What's the Expected Value of Hola Prime? | A 1-Year Simulation of 1-Step Prime, 2-Step Prime, and 2-Step Pro Shows Monthly 95% Wins if You Have an Edge [September 2026]

※ Rules and prices were confirmed on Hola Prime's official site (fee simulator, trading rules, FAQ) on September 27, 2026. All prices are list price in USD. The standing coupon WELCOME20 (20% OFF) is not included in the calculation.

Conclusion

• If your edge is "medium" or better, buying 2-Step Prime with the "monthly 95%" option comes out on top. The base fee is 20% higher, but the effect of the split rising from 80% to 95% outweighs that — at 1% risk per trade and "medium" edge, it came to +$25,070 over a year.
• Comparing the standard "biweekly 80%" option across the board, 1-Step Prime, 2-Step Prime, and 2-Step Pro come out almost even (+$23,194 / +$22,515 / +$22,273 under the same conditions).
• All three plans refund the fee in full, 25% per payout across the first 4 payouts. Max loss is a fixed line based on the initial balance and doesn't rise after a withdrawal. These two features lift every plan's expected value.
• 2-Step Pro shares the same target and loss caps as 2-Step Prime, and costs $112 more in exchange for 100x leverage. Since the extra leverage doesn't matter in this model, it comes out slightly below Prime.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), every plan is negative up to 1% risk per trade. At 1.5% risk it turns thinly positive, but that thin margin disappears if costs rise even slightly.

Hola Prime's plans ($100K equivalent)

The daily loss line for the day is "the previous day's closing balance × (1 − the daily percentage)" (day 1 uses the initial balance as the basis). You fail the moment either balance or equity (including floating P&L) touches that line.

You choose one of three withdrawal methods at purchase time: the standard biweekly 80%, monthly 95% (which costs 20% more upfront), or on-demand 80% (available anytime, provided the single best day is under 40% of total profit and profit is at least 2% of the initial balance). This article uses biweekly 80% as the baseline and lists monthly 95% as a separate plan. On-demand isn't included.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of the initial balance for every plan (once a further loss would exceed 2.5% or the firm's own daily limit, no more trades that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size fixed at r% of the initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win is +0.95R, a loss is −1.05R)
• On failure, buy the same plan again; no scaling; withdrawals every 14 days (every 30 days for monthly 95%); profit left in the account at year-end isn't counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Edge: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• How much profit is left in the account at each withdrawal (the best amount was chosen for each plan)

What this model does not include

• How the fee refund is split. Officially it's "25% per payout across the first 4 payouts." The model refunds 100% in one lump sum at the 4th payout. Failing before the 4th payout means the 25–75% you should have already received isn't counted, so the table's figures are slightly conservative (refunding it all at the 1st payout instead gives +$24,007 / +$22,863 / +$22,690 / +$25,554 at 1% risk and "medium" edge).
• Withdrawal fees. Every withdrawal method carries a 2.5% fee (minimum $25 for Rise and bank transfer, minimum $5 for crypto). The payout figures in the tables are shown before this fee is deducted.
• The funded account's mandatory SL and 2%-per-trade-idea rule. The model's risk per trade tops out at 1.5% and always places a stop loss, so neither rule is ever triggered (see the FAQ for details).
• 2-Step Pro's funded-account restrictions on news trading and weekend holding, the ban on using 70%+ of margin, the 30-day inactivity fail, and the account review before withdrawal

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1 and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p:

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value over 1 year

1-year expected value = average payouts received over the year + average refunded fees − average fees paid

• Payouts received = withdrawal amount × profit split (80%, or 95% if you chose monthly)
• Refunded fees: the fee is fully refunded through payouts on accounts that passed
• Fees paid = fee × number of purchases over the year (buying again each time you fail)

Losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from an account that passes have no ceiling. None of these three averages can be derived by formula, so I ran a full year of trading 20,000 times under the actual rules and took the average (Monte Carlo method).

In USDJPY terms: if cost (spread plus commission) is 1.5 pips round trip, that's a 30-pip stop/target; at 2 pips, it's 40 pips — either way, cost comes out to exactly 5% of risk. On a $100K account risking 1% ($1,000) per trade, that's 5 lots at 30 pips or 3.75 lots at 40 pips. Tightening the stop further makes the same cost weigh proportionally more. See the 4-firm comparison article for more detail.

0.5% risk per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

1.0% risk per trade

1.5% risk per trade

1-Step Prime's daily loss is 3%, so at 1.5% risk per trade, one loss puts the next loss over the daily limit. Trading stops there for the day.

Why the difference

Monthly 95% underperforms at "small" edge or below because you withdraw less often. If you fail within the 30-day window, you never get to collect on the profit you built up. As edge rises and accounts survive longer, the 95%-split advantage compounds.

All three plans have a max loss fixed to the initial balance that doesn't rise after a withdrawal. Since there's no need to leave profit in the account at withdrawal time, "withdraw everything" came out as close to the best result in the simulation too.

Which one to buy

Rather than putting everything with one firm, spreading it across several of the top firms reduces your exposure to any single firm's rule change or discretionary call.

FAQ

Q. Is Hola Prime's expected value positive?

If you have an edge at a 55% win rate (EV per trade of +0.05R), every plan is positive. At 1% risk per trade, it came to +$22,273 to +$25,070 over a year. At zero edge (50% win rate), every plan is negative up to 1% risk per trade. At 1.5% it turns thinly positive (+$494 to +$1,869), but this isn't a case of plan choice creating a win — it's not that thick a margin.

Q. Is Hola Prime's fee refundable?

Yes — pass 1-Step Prime, 2-Step Prime, or 2-Step Pro, and the fee is refunded in full. According to the official FAQ, it's refunded automatically as 25% added to each of your first 4 payouts. For example, if the fee is $120, each of your first 4 payouts gets an extra $30 added. Since the full amount isn't refunded on the first payout, you need to keep your funded account intact through the 4th withdrawal.

Q. What are Hola Prime's withdrawal conditions and fees?

The standard biweekly-80% option lets you apply every 14 days, provided you had at least 3 days in that period with profit of 0.5%+ of the initial balance. Monthly 95% requires every 30 days and 7 profit days. Every withdrawal request triggers an account review, and officially, requests after review are processed within 1 hour (review itself can take up to 24 business hours). Every withdrawal method carries a 2.5% fee, with a minimum of $25 for Rise and bank transfer, and $5 for crypto. The minimum withdrawal is $50 for bank transfer/crypto and $500 for Rise (all figures are the trader's take after the split).

Q. Do the funded account's "mandatory SL" and "2% per trade idea" rules affect the simulation?

No, not in this model. Both are rules that apply only to the funded account — they don't exist during the evaluation (challenge) stage.

• Mandatory SL: every trade must have a stop loss placed. On a trade without one, it's a violation if floating or realized loss exceeds 2% of the initial balance.
• 2% per trade idea: the maximum loss defined by your stop-loss placement is capped at 2% of the initial balance per idea ($2,000 on a $100K account). Re-entries on the same symbol and direction within 10 minutes, or split positions with overlapping holding periods, are combined into a single idea. Gapping past your stop loss for a bigger loss than intended isn't a violation, as long as the stop was placed within the 2% limit.

The model always places a stop loss, caps risk per trade at 1.5%, and holds one position at a time, so neither rule is ever triggered. That said, anyone who splits entries, averages down, or uses an EA that doesn't place a stop loss could fail under either of these rules. Breaking one of the banned practices can also get your cap lowered to 1%.

Q. Is monthly 95% (base +20%) worth it?

Yes, if your edge is "medium" or better. At 1% risk per trade and "medium" edge, biweekly 80% came to +$22,515 versus monthly 95%'s +$25,070. Conversely, at "small" edge or below, it's a disadvantage because withdrawals drop to every 30 days. If you're not yet confident in your winning edge, starting with biweekly 80% is the safer choice.

Q. I want to run this with my own numbers

Both the simulation engine and this article's config file (Hola Prime) are published. Edit the numbers in the config file (price, target, loss caps, refund timing, etc.) to run it with your own conditions (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 Hola Prime Complete Guide
• 💰 Compare Hola Prime's pricing
• 📊 FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec Expected Value Comparison
• 📊 Which Hola Prime Plan Should You Buy? (EA Trading)

Sources: Hola Prime's "Forex (fee simulator)," "Forex Trading Rules," and "FAQ." All confirmed September 27, 2026.