same plan again; no scaling; payouts every 14 days; profit left in the account at year-end isn't counted
- 20,000 runs per condition
Varied
- Plan
- Skill: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
- Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
- The amount of profit left in the account at payout time (chosen as the best amount for each plan)
Not modeled
- Instant Pro's "if daily profit hits 4%, auto-close and pause until the next day" rule. This is only barely triggered by three straight wins in a day at 1.5% risk (+4.275%)
- Instant's consistency check is modeled as "best day ÷ sum of profitable days." The official rule uses "total profit" as the denominator, so during periods with losing days the official rule is somewhat stricter than the model
- The no-trade window around news (2 minutes before/after; applies to 1-Step/2-Step — Instant Pro allows news trading), the way carrying floating P&L overnight shifts the daily allowance, swap
The expected-value formula
Expected value per trade
With a 1:1 take-profit/stop-loss and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win nets +0.95R and a loss costs −1.05R. With win rate p,
Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R
| Skill | Win rate p | Expected value per trade |
|---|---|---|
| Zero | 50% | −0.05R |
| Small | 52% | −0.01R |
| Medium | 55% | +0.05R |
| Strong | 58% | +0.11R |
Expected value over 1 year
1-year expected value = average payout received + average fee refunded − average fee paid
- Payout received = withdrawal amount × profit split (88% for all plans)
- Fee refunded: for 2-Step and 1-Step, the full fee on the 4th payout. No refund for Instant or Instant Pro
- Fee paid = fee × number of purchases in the year (buying again every time you breach)
The loss is capped at "fee × number of purchases," while there's no ceiling on the payouts from an account that passes. Because of this asymmetry, a slightly negative expected value per trade can still turn positive over a full year. The three averages can't be derived analytically, so we ran a full year of trading 20,000 times under the actual rules and averaged the results (Monte Carlo method).
A concrete USD/JPY example
On a $100K account risking 1% ($1,000) per trade, with a 1.5-pip round-trip cost on USD/JPY, a 30-pip SL/TP works out to 5 lots. A win nets +$950 and a loss costs −$1,050, giving +$50 per trade at a 55% win rate. The lot-size, effective-leverage, and cost calculations are laid out in detail in our 4-firm comparison article.
Moneta's 1-Step and Instant plans use 1:30 FX leverage. 5 lots ($500K notional) is 5x effective leverage, so at 1% risk / 30 pips this stays within the leverage limit.
0.5% risk per trade: average take-home minus fees, 1 year
| Skill | 2-Step 5%/10% | 2-Step 4%/8% | 1-Step | Instant (20%/88%) | Instant Pro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero | −$2,515 | −$2,389 | −$2,964 | +$57 | −$24,956 |
| Small | −$889 | −$781 | −$35 | +$5,915 | −$15,045 |
| Medium | +$6,605 | +$6,531 | +$9,738 | +$17,017 | +$3,035 |
| Strong | +$21,920 | +$21,639 | +$26,527 | +$32,210 | +$23,278 |
At 0.5% risk, even a loss keeps floating loss at 0.525%, so it never triggers Instant's 1% rule. With this sizing, Instant ranks #1 at every skill level. It has more room relative to its fee (5% max loss) and lets you trade as a funded account from day one, with no evaluation phase — that's what drives it.
1.0% risk per trade
| Skill | 2-Step 5%/10% | 2-Step 4%/8% | 1-Step | Instant (20%/88%) | Instant Pro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero | −$3,156 | −$3,106 | −$2,695 | N/A | −$49,166 |
| Small | +$2,954 | +$2,544 | +$5,060 | N/A | −$27,627 |
| Medium | +$22,016 | +$20,234 | +$24,796 | N/A | +$9,838 |
| Strong | +$53,040 | +$50,501 | +$55,207 | N/A | +$49,266 |
Instant can't be used at 1% risk. Right before a stop-loss triggers, the floating loss (including cost) exceeds 1% of the account, so for accounts bought on or after September 21, 2026 that's an instant breach. Even setting the stop-loss at exactly 1%, spread or slippage can push it over.
1.5% risk per trade
| Skill | 2-Step 5%/10% | 2-Step 4%/8% | 1-Step | Instant (20%/88%) | Instant Pro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero | −$1,401 | −$1,736 | +$118 | N/A | −$58,199 |
| Small | +$6,686 | +$5,699 | +$9,810 | N/A | −$32,906 |
| Medium | +$28,135 | +$25,301 | +$32,165 | N/A | +$9,945 |
| Strong | +$61,787 | +$58,506 | +$65,062 | N/A | +$55,499 |
1-Step's daily loss is 3%. Given the 2.5%-per-day stopping rule, even at 1.5% risk per trade this never hits the daily limit.
Why the results differ
| Plan | What drives the result |
|---|---|
| 1-Step | One phase, so you reach the funded stage fast. Max loss is a tight 6% but static, and doesn't move after a payout. Full fee refund on the 4th payout |
| 2-Step 5%/10% | The widest room (10% static). But Phase 2's 10% target is heavy, so it takes longer to reach funded |
| 2-Step 4%/8% | $195 cheaper, but Phase 2 is "you can only lose 8% but need to win 10%." The larger the size you trade, the further behind it falls relative to 5%/10% |
| Instant (20%/88%) | No evaluation, fee is 0.877% of the account. Best-in-class at 0.5% risk, but the 1% floating-loss instant breach means you can't size up. The line rises to the initial balance once a payout is approved |
| Instant Pro | Fee is 5.3% of the account — 6 to 8 times the others. Neither the room (8% trailing) nor the anytime first payout makes up for that |
1-Step has the heaviest structure in Moneta's lineup by "10% target ÷ 6% max loss." Even so, it comes out #1 because a single phase gets you to the funded stage fast, extending the number of days per year you can earn money as a funded account. 2-Step needs to earn 15% across two phases combined, which reduces the number of days spent as a funded account.
For Instant and Instant Pro, the line rises to the initial balance once a payout is approved. After that, only the profit left in the account acts as your buffer. In the simulation, we chose the best amount of profit to leave in the account at payout time for each plan.
Which one should you buy?
| Your situation | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| You size around 1% risk per trade | 1-Step |
| You sometimes have a big losing day / you want daily-loss breathing room | 2-Step 5%/10% (5% daily / 10% max loss) |
| You size small (0.5% or less) and grind steadily every day | Instant (20%/88%) |
| You want to trade the news | Only Instant Pro allows it, though it has the lowest expected value |
1-Step at 1% risk (+$24,796 at "medium" skill) beats Instant at 0.5% risk (+$17,017). If you can size up, go 1-Step; if you want to keep your sizing small, go Instant — that's the split.
FAQ
Q. Is Moneta Funded's expected value positive?
If you have a 55% win rate (+0.05R per trade), every plan except Instant Pro comes out positive over a year. At zero skill (50% win rate), Instant at 0.5% risk (+$57) and 1-Step at 1.5% risk (+$118) are roughly break-even; everything else is negative.
Q. Does Moneta Funded refund the fee?
For 1-Step and 2-Step, the full fee is refunded once you make your 4th payout on that same challenge. No refund for Instant or Instant Pro. Once you've traded on an account, no refund applies for any other reason (an unused account can be refunded within 14 days of purchase).
Q. When and how much can I withdraw from Moneta Funded?
The first payout is 14 days after your first trade on the funded account, then every 14 days after that, with a $100 minimum. Instant Pro is the only plan where you can request the first payout at any time. Payouts come via USDC/USDT (ERC20/TRC20) or a Moneta Markets account. The official help center doesn't list a per-payout cap.
Q. When did Instant's "instant breach at 1% floating loss" rule start?
It applies to Instant accounts purchased on or after September 21, 2026. If the floating loss on a single symbol reaches 1% of the account size, it's a breach with no warning. Accounts bought before that date follow the old rule: close out at 2%, then a 1.5% cap thereafter.
Q. Does using a coupon change the results?
Yes — a lower fee improves every plan. As of September 27, 2026, the official site is showing the FLASH40 (40% off) coupon. It has the biggest effect on Instant Pro, since its fee makes up the largest share of the numbers, but even at 40% off it's $3,180 — the gap with the other plans doesn't close.
Q. Can I run this with my own numbers?
We've published the simulation script and this article's config file. You can change the price (e.g. after a coupon), win rate, and lot size and re-run it (requires Python and numba).
Related
- 🏢 Moneta Funded guide / Compare Moneta Funded plans
- 📊 FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, and Hantec expected-value comparison
- 📊 Moneta 2-Step: should you buy the 4%/8% or 5%/10% configuration?
- 📊 Moneta Instant Pro trailing-drawdown simulation
- 📖 Moneta Funded Instant funding account guide
Sources: Moneta Funded's official site (the Challenge Builder on the homepage), the official help center: "1-Step Challenge," "2-Step Challenge," "Instant Funding Account," "Trailing Drawdown," "Max Floating Loss," "Consistency Rule," "Daily Permitted Loss," "Product Offerings," "Payout Methods," "Refund Policy." All confirmed September 27, 2026.
Written by
Hosono P | the prop firm strategist
I buy challenges with my own money and record everything through to the payout. Recorded payouts: ¥6.1M in total from Fintokei, Fundora and Funded7, plus $4,776 from The5ers (as of September 2026). Author of the semi-discretionary EA "ELDRA".