What's Funded7's Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of the 2-Phase and 1-Phase Plans Puts 2-Phase + the 90% Profit-Split Add-On in First (September 2026)

📢 Advertising / affiliate disclosure: This article contains a prop-memo.com affiliate link (🎁 Funded7). The simulation's assumptions and numbers are calculated under the same conditions regardless of the affiliate relationship.

Note: Rules and pricing were confirmed on September 27, 2026 against Funded7's official site, checkout pages, and official FAQ. Since Funded7 is yen-denominated, figures are shown for a ¥20M account, matched by "percentage of account size" and displayed as $100K-equivalent amounts (¥95,000 on a ¥20M account is 0.475% of the account, so the $100K-equivalent is $475).

Conclusion

• At nearly every risk level, 2-Phase + the 90% profit-split add-on comes out on top. At 1% risk per trade with "medium" skill, it returned +$24,048/year. The add-on cost (+10% of the price) is quickly recovered by the larger payout.
• Plain 2-Phase without the add-on still returns +$21,630 at 1% risk with "medium" skill. The fee gets refunded on the second payout, and max loss doesn't move when you withdraw.
• 1-Phase came in last at every risk level. Despite costing about 1.5x more than 2-Phase, it has a 50% profit split, and its 8% max loss trails your highest balance.
• At zero skill (50% win rate), only 2-Phase at 1.5% risk (+$1,988) and its add-on version (+$2,137) came out positive, and both are thin margins. Choosing a plan doesn't manufacture an edge.

Funded7's plans (¥20M = $100K equivalent)

The daily loss limit is 5% (4% on 1-Phase) of the balance as of the previous day's close (server time 00:00 = 17:00 ET; 6:00 JST, or 7:00 JST in winter). As the balance grows, the amount you're allowed to lose in a day grows with it.

1-Phase's max loss is "highest balance minus 8% of the starting balance." Per the official FAQ, a payout drops the highest balance by the amount withdrawn, and the line drops with it. If you withdraw all the profit, the line returns to exactly where it started.

Sizes other than ¥20M range from ¥2M-¥60M for 2-Phase and ¥2M-¥40M for 1-Phase. A ¥10M 2-Phase account is ¥59,000 (0.59% of the account) — the ¥20M account is cheaper relative to its size.

Plans not calculated in this article

• 2-Phase NEO: same rules as 2-Phase, but every time you hit the monthly payout cap, next month's cap rises by 1.2x (¥15M is ¥76,440 = 0.510% of the account). This account suits traders who earn enough to hit the cap regularly; this model can't represent a rising cap, so it's excluded
• PAYG (Pay As You Go): a 2-Phase variant where you pay for Phase 1 upfront and pay the rest each time you pass a stage. The official site states the total across all three payments equals a regular 2-Phase account. Since this model can't represent "pay after passing," it's excluded
• Instant Plan: an evaluation-free account capped at ¥7M, excluded for that reason

Simulation assumptions

Held fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), up to 3 trades per day, take-profit and stop-loss both 1:1
• The daily loss cap for every plan is 2.5% of the starting balance (stop taking new trades for the day once the next loss would push past 2.5%)
• Per-trade risk, floating loss, and the daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the starting balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win is +0.95R, a loss is -1.05R)
• On a fail, the same plan is bought again; no scaling; payouts every 7 days (5 trading days); profit still sitting in the account at year-end doesn't count
• The $10,000/month payout cap was converted into a per-7-day cap (about $2,308 received) and applied that way
• For 1-Phase, the calculation assumes every payout withdraws all profit, resetting the max-loss line back to the starting point
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Skill: win rate 50% (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• How much profit is left in the account at each payout (for 2-Phase, the best amount was chosen)

Not included in this model

• The OREF rule (see the section below). Since this model uses a fixed lot size and equal-width take-profit/stop-loss, it doesn't trip the Rule 1 threshold
• Officially, 1-Phase's max loss rises every time the balance hits a new high. The model raises it based on the highest balance at day's end, so it's a little more forgiving than reality
• The minimum of 10 closed trades (with up to 3 trades/day, this is nearly always satisfied within 3 trading days)
• The bans on martingale, hedging, and one-sided bets, and the rule that an account expires after 30 days without trading

The OREF rule (Funded7's proprietary review)

Funded7 uses a proprietary rule called OREF to review both payouts and passing.

Rule 1 isn't a violation — it's a "payout requirement," and the payout is simply held until you meet it. Keeping lot size consistent and using the same take-profit/stop-loss width every time makes it much less likely you'll trip Rule 1's threshold. Suddenly increasing lot size, or trading gold with the same lot size as FX, makes it easy to exceed the notional-size threshold.

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1 and cost at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is -1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value per year

Expected value per year = average payouts received in a year + average refunded fees − average fees paid

• Payout received = amount withdrawn × profit split (80%, 90% with the add-on, 50% on 1-Phase)
• Fee refunded: for 2-Phase, the full amount on the second payout
• Fees paid = fee × number of times purchased in a year (bought again each time you fail)

Losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passed account keep growing on the upside. Because of this shape, some combinations end up positive over a year even when the expected value per trade is slightly negative. The three averages can't be derived in closed form, so a year of trading was run 20,000 times under the actual rules and averaged (Monte Carlo).

A concrete USD/JPY example

If USD/JPY's round-trip spread and commission are 1.5 pips, a 30-pip stop-loss/take-profit puts the cost at 5% of risk (0.05R) — the same weight assumed in this article. On a ¥20M account risking 1% per trade, that's a risk of ¥200,000. Since 1 pip on USD/JPY is ¥1,000 per lot (100,000 units), a 30-pip stop means 200,000 yen ÷ (30 pips × ¥1,000) = about 6.7 lots. For the detailed math, see FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec expected value compared.

0.5% per trade: average annual take-home minus fees ($100K equivalent)

1.0% per trade

1.5% per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, after one loss, a second loss would push past the 2.5% daily cap, so trading stops there for the day.

Converted to yen, 2-Phase + the 90% split at 1% risk with "medium" skill comes to about ¥4.81M/year on a ¥20M account (+$24,048 × 200).

Why the gap happens

At 1% risk with "medium" skill, average payouts were $23,128 for 2-Phase versus $15,638 for 1-Phase. 1-Phase reaches funded status faster since it's a single step, but it also fails and gets rebought more often as a funded account, ballooning the average fees paid to $4,319 (versus $1,498 for 2-Phase).

Which one to buy

As of September 27, 2026, the official site is showing SEP25 (25% off every plan, plus a +10% profit-split add-on). Since a discount code often only applies to the first purchase, this article's calculations use the list price paid each time an account is rebought after failing.

👉 🎁 Funded7 affiliate link

FAQ

Q. Is Funded7's expected value positive?

At "medium" skill (55% win rate, +0.05R expected value per trade), it was positive across every plan and every risk level. At 1% risk, 2-Phase returned +$21,630/year, and +$24,048 with the 90% split add-on. At zero skill (50% win rate), everything at 0.5% and 1.0% risk was negative — only 2-Phase at 1.5% risk squeaked out a thin positive.

Q. Is Funded7's fee refundable?

On 2-Phase, the fee is refunded alongside your second payout after passing (at the earliest, two weeks after the first payout). If you haven't placed a single trade within 7 days of purchase, you can also request a refund of the purchase itself.

Q. When and from how much can I withdraw at Funded7?

You can request every 7 days from your last request or from account opening. The amount received must be at least $100, meaning at least $125 in profit at an 80% split. Payouts are capped at $10,000/month per person. Payment methods are bank transfer, crypto (ETH/USDC), and Revolut, and the official site states payment within 1 business day. Requesting a payout automatically closes any open positions.

Q. Why did 1-Phase perform poorly?

Because its 50% split means you receive only about 60% of what 2-Phase (80%) pays out for the same profit. On top of that, at ¥140,470 for a ¥20M account, it costs about 1.5x more than 2-Phase, and its 8% max loss trails the highest balance. Reaching funded faster in one step wasn't enough to close that gap.

Q. Can the OREF rule hold up a payout?

Yes. If you don't meet Rule 1 (trade size, count, and QC score), the payout is held. It isn't a violation, so profit isn't confiscated — keep trading until you meet the conditions and you can still withdraw. Keeping lot size consistent is the best way to avoid it.

Q. I want to run this with my own assumptions

The simulation script and the Funded7 config file used in this article are both published. Running python sim-prop-ev.py funded7.json reproduces the same tables. You can edit it to use post-coupon pricing or a different payout cap (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 Funded7 guide
• 📊 Funded7 plan comparison
• 📊 FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec expected value compared
• 📖 Funded7 complete guide

Sources: Funded7's "Challenge Plan Comparison" and "checkout page"; the official FAQ articles "2-Phase Challenge overview," "1-Phase Challenge overview," "How is the daily loss calculated," "How is the total max loss calculated," "About payouts," "How to request a refund," "OREF Rule 1," and "OREF Rules 2 & 3." All confirmed September 27, 2026.