What's FundingPips' Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of 6 Plans Under the New Rules (From September 28, 2026): At 1% Risk, 1 Step Flex (3% Daily) Is 1st and 2 Step Standard (3% Daily) Is 2nd [September 2026]

⚠ These numbers use the new rules for accounts bought on or after September 28, 2026. Existing accounts (old rules) will get different results. The new rules are summarized in FundingPips relaxes its rules.

⚠ Rules and prices were confirmed on FundingPips' official checkout and Trading Objectives page on September 28, 2026. Prices are list price ($100K).

Conclusion

• If you risk 1% per trade, 1 Step Flex (3% daily) is 1st, at +$24,406 for the year with "medium" edge. 2 Step Standard (3% daily) is 2nd at +$22,219.
• If you risk 0.5% or 1.5% per trade, 1 Step Flex (2% daily) is 1st at every skill level. It's $137 cheaper than the 3% daily version, and that's why it comes out on top. But at 1% risk, once you're down −1.05% on the day, one more loss would break the 2% daily limit, so you can't trade any more that day. That's why it drops far down the ranking at 1%.
• For 2 Step Standard, pick the 3% daily option. It's $108 cheaper than 5% daily and has 0 minimum trading days. With the trading style in this article (stop for the day at a 2.5% loss), you never use the extra room of 5% daily, so 3% daily came out ahead in every scenario.
• At 1% risk and zero edge (50% win rate), only the two 1 Step Flex plans were positive, and just barely: +$453 and +$24. Choosing a plan doesn't create an edge.
• The new rules removed the per-trade risk cap and the warning system for floating losses (the Striking System). The only things to watch are the daily loss limit and the max loss.

FundingPips plans ($100K equivalent, new rules)

For 2 Step Standard and 1 Step Flex, you choose the daily loss limit when you buy. A wider daily limit costs more (for 2 Step Standard, 5% daily also adds a 3-day minimum).

The monthly 100% cycle requires a 35% best-day consistency rule and "7 profitable days of 0.5% or more." This article uses each plan's standard cycle (weekly for Pro, bi-weekly for the rest). 2 Step Flex also lets you choose bi-weekly 95% after 3 profitable days, but the model uses 80%, so the Flex numbers are a little low.

The new rules page doesn't mention a challenge-fee refund, so the model assumes no refund. Under the old rules, 2 Step Standard alone refunded the fee on the 4th payout.

Max loss on every plan is a "static line fixed from the starting account size." It doesn't rise when you take a payout.

Prices for other sizes (list price)

Only 2 Step Pro also comes in $200K ($919). New users get 10% off with FP, shown in the site banner.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), up to 3 trades per day, take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of the initial balance for every plan (on a day where the next loss would push past 2.5% or the firm's daily limit, no more trades that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss and daily loss never exceed 3%
• Lot size fixed at r% of the initial balance, one position at a time
• Costs are 5% of risk per trade (a win is +0.95R, a loss is −1.05R)
• After a breach, buy the same plan again; no scaling; payouts on each plan's cycle (bi-weekly = 10 trading days, weekly = 5 trading days); profit left in the account at year end isn't counted
• No fee refund
• 20,000 runs per scenario

Varied

• Plan
• Skill: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%)
• How much profit to leave in the account at each payout (the best amount was chosen for each plan)

Not included in this model

• Deducting profit from trades opened or closed within 5 minutes of major news on the Master (funded) account
• The +10% add-on needed to hold overnight or over the weekend on the Master account (this model doesn't hold positions overnight)
• 2 Step Flex's bi-weekly 95% and the monthly 100% cycle

How the expected value is calculated

Expected value per trade

With take-profit and stop-loss at 1:1 and costs at 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p:

EV per trade = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

Expected value for one year

1-year EV = average payouts received in the year − average fees paid

• Payouts received = payout amount × profit split (80% on every plan)
• Fees paid = fee × number of purchases in the year (you rebuy after every breach)

Your losses are capped at "fee × number of purchases," but payouts from a passed account have no cap. Because of that shape, some combinations come out positive over a year even when the EV per trade is slightly negative. The two averages can't be solved with a formula, so I simulated one year of trading under the rules 20,000 times and took the average (Monte Carlo method).

A USD/JPY example

If USD/JPY spread plus commission is 1.5 pips round trip, a 30-pip stop and target make costs 5% of risk (0.05R), the same weight as this article's assumption. On $100K at 1% risk, the risk is $1,000; one lot (100,000 units) is about $6.667 per pip, so a 30-pip stop means 5 lots. A win nets +$950 and a loss −$1,050. The full calculation is in FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei and Hantec expected value compared.

0.5% per trade: average 1-year take-home minus fees

At 0.5% per trade, even 3 losses in a day come to 1.575%, which doesn't reach the 2% daily limit. 1 Step Flex (2% daily), the same plan for $137 less, is 1st at every skill level.

1.0% per trade

From "small" edge up, 1 Step Flex (3% daily) is 1st and 2 Step Standard (3% daily) is 2nd (at "small" only, 2 Step Standard's +$4,857 and 1 Step Flex 2% daily's +$4,802 are nearly tied).

With 1 Step Flex (2% daily) at 1% risk, once the day's loss reaches −1.05%, one more loss would break the 2% daily limit. So you stop for the day there, and you get fewer trades. The more edge you have, the more this hurts: at "medium" it came out about $5,900 below the 3% daily version.

1.5% per trade

At 1.5% per trade, after one loss the next loss would push past 2.5% for the day, so every plan stops there for the day. Since 2% and 3% daily stop at the same place, the cheaper 1 Step Flex (2% daily) is 1st again.

Under the old rules, 1.5% per trade hit the floating-loss warning on 1 Step Flex and 2 Step Standard. Under the new rules you can risk it on any plan.

Why the results differ

For 2 Step Pro, the target (6%) is the same size as the max loss (6%). At 1% risk, being 6 losses net down means a breach, yet you need to be 6 wins net up to clear each phase. As a result, at 1% risk and "medium" edge it made +$18,822, about $3,400 below 2 Step Standard (3% daily).

Which one to buy

New users get 10% off with FP. Which daily limit to pick depends on your risk per trade. At about 1% per trade, you need 3% daily so that two losses don't reach the limit. At about 0.5% (3 losses come to 1.575%), or at about 1.5% where you stop for the day after one loss, 2% daily is enough.

FAQ

Q. Is FundingPips' expected value positive?

With "medium" edge (55% win rate, +0.05R EV per trade), every plan at every risk level was positive. At 1% risk, 1 Step Flex (3% daily) made +$24,406 for the year. With zero edge (50% win rate), the only plans positive at 1% risk were the two 1 Step Flex plans (+$453 and +$24), and their chance of ending in profit was 30% and 32%. Even though the prop structure caps your losses at the fee, there's no expected value left if you don't have the win rate.

Q. Which accounts does this calculation apply to, new rules or old?

Accounts bought on or after September 28, 2026, under the new rules. Accounts you already hold stay on the old rules, which still have the per-trade risk cap and the floating-loss warning (Striking System). On an old-rules account, risking 1% or more per trade on 1 Step Flex triggers warnings, so these tables won't hold.

Q. Does FundingPips refund the challenge fee?

The new rules page doesn't mention a refund, so this article assumes no refund. Under the old rules, 2 Step Standard alone refunded the fee on the 4th payout. Check the checkout page before you buy.

Q. Does the max loss line rise after a payout?

No. On every plan, max loss is a static line based on the starting account size, and it doesn't move when you take a payout. If you leave profit in the account instead of withdrawing it, you get that much more room above the max loss.

Q. Which daily loss limit should I choose?

For 2 Step Standard, 3% daily. It's cheaper, has 0 minimum trading days, and beat 5% daily in every scenario in this article. For 1 Step Flex, choose 3% daily if you risk about 1% per trade, and 2% daily if you risk about 0.5% or about 1.5%. You only need 3% daily when you risk about 1% per trade and have days with 2 losses.

Q. I want to run it with my own settings

The simulation script and the FundingPips settings file used in this article are public. python sim-prop-ev.py fundingpips.json produces the same tables. You can edit prices and payout cycles and rerun it (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 FundingPips guide
• 📰 FundingPips relaxes its rules (September 28, 2026)
• 📊 FundingPips plan comparison
• 📊 FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei and Hantec expected value compared
• 📊 Rule leniency ranking: 15 firms compared

Sources: FundingPips official "Trading Objectives" and "checkout," and official X post "CFD's glory days are back." All checked September 28, 2026.