What's the expected value at FundedNext? A 1-year simulation of the 4 Stellar plans puts 1-Step in 1st place; Instant is overpriced [September 2026]

Note: rules and prices were confirmed on September 27, 2026 on FundedNext's official site and official help center. Prices are list price (USD). Since Stellar Instant has no $100K size, its largest size, $20K, is scaled proportionally to a $100K-equivalent price ($599.99 → $2,999.95).

Conclusion

• Stellar 1-Step comes in 1st under nearly every condition. At 1% per trade and "medium" edge, it's +$24,161 for the year. 2-Step (+$22,603) and Lite (+$22,028) follow close behind.
• 1-Step is strong because you can withdraw every 5 business days once you pass. 2-Step and Lite take 21 days for the first payout and then every 14 days after, so you get fewer payouts over the year.
• 2-Step refunds the full fee on the first payout, so the lower your edge, the smaller your loss. 1-Step and Lite refund the fee on the 3rd payout instead.
• Stellar Instant came in last among the 4 plans. At the $100K-equivalent size it costs around $3,000, its 6% max loss is trailing, and the split starts at 70%. Even with the INSTANT30 coupon (30% off), it doesn't catch up to 2-Step or 1-Step at 1%+ per trade (only at 0.5% per trade and "medium" edge does it come close to 1-Step).
• At zero edge (50% win rate), only 2-Step, 1-Step, and Lite at 1.5% per trade come out positive, and even then the probability of ending in the black is only 42–55%. Picking a plan doesn't manufacture an edge.

FundedNext plans ($100K equivalent)

Daily loss is the amount you're allowed to lose in a day, expressed as "○% of the starting balance." On a $100K 2-Step account, it's a violation once that day's combined floating and realized loss exceeds $5,000.

Stellar Instant's max loss line sits 6% below the highest confirmed balance ever reached, and it rises every time you make a profit. It doesn't fall on a loss. The line never goes above the starting balance, so once the balance reaches 106% of the starting amount, the line stops at the starting balance. Since the line doesn't drop on a withdrawal, withdrawing all your profit brings the balance down to the same level as the line — and that fails you on the spot.

Coupons on the official site included INSTANT30 (30% off, exclusive to Stellar Instant — $20K becomes $419.99) and START6K (exclusive to the $6K size). This article also calculates a separate column for Instant with INSTANT30 applied.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss is capped at 2.5% of the starting balance across every plan (if the next loss would push past 2.5%, no more trades are taken that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss never exceed 3% (assumes you never trigger FundedNext's "3% per trade idea" rule)
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the starting balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (wins are +0.95R, losses are −1.05R)
• On failure, the same plan is bought again; no scaling; profit left in the account at year-end doesn't count
• Withdrawals follow the official cycle (2-Step and Lite: 15 business days first, then every 10; 1-Step: every 5 business days; Instant: every 10 business days when growth is 1%+)
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Edge: win rate 50% (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5%)
• How much profit is left in the account at each withdrawal (the best amount was chosen per plan)

Not modeled

• The "performance reward" — 15% of the challenge's profit target, paid out on the first scale-up (scaling wasn't modeled)
• Instant's 80% split from Tier 3 on (rises via scale-up; the model keeps it at 70%)
• Instant's "on-demand withdrawal at 5% growth" (the model only withdraws every 14 days)
• Paid add-ons like a 95% split and the EA add-on fee
• The rule that only 40% of news-trade profit counts, weekend holding, and leverage (FX 1:30)

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1 and cost at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p,

Expected value per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value for the year

Annual expected value = average payouts received during the year + average fee refunded − average fees paid

• Payouts received = withdrawal amount × split (80% for 2-Step, 1-Step, and Lite; 70% for Instant)
• Fee refunded: 2-Step refunds the full fee on the 1st payout; 1-Step and Lite refund it in full on the 3rd payout. Instant has no refund
• Fees paid = fee × number of purchases during the year (rebought every time you fail)

Losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passing account have no ceiling. Because of that shape, some plans come out positive over a year even though the per-trade expected value is slightly negative. These three averages can't be derived from a formula, so a full year of trading was run 20,000 times end-to-end following the rules exactly, and the results averaged (Monte Carlo method).

On USD/JPY (¥150/$), a 1.5-pip round-trip cost against a 30-pip stop/target, or 2 pips against 40 pips, both match this "cost is 5% of risk" assumption. On a $100K account at 1% per trade ($1,000), that's 5 lots at 30 pips or 3.75 lots at 40 pips. See the 4-firm comparison article for the detailed math.

0.5% per trade

Average annual take-home minus fees ($100K equivalent).

1.0% per trade

Probability of ending in the black ("medium" edge): 93% for 2-Step, 97% for 1-Step, 93% for Lite, 69% for Instant, and 80% for Instant (INSTANT30).

1.5% per trade

At 1.5% per trade, once you lose once, the next loss would exceed 2.5%, so the day stops there.

Why the numbers diverge

1-Step's max loss is only 6%, so you'll fail and rebuy more times before passing than with 2-Step (at 1% per trade, "medium" edge, average fees paid: $3,617 for 1-Step vs. $1,738 for 2-Step). It still comes in 1st because, once funded, withdrawals every 5 business days mean more payouts over the year.

Instant has no evaluation, so everyone is funded from day one. But because the 6% max loss is trailing, your room doesn't grow until 6% of profit has accumulated. Every failure means repaying roughly $3,000, and even at 1% per trade and "medium" edge, average fees paid came to $15,612.

Which one to buy

EAs can't be used on accounts of $50K or more

According to FundedNext's official help article "Is EA allowed in FundedNext?" (updated September 8, 2026), accounts of $50,000 or more can't use EAs, bots, or automation tools — trading must be fully manual. This applies during the challenge and on funded accounts alike.

EAs can only be used on MT4/MT5 accounts under $50,000, and there's a separate, non-refundable usage fee (add-on). On cTrader and Match-Trader, EAs can't be used regardless of account size. Tools that automatically adjust SL, TP, or lot size also count as EAs.

Since this article's simulation is at the $100K-equivalent size, anyone running an EA can't apply these numbers directly. Sizes under $50K have a different fee-to-account ratio (for example, 2-Step $25K is $199.99, or 0.80% of the account, vs. 0.55% for $100K), so you can't just divide these numbers by four. See the FundedNext EA ban article for details. Note that FundedNext Futures runs under different rules and does allow EAs (FundedNext Futures expected value).

FAQ

Q. Is FundedNext's expected value positive?

With a 55% win rate (a per-trade EV of +0.05R), Stellar 2-Step, 1-Step, and Lite were all positive at every lot size. At 1% per trade, that's +$22,028 to +$24,161 for the year. At zero edge (50% win rate), it's negative at 0.5% and 1% per trade, and only thinly positive at 1.5%. Instant was deeply negative at every lot size for zero and "small" edge.

Q. Is FundedNext's fee refunded?

Stellar 2-Step refunds the fee alongside the 1st payout; Stellar 1-Step and Stellar Lite refund it on the 3rd payout. Stellar Instant has no refund. The EA add-on fee is never refunded.

Q. How often can you withdraw at FundedNext?

Stellar 1-Step lets you withdraw every 5 business days once you pass. Stellar 2-Step and Lite pay out the first time 21 days after you start trading, then every 14 days. Stellar Instant is on-demand once account growth reaches 5%, or every 14 days if growth is between 1% and 5%. The split is 80% for 2-Step, 1-Step, and Lite, and 70% for Instant (80% from Tier 3 on).

Q. Why does Stellar Instant perform so poorly?

Because the fee is expensive relative to the account. At $20K, it's $599.99 — 3.0% of the account, more than 5x 2-Step's 0.55%. On top of that, the 6% max loss is trailing, and the line rises every time you make a profit, making failure more likely. Every failure means repaying the fee, so the losses stack up.

Q. Isn't Stellar 1-Step's 6% max loss too tight?

You'll fail and rebuy more often before passing than with 2-Step. Even so, if you cap daily loss at 2.5% and size around 1% per trade, the speed of payouts wins out, and 1-Step came out ahead over a year. If you size at 2%+ per trade, or you're prone to big losing days, 2-Step is the safer choice.

Q. I want to run this with my own conditions

The simulation script and this article's config file are both public. Running python sim-prop-ev.py fundednext.json reproduces the same tables. Edit the price or split in the config file to calculate scenarios with add-ons applied too (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 FundedNext guide
• 📊 Compare FundedNext's plans
• 📊 FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, Hantec expected-value comparison
• ⚠️ FundedNext bans EAs above $50K
• 📊 FundedNext Futures expected value

Sources: FundedNext, "Stellar 2-Step," "Stellar 1-Step," "Stellar Lite," "Stellar Instant," official help center "Is EA allowed in FundedNext?," "What is the Maximum Daily Loss Limit?," "How often will I receive my Performance Reward?," "Stellar 1-Step's refund," "Stellar Instant's max loss," "Stellar Instant's max loss after a withdrawal," "Stellar Instant's split," "Stellar Instant's withdrawal conditions." All confirmed September 27, 2026.