What's The5ers' Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of High Stakes vs. Pro Growth Shows Pro Growth Slightly Ahead, Thanks to No Payout Cap [September 2026]

📢 Advertising / affiliate disclosure: This article contains a prop-memo.com affiliate link (🎁 The5ers). The simulation's assumptions and figures are calculated under the same conditions regardless of the affiliate relationship.

※ Rules and pricing were confirmed on The5ers' official site and official FAQ on September 27, 2026. Since Pro Growth's largest size is $50K, we scaled the fee to match a $100K-equivalent account ($329 → $658) for a fair comparison.

Conclusion

• At 1% risk per trade and a "medium" edge, Pro Growth ranked #1 at +$20,602. High Stakes Classic came in a close second at +$19,793, and New at +$17,597.
• The gap between the three is small, and whatever you choose, your skill matters far more. At 1% risk and a "medium" edge, all three end up profitable more than 90% of the time.
• Pro Growth performs well because it's a single step, reaching funded status faster, and because it has no "$4,000 per request" payout cap like High Stakes does on the $100K account. In exchange, its split is 75% and the fee isn't refunded.
• On High Stakes, Classic outperformed New except at zero edge with 0.5% risk. New is $50 cheaper, but its Phase 1 target rises from 8% to 10%, making it harder.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), 0.5% and 1.0% risk per trade are all negative across the board. At 1.5% risk, all three end up barely positive (Classic +$731, New +$123, Pro Growth +$103) — but choosing a particular plan doesn't create a winning edge on its own.

The5ers' plans ($100K-equivalent)

High Stakes' refund is split into three parts. Passing Step 1 gives you 10% of the fee, and passing Step 2 gives you 20%, both as credit usable only toward buying your next challenge on The5ers' hub (not withdrawable). Once you go funded, the remaining 70% is added to your account balance. That 70% becomes payable at your first payout (minimum $150 profit, at least 14 days). In this simulation, the credit is applied toward the cost of re-buying, and the 70% is added to the account balance.

The $100K payout cap is $4,000 per request, with a $500 minimum. At an 80% split, $4,000 corresponds to $5,000 in total profit. Sizes of $25K and below have no cap.

Pro Growth is a separate, single-step program. With a 10% target, 6% max loss, and 3% daily loss, hitting the 3% daily loss ends the account entirely (its sibling plan, Hyper Growth, only pauses for the day). Evaluation sizes come in 4 options — $5K, $10K, $20K, and $50K — with a maximum of one account per size.

Simulation assumptions

Held fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, TP:SL ratio of 1:1
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of initial balance across all plans (once the next loss would push that day past 2.5%, no more trading that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size fixed at r% of initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost per trade is 5% of risk (win = +0.95R, loss = −1.05R)
• On failure, re-buy the same plan; no scaling; payouts every 14 days; profit remaining in the account at year-end is not counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Edge: win rate 50% (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• Amount of profit left in the account at each payout (chose the best amount for each plan)

The expected value formula

Expected value per trade

With a 1:1 TP:SL ratio and cost set to 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win pays +0.95R and a loss costs −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value over 1 year

1-year expected value = average payout received over the year + average fee refunded − average fee paid

• Payout received = withdrawal amount × split rate (High Stakes 80%, Pro Growth 75%). High Stakes' $100K caps at $4,000 per request
• Fee refunded: High Stakes returns credit (10% + 20%) plus 70% upon going funded. Pro Growth: none
• Fee paid = fee × number of purchases over the year (re-buying every time you fail)

Losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passing account grow uncapped. Because of this shape, there are conditions where even a slightly negative per-trade expected value turns positive over a full year. Since these three averages can't be derived analytically, we ran 20,000 one-year simulations following the actual rules and averaged the results (Monte Carlo method).

A concrete example with USDJPY

If USDJPY's round-trip cost is 1.5 pips, then a 30-pip SL/TP matches this article's "cost = 5% of risk" weighting. On a $100K account risking 1% ($1,000) per trade, at ¥150/$1 that's 5 lots (1 pip = $6.667). A win pays +$950, a loss costs −$1,050. At a 2-pip cost, a 40-pip SL/TP with 3.75 lots carries the same weighting. See the 4-firm comparison article for more detail.

0.5% risk per trade: average 1-year take-home minus fees

Probability of ending profitable (medium edge): Classic 73% / New 66% / Pro Growth 81%

1.0% risk per trade

Probability of ending profitable (medium edge): Classic 93% / New 90% / Pro Growth 94%

1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, once you've lost once, the next loss would exceed the 2.5% daily cap, so trading stops there for the day.

Probability of ending profitable (medium edge): Classic 94% / New 91% / Pro Growth 95%

Why the gap exists

At zero edge, Pro Growth comes out worst. Its fee is higher and there's no refund, so every failure-and-rebuy cycle piles losses straight on top of each other. As edge increases, the lack of a payout cap and the speed of the single-step format flip the ranking around.

High Stakes' payout cap bites hardest under conditions with large profits, like 1.5% risk with a "strong" edge. The gap between Classic and Pro Growth is $1,791 at 0.5% risk/"strong," but widens to $9,002 at 1.5% risk/"strong."

Which one should you buy

Pro Growth caps out at one $50K account. Since this article's figures are scaled to $100K-equivalent, a single $50K account would give exactly half the take-home and half the fee (roughly +$10,301 at 1% risk/"medium" edge).

👉 🎁 The5ers affiliate link (coupon JZWLR for 5% off)

FAQ

Q. Is The5ers' expected value positive?

It depends on your edge. Under this article's assumptions (2.5% daily stop, costs included), at a 55% win rate ("medium" edge), every plan averaged +$5,716 to +$27,002 per year. At a 50% win rate (zero edge), 0.5% and 1% risk per trade were all negative. Because prop structure caps your losses at the fee, it's more favorable than trading the same skill with your own capital — but it doesn't turn a losing strategy into a winning one.

Q. Is The5ers' fee refunded?

High Stakes refunds it in three parts. Passing Step 1 gives you 10%, and passing Step 2 gives you 20%, both as hub credit (usable only toward buying your next challenge, not withdrawable). Once you go funded, 70% is added to your account balance and becomes payable at your first payout. The 70% only applies to the portion paid via an external payment method, not credit. Pro Growth and Hyper Growth fees are not refunded.

Q. When and how much can I withdraw from The5ers?

High Stakes lets you request a payout every 14 days on a funded account. $100K allows up to $4,000 per request with a $500 minimum; $50K allows up to $3,000 with a $300 minimum; $25K and below have no cap. The minimum after the split is $150. Crypto payouts are capped at $1,500 per request. See our The5ers payout report for a firsthand account.

Q. Which is better, High Stakes Classic or New?

Under this article's conditions, Classic came out ahead except at zero edge with 0.5% risk (New −$1,319 vs. Classic −$1,461). New is $50 cheaper ($405), but Phase 1's target rises from 8% to 10%. With the max loss unchanged at 8%, only the target gets heavier, increasing failure rate and offsetting the cheaper price. New's advantage is that you can hold up to 3 accounts each at smaller sizes ($2.5K–$10K).

Q. What's the difference between Pro Growth and Hyper Growth?

Both are single-step, with a 10% target, 6% max loss, 3% daily loss, and 1:30 leverage. Pro Growth requires a minimum of 3 profitable days, and hitting the 3% daily loss ends the account. Hyper Growth only "pauses for the day" at 3% daily loss, and the account doubles in size each time you hit the target — but the fee is higher, and sizes cap out at $20K. This article only models Pro Growth.

Q. I want to run this with my own assumptions

We've published the simulation engine and this article's config file. Edit the numbers in the config file (fee, target, max loss, split, etc.) to run it under your own conditions (requires Python and numba). Usage: python sim-prop-ev.py the5ers.json 20000.

What this model doesn't include

• The ban on opening orders within 2 minutes before/after major news events (High Stakes; profit during that window is deducted)
• Scaling (account growth every 10% and split increases), and Pro Growth/Hyper Growth bonuses
• Account count caps (High Stakes: one account of either $50K or $100K; Pro Growth: one per size)
• Prohibited practices (bulk trading, copy trading, etc.) and the pre-payout interview

Related

• 🏢 The5ers guide / Compare The5ers' plans
• 📊 FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, Hantec expected value comparison
• 📊 High Stakes pricing and rule changes (September 2026)
• 📊 High Stakes: which should you choose, 8% or 10%?
• 💰 The5ers payout report

Sources: The5ers, "High Stakes," "Payout Policy and Hub Credit in the High Stakes Program," "General rules for the High Stakes program," "Growth (Pro Growth / Hyper Growth)," "Drawdown rule for ProGrowth," "How many ProGrowth accounts can I have," "How does the Hyper Growth program work." All confirmed September 27, 2026.