[September 2026] I Calculated Lucid Trading's Expected Value — At Zero Edge, Go Flex (With Daily Loss); With an Edge, Go Daily (No Payout Cap)
※ Prices and rules were confirmed on Lucid Trading's official Help Center (support.lucidtrading.com) and pricing page on September 23, 2026. The figures are Monte Carlo results and do not guarantee future performance.
📢 Advertising / affiliate disclosure: We do not hold an affiliate link for Lucid Trading.
TL;DR
- At zero edge, go with Flex $50K (with a daily loss limit). At 0.30 lots, that's +$2,152/year (68% probability of finishing positive). The best of the three firms compared (FundedNext, MFFU, Lucid)
- With an edge, go with Daily $50K. No cap on payouts after passing, and you can withdraw every day. At "medium" edge, 0.30 lots gives +$23,859/year
- Still doesn't reach FTMO Futures Pro $50K. At the same 0.30 lots and zero edge, FTMO comes to +$4,836
- Adding a daily loss limit makes the price cheaper. If you only take one trade a day, the daily loss limit rarely bites, so adding it is the better deal
- On Daily, holding a position within 1 minute of a major economic release is an instant fail. There's no VPS policy stated anywhere
Prices and rules (verified live, September 23, 2026)
Prices shown are what's on the official homepage, after applying coupon VAULT and a limited-time discount.
| Flex $50K | Pro $50K | Daily $50K (evaluation is EOD-based) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price (no daily loss) | $105.20 | $140.40 | $119 |
| Price (with daily loss) | $90.20 | $115.40 | $94 |
| Reset (without / with) | $105 / $90 | $140 / $115 | $135 / $110 |
| Profit target | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 |
| Max loss | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 |
| Daily loss (if added) | $1,200 (halts for the day) | $1,200 | $1,200 |
| Evaluation consistency | 50% | None (can pass in a single day) | 50% |
| Max loss after passing | EOD-based (fixed after a payout) | EOD-based | Trailing, tracking floating profit too |
| Payout conditions | 5 days of $150+ profit + net positive over the cycle | $500 + 40% consistency + $2,100 buffer | Buffer over $2,100 |
| Amount withdrawable | 50% of profit | Full amount | Full amount above the buffer |
| Per-payout cap | $2,000 | 1st: $2,000; 2nd onward: $2,500 | None |
| Cap on number of payouts | Moves to a live account after 5 | Moves to a live account after 5 | None (moves to a live account after earning $8,000 in a day) |
| Split | 90% | 90% | 90% |
Common across every plan:
- The evaluation's max loss is an EOD-based trailing stop, locking at initial balance + $100
- No minimum trading days or time limit during evaluation
- Whether to add a daily loss limit is chosen at purchase and can't be changed later
- Daily forced close is at 4:45 PM ET (5:45 the next morning JST in summer, 6:45 in winter). No overnight holds
- Up to 5 funded accounts per household. Japan is not a restricted country
Automated trading and VPS
Automated trading and trade copiers are permitted.
Automated trading systems and trade copiers are permitted. All automated activity must comply with Lucid Trading rules.
What's banned is HFT, and hedging across accounts (including correlated instruments like ES and NQ). If profit from trades closed within 5 seconds exceeds 50% of total profit, it's treated as micro-scalping. Martingale is "strongly discouraged," but not banned.
Neither the Help Center nor the terms of service say anything about VPS or VPN. If you plan to run an EA on the cloud, confirm with support first.
Assumptions
Same as our FTMO Futures expected-value article.
- One trade per trading day on micro gold (MGC). With a 0.6% stop-loss, the loss on 0.10 lots (1 MGC contract) is $262
- Evaluation and funded accounts use the same lot size. 1 year (252 trading days)
- Commission is $1.60 round-trip per MGC contract (official)
- On a fail, reset; on losing a funded account or hitting the payout-count cap, repurchase
- Profit left in the account at year-end, and profit after moving to a live account, isn't counted
- For plans with a daily loss limit attached, lot size is capped (up to 0.30) so a single loss stays within $1,200
- Pro's payout cap was calculated using the 1st payout's $2,000 rather than the $2,500 from the 2nd onward (the more conservative side)
Result ①: annual expected value at a fixed 0.30 lots
| Skill | Flex (with daily loss) | Flex (without) | Pro (without) | Daily (without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −0.04R | +$702 | +$266 | −$1,104 | −$927 |
| Zero edge | +$2,152 (68%) | +$1,746 | +$519 | +$625 |
| Small (50% win rate, RR 1.2) | +$6,705 | +$6,338 | +$5,097 | +$7,438 |
| Medium (55% win rate, RR 1.2) | +$14,501 | +$14,222 | +$12,958 | +$23,859 |
| Strong (60% win rate, RR 1.2) | +$23,713 | +$23,496 | +$22,090 | +$44,255 |
The number in parentheses is the probability of finishing positive. "Strong" is a reference figure that almost nobody realistically achieves.
- Flex is better with the daily loss limit attached. The price drops by $15, and at 1 trade/day and 0.30 lots, you'll almost never hit a $1,200 daily loss
- With an edge, go Daily. No cap and daily payouts — 1.6x Flex at "medium" skill
- Pro trails Flex at every skill level. No evaluation consistency rule means passing faster, but the payout conditions after passing (40% consistency + buffer) are heavy
Result ②: the best configuration for each plan
| Skill | Flex (with) | Flex (without) | Pro (without) | Daily (without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero edge | +$2,152 (0.30) | +$1,946 (0.70) | +$519 (0.30) | +$5,385 (0.70) |
| Small | +$6,705 (0.30) | +$10,648 (0.50) | +$8,458 (0.50) | +$19,395 (0.70) |
| Medium | +$14,501 (0.30) | +$20,291 (0.50) | +$17,907 (0.50) | +$57,277 (0.70) |
The number in parentheses is lot size. On Daily, expected value rises the harder you push lot size — even at zero edge, 0.70 lots gives +$5,385/year. But this assumes 59 resets a year, sizing where a single loss eats 92% of the max loss. Not a realistically usable strategy.
Comparison with FTMO Futures and Topstep ($50K, 0.30 lots)
| Skill | Lucid Flex (with) | Lucid Daily | FTMO Futures Pro | Topstep |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero edge | +$2,152 | +$625 | +$4,836 | +$2,519 |
| Medium | +$14,501 | +$23,859 | +$26,306 | +$24,982 |
FTMO Futures Pro comes out on top for expected value. Lucid's strengths are its low price (Flex at $90.20), low commission (MGC round-trip $1.60), and Daily's uncapped daily payouts.
Watch out for
- On Daily, holding a position within 1 minute of a major economic release is an instant fail (a hard violation). An EA holding positions for hours needs a mechanism to avoid the release window
- There's no VPS policy stated
- There are internal inconsistencies in the official materials.
- Pro $25K's daily loss: "none" per the Help Center, but $600 per the pricing page
- Flex's withdrawable amount: the same article describes it two ways, as "50% of profit" and "50% of balance"
- Payout cap: the overview page says "no cap," while individual plan articles list one
- Prices shown are from the official homepage; we haven't confirmed whether checkout shows the same amount
- The account is deleted after 30 days of no trading
FAQ
Q. Which plan should I buy?
If you're not confident in your edge, go with Flex $50K with a daily loss limit attached ($90.20). Even at zero edge, it's +$2,152/year — the best of the three firms we looked at. With an edge, go Daily $50K — at "medium" skill and 0.30 lots, that's +$23,859/year.
Q. Should I add the daily loss limit?
If you take one trade a day and a single loss is smaller than $1,200, adding it is the better deal. The price and reset fee both get cheaper, and you'll almost never hit the daily loss. If you trade multiple times a day, the downside is that trading for the day gets halted.
Q. Can I run an EA on a VPS?
Unknown — there's no official statement on this. Automated trading itself is permitted. Confirm with support before putting it on a VPS.
Reference links (official)
- Lucid Trading official site (pricing and coupon
VAULT) - LucidFlex evaluation / payouts
- LucidPro evaluation / after passing
- LucidDaily
- Automated trading / HFT
- Fees / Restricted countries
Simulation script: scripts/sim-futures-3firms-ev.py (engine: scripts/sim-futures-prop-ev.py)
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Written by
Hosono P | the prop firm strategist
I buy challenges with my own money and record everything through to the payout. Recorded payouts: ¥6.1M in total from Fintokei, Fundora and Funded7, plus $4,776 from The5ers (as of September 2026). Author of the semi-discretionary EA "ELDRA".