What Is Fundora's Expected Value? Running the 2-Step Challenge Through a 1-Year Simulation by Account Size, Standard (¥20M) Comes Out Best [September 2026]

※ Rules and pricing were confirmed on Fundora's official site (pricing table, trading rules guide, FAQ, terms of service) on September 27, 2026. Fundora bills in yen, so we've normalized the entry fee to "a percentage of account size" and shown it as an equivalent $100K figure (e.g. a ¥20M account at ¥99,999 is 0.500% of the account, shown here as $500 on a $100K-equivalent basis).

Conclusion

• Fundora's rules are identical across every account size, so the only thing that differs is the entry-fee percentage. Standard (¥20M, ¥99,999 = 0.500%) — the cheapest relative to account size — came out on top under every condition tested. At 1% risk per trade and "medium" skill, that's +$21,319 a year ($100K-equivalent).
• The average payout you actually receive is nearly identical across sizes; the only difference is what you spend on retries. Entry, the smallest plan (¥2.5M, 1.080%), pays more than double Standard's percentage, so the gap widens sharply at zero-to-small edge.
• Compared with the same setup in our 4-firm comparison, Standard sits at roughly the same level as Fintokei's challenge (+$21,609) — the target, daily loss, max loss, and split are all close, and so is the entry-fee percentage.
• However, Fundora has a 1% rule: no single loss may exceed 1% of equity. The "1.5% per trade" scenario in this article would trigger a warning or fail under Fundora's actual rules, so treat it as a reference figure only. Even 1% per trade, once costs are added in, edges slightly past 1%.
• At zero edge (50% win rate), 0.5% and 1% risk per trade are both negative across every account size. Choosing a plan doesn't create an edge on its own.

Fundora's plans ($100K-equivalent)

The evaluation rules are identical across every plan — only account size and entry fee differ (the official pricing table states "evaluation rules are the same across all plans").

There's also a ¥60M Master plan (¥449,999, 0.750%), but we've left it out since its percentage falls between Professional and Growth.

The 33.3% rule applies when you request a payout on the funded account. If "your single best day's profit ÷ total profit" exceeds 33.33%, the payout is deferred by 14 days. It's not a fail — keep trading to bring the ratio down and you can still receive it. It doesn't apply during evaluation (Phase 1/2).

The payout cap is 10% of the initial balance on the 1st payout and 15% on the 2nd (after the 80% split is applied). On a ¥20M account, that's up to ¥2M on the first payout. We couldn't confirm the cap from the 3rd payout onward on the official site. In the simulation, every payout is capped the same as the 1st (12.5% of initial balance, pre-split).

Simulation assumptions

Same assumptions as our sample 4-firm comparison.

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades/day, 1:1 take-profit to stop-loss
• Daily loss capped at 2.5% of initial balance (once a further loss would exceed 2.5% for the day, no more trades are opened that day)
• Lot size fixed at r% of initial balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win is +0.95R, a loss is −1.05R)
• On a fail, the same plan is repurchased; no scaling; profit left in the account at year-end doesn't count
• First payout 20 trading days (28 days) after reaching funded status, then every 10 trading days (14 days)
• The 33.3% rule defers a payout to the next cycle if, on payout day, "best single day ÷ sum of profitable days" exceeds 33.3%
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan (account size = entry-fee percentage)
• Skill: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%)
• How much profit is left in the account at payout time (the best amount was chosen per plan; for Fundora, "leave nothing" was best under every condition)

Not modeled

• Warnings/fails from the 1% rule (the 1.5%-per-trade scenario would technically trigger this)
• The ban on closing trades within 20 seconds, account closure after 30 days of no trading, and multi-account rules
• The fine details of the 33.3% rule's calculation. The official denominator is "total profit (current balance − initial balance)," which is reduced by losing days too. Our model uses "sum of profitable days" as the denominator, which is a slightly more lenient judgment than official. Conversely, the model also applies the same check during evaluation, which pushes passing slightly later than reality
• The payout cap from the 3rd payout onward (unconfirmed officially)
• The $3-per-lot one-way commission is assumed to be already included in the cost (5% of risk)

The expected-value formula

Per-trade expected value

With a 1:1 take-profit to stop-loss and a cost of 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is −1.05R. With win rate p,

Per-trade EV = p × 0.95R − (1 − p) × 1.05R = (2p − 1.05) × R

1-year expected value

1-year EV = average payout received over the year − average entry fees paid

• Payout received = withdrawal amount × split (80%). Capped at 10% of initial balance (post-split) per payout
• Entry fees paid = entry fee × number of purchases in the year (repurchased every time you fail)

Fundora has no mechanism to refund the entry fee, so the formula has just these two terms. Losses stop at "entry fee × number of purchases," while payouts from a passing account grow without limit. Because of this shape, conditions exist where even a slightly negative per-trade EV turns positive over a full year. Since the average can't be derived analytically, we ran 20,000 simulated years of trading under the actual rules and took the average (Monte Carlo method).

A worked example in USD/JPY

On a ¥20M account at 1% risk per trade, that's a ¥200,000 risk. At ¥150/$1, 1 pip on 1 lot (100,000 units) of USD/JPY is worth ¥1,000, so a 30-pip stop-loss gives ¥200,000 ÷ (30 pips × ¥1,000) = about 6.7 lots. If the round-trip spread and commission come to 1.5 pips, the cost is 1.5 ÷ 30 = 5% of risk — the same weight assumed in this article. Fundora's commission is $3 one-way per lot (round-trip $6, about 0.6 pips), which falls in this range as long as the spread is around 1 pip. See the 4-firm comparison article for a detailed table of lot sizes and effective leverage.

0.5% risk per trade

Average 1-year take-home minus entry fees ($100K-equivalent).

Probability of a positive result (Standard): zero 4% / small 19% / medium 72% / strong 98%

1.0% risk per trade

Probability of a positive result (Standard): zero 22% / small 53% / medium 91% / strong 100%

In yen, Standard's (¥20M) "medium" result of +$21,319 is 21.319% of the account, which works out to about ¥4.26M a year in take-home (after entry fees).

1.5% risk per trade

At Fundora, 1.5% per trade violates the 1% rule. Treat this only as a reference figure for comparison. At 1.5% per trade, a single loss already puts the next loss over the 2.5% daily limit, so trading stops there for the day.

Probability of a positive result (Standard): zero 34% / small 60% / medium 91% / strong 99%

Why the gap exists

The average payout received was nearly identical across every size (around $22,860 at 1% risk, medium skill). That's expected, since the rules are the same. The entire gap comes from "entry fees paid." The lower your skill, the more often you fail and repurchase, widening the gap against the pricier sizes. At "strong" skill, fails are rare, so the gap shrinks to a few hundred dollars.

We also isolated how much Fundora's own quirks weigh on the numbers, using Standard. Removing the 33.3% rule took 1%-risk/medium from +$21,319 to +$21,983 (+$664), and 1.5%-risk/medium from +$25,284 to +$28,271 (+$2,987). Removing the payout cap (10% per payout) only moved 1%-risk/medium to +$21,355 — a $36 difference. Under the risk-taking assumed in this model, the 33.3% rule matters more than the cap, and it weighs more heavily the harder you push. It bites even harder for a style that takes big single-day wins.

Waiting 28 days for the first payout on the funded account is also a disadvantage compared with other firms (most use 14 days). That wait time is already included in this article's numbers.

Which one to buy

Holding multiple accounts has been allowed since December 10, 2025, but hedging between accounts and "mirroring" (opening the same instrument in the same direction across accounts at nearly the same time) is banned. If you're running the same method across multiple accounts, check the multi-account rules in the terms of service.

FAQ

Q. Is Fundora's expected value positive?

It depends on your skill. At a 55% win rate (per-trade EV of +0.05R), Standard at 1% risk per trade came to +$21,319 a year ($100K-equivalent — about ¥4.26M on a ¥20M account). At a 50% win rate, both 0.5% and 1% risk per trade come out negative. The prop-firm structure gives you a slight tilt in your favor, but without an edge, it doesn't turn positive.

Q. Which account size is the best value at Fundora?

Standard (¥20M, ¥99,999), which has the lowest entry-fee percentage relative to account size. Since the evaluation rules are identical across every size, a lower percentage directly raises expected value. Entry (¥2.5M) charges more than double Standard's percentage.

Q. Is Fundora's entry fee refunded?

As of September 27, 2026, we couldn't find any program on the official site that refunds the entry fee on passing or on payout. This differs from FTMO (refund on first payout) or Fintokei (an equivalent amount at the white-belt level of its Scaling Dojo). The simulation also assumes no refund.

Q. When and how much can I receive from Fundora payouts?

The first payout comes 28 days after the first trade on the funded account, then every 14 days after that. The cap is 10% of initial balance on the 1st payout and 15% on the 2nd (after the 80% split). If the payout is under ¥10,000, or the 33.3% rule isn't satisfied, it's deferred by 14 days. Payment is via domestic bank transfer, typically arriving 2-3 business days after review.

Q. Does hitting the 1% rule mean an automatic fail?

A single violation doesn't mean an instant fail. The official FAQ states that failing to improve after a warning from the risk team can lead to a fail. The standard is "a loss exceeding 1% of equity occurring even temporarily," which also covers the combined total of highly correlated positions and trades placed without a stop-loss.

Q. I want to run this with my own assumptions

We've published the simulation engine and this article's config file (Fundora). Running python sim-prop-ev.py fundora.json reproduces the same tables. You can rewrite the win rate, lot size, and pricing to recalculate (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 Fundora guide / Compare Fundora's plans
• 📊 FTMO vs. The5ers vs. Fintokei vs. Hantec: expected-value comparison
• 📊 Fundora vs. Fintokei
• 📘 The complete guide to consistency rules

Sources: Fundora's official site (evaluation plans), Trading rules guide, Pass/fail criteria and post-pass process, The 33.3% rule, Criteria for 1% risk trading and 20-second scalping, About payouts, FAQ, Terms of service. All confirmed September 27, 2026.