What's TradingCult's Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of 2-Step and 2 Add-Ons: the 90% Split Add-On Wins If You Have Edge [September 2026]

⚠ Rules and pricing were confirmed on TradingCult's official site and official help center on September 27, 2026. Prices are list price ($100K).

Conclusion

• At "medium" edge or better, the 2-Step + 90%-split add-on wins at every lot size. At 1% risk per trade and "medium" edge, it came to +$24,854 for the year. The $68.85 add-on cost is quickly recovered by the larger payouts.
• At zero-to-small edge, the add-on that widens max loss from 10% to 15% tends to come out on top instead. It's harder to fail, so you rebuy less often.
• The 2-Step's weaknesses are the Funded account's 40% consistency rule (if your best day exceeds 40% of total profit, the payout is pushed back 14 days) and the fact that EAs (automated trading) can't be used.
• 1-Step, which has a payout cap, is excluded because this simulation's engine can't correctly model it (explained below).
• The only configurations that stayed positive at zero edge (50% win rate) were the three at 1.5% risk per trade and the 15%-max-loss add-on at 1% risk — and all of those were only thinly positive. Choosing a plan doesn't manufacture edge.

TradingCult's plans ($100K)

Daily loss is "5% of the prior day's closing balance (00:00 UTC)." As the balance grows, the amount you're allowed to lose in a day grows with it. Max loss is a static line fixed to the starting balance, and it doesn't move on a payout.

Add-ons can only be attached at purchase. There's also a third add-on (daily loss 5%→8%, +$68.85), but since this article assumes a 2.5%/day stop across all plans, widening the daily limit doesn't change the results.

Why 1-Step was excluded from the simulation

1-Step ($100K, $529) is a single step with a 10% target, 4% daily loss, and 8% max loss (trailing your highest balance, then locking at initial balance). The official help center has these rules:

• The payout cap after profit split is 6% of starting balance ($6,000 at $100K). Profit beyond that is voided, and an account that hits the cap can't trade anymore
• On the Funded account, at payout, your best day must be ≤25% of profit
• On the Funded account, per-instrument risk is capped at 2% of the prior day's closing balance, and EAs are banned (allowed during evaluation)

This simulation's engine can handle "a cap on a single payout," but not "the account is finished once the cap is hit." Running the numbers anyway would make it look better than reality, so it's left out of the tables. Buy this for $529, and what you can receive is at most $6,000 per account.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of initial balance across all plans (if the next loss would exceed 2.5%, stop trading for the rest of that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size fixed at r% of starting balance; one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (win = +0.95R, loss = −1.05R)
• On failure, rebuy the same plan; no scaling; payouts every 14 days (10 trading days); profit left in the account at year-end isn't counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Edge: win rate 50% (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• Amount of profit left in the account at payout time (the best amount was chosen for each plan)

Not included in this model, or handled differently

• The 40% consistency rule is officially only a rule at Funded-account payouts. Due to how the engine works, it's applied to the pass/fail check during evaluation too (slightly stricter than reality)
• News restrictions (no opening or closing within 5 minutes of a major indicator; all instruments during major US indicators, gold also banned during EU and G7 indicators)
• The ban on gambling-style trading (a single trade that reaches the target outright, oversized lots, repeatedly rebuying evaluations, etc.)
• The rule that an account closes after 30 days without trading
• The profit-split increase via scaling (up to 95%)

The expected-value formulas

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1, and cost set at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value for the year

Expected value for the year = average payout received over the year + average fee refunded − average fee paid

• Payout received = withdrawal amount × profit split (80%, or 90% with the split add-on)
• Fee refunded: none at TradingCult
• Fee paid = fee × number of times purchased over the year (rebuying on every failure)

Losses are capped at "fee × number of times purchased," while payouts from passed accounts have no ceiling. Because of this shape, some combinations turn positive over a full year even with a slightly negative expected value per trade. These three averages can't be derived with a formula, so I ran a full year of trading 20,000 times under the actual rules and took the average (a Monte Carlo method).

A concrete example in USD/JPY

Assuming a round-trip spread-plus-commission of 1.5 pips on USD/JPY, a 30-pip stop-loss/take-profit makes the cost 5% of risk (0.05R) — the same weight as this article's assumption. At $100K and 1% risk per trade, the risk is $1,000; since 1 pip on 1 lot (100,000 units) is about $6.667, a 30-pip stop-loss means 5 lots. A win nets +$950, a loss −$1,050. Full details of the math are in Expected value comparison: FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, Hantec.

0.5% risk per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

1.0% risk per trade

1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, a single loss already puts the next loss over the daily 2.5%, so trading stops there for the day.

Why the gap appears

At 1% risk per trade and "medium" edge, the 90%-split add-on's average payout was $26,539 (versus $23,590 for plain 2-Step) — even after paying for the add-on, it came out $2,729 ahead. The 15%-max-loss add-on brings average fees paid down to $1,003, but its payout growth doesn't reach the split add-on's.

You can attach both at once (all three add-ons together cost $165.24). This article doesn't calculate the combination, but as a rule of thumb: pick the split add-on at "medium" edge or better, and the max-loss add-on at zero-to-small edge.

Which should you buy?

FAQ

Q. Is TradingCult's expected value positive?

At "medium" edge (55% win rate, +0.05R per trade), it was positive on every plan at every lot size. At 1% risk per trade, plain 2-Step came to +$22,125 for the year, and +$24,854 with the 90%-split add-on. At zero edge (50% win rate), everything was negative at 0.5% risk; at 1% risk, only the 15%-max-loss add-on was positive, and only thinly, at +$205.

Q. Is TradingCult's fee refundable?

No, not even if you pass. Per the official terms, you can only request a refund if it's within 7 days of purchase and you haven't traded at all.

Q. When and how much can I withdraw (get paid) from TradingCult?

For 2-Step, you can submit your first request 14 days after your first trade on the Funded account, and every 14 days after that. You need at least $100 received, which at an 80% split means at least $125 in profit. Submitting a request auto-closes any open positions on the account. Payment is via crypto or Rise.

Q. What is the 40% consistency rule?

When you request a payout on a Funded account, your single best day's profit must be no more than 40% of total profit. If it exceeds that, the request is rejected and your next eligible request date is pushed back 14 days. For example, if you had a day where you made $1,000, you can't withdraw until total profit exceeds $2,500.

Q. Can I use an EA (automated trading)?

Not on 2-Step, during either evaluation or Funded. The official help center classifies using an EA/bot/algorithm as a "hard breach" (instant disqualification). 1-Step allows EA use during evaluation only — not on the Funded account.

Q. I want to run this with my own assumptions

I've published the simulation script and the TradingCult config file used in this article. Run python sim-prop-ev.py tradingcult.json to reproduce the same tables. You can rewrite the pricing and add-on combinations (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 TradingCult guide
• 📊 Compare TradingCult's plans
• 📊 Expected value comparison: FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, Hantec

Sources: TradingCult official site, "Plans and add-ons"; official help center: "What is the 2 Step Evaluation Challenge?", "What is the 1 Step Evaluation Challenge?", "How is Max Daily Loss calculated?", "How is Max Total Loss calculated?", "What is the minimum amount for payout?", "Can automated trading algorithms, software, EA's or bots be used?", "Is it possible to receive a refund of the Challenge?", "Terms & Conditions". All confirmed September 27, 2026.