[September 2026] I calculated Topstep's expected value — it loses to FTMO Futures at the same lot size; you only win by sizing up big with no daily loss limit

Note: prices and rules were confirmed on the Topstep official help center on September 23, 2026. The figures are Monte Carlo simulation results and don't guarantee future performance.

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TL;DR

• At the same lot size, it loses to FTMO Futures Pro. At $50K and 0.30 lots, zero edge is +$2,519/year (FTMO: +$4,836), and small edge is +$8,651 (FTMO: +$10,141)
• The reason it loses comes down to three things: a $149 activation fee on every pass, withdrawals capped at 50% of balance, and a tight $2,000 max loss
• Topstep wins when you size up big without a daily loss limit. At $50K and 0.50 lots, small edge comes to +$16,453/year (97% probability of ending positive)
• But that requires 25–39 resets a year, which risks running into Topstep's ban on "excessive purchase of resets"
• The gap between with/without the activation fee, and between Standard and Consistency, is small. If you're unsure, go with the activation fee and Consistency

Prices and rules (confirmed September 23, 2026)

Trading Combine (evaluation)

• Max loss is EOD trailing, and it locks once it reaches the starting balance. Floating loss counts toward the judgment too
• Exceeding consistency doesn't fail you — it raises the target instead
• Daily loss is optional ($1,000 / $2,000 / $3,000). Hitting it just closes that day's positions — it's not a failure
• Reset cost equals the monthly fee. Resetting pushes the billing date out 30 days from that day
• Every monthly renewal banks 1 free reset (it doesn't expire if unused)
• The monthly fee stops automatically once you pass
• With the activation fee, plans cost $149 on passing. Without it, the monthly fee is higher but it's $0

Express Funded Account (the account after passing)

• Starts from a $0 balance. Max loss is EOD trailing, and once the balance reaches the loss amount, it locks at $0
• After the first payout, max loss locks at $0. Whatever balance remains after the withdrawal becomes your room
• Withdrawals are capped at 50% of balance, minimum $125, and you keep 90% of it
• There are 2 withdrawal conditions (chosen when you open the account)
  • Standard: 5 days with a $150+ winning day
  • Consistency: 3 trading days + best day ≤ 40% of profit over the period
• The 2x cap under "if purchased with a daily loss limit" is a limited-time offer running since June 2, 2026 (no end date announced). You need to add a daily loss limit when buying the Trading Combine
• You can hold up to 5 accounts at once
• Fees are $1.92 round-trip per MGC contract (official TopstepX figure)

Assumptions

Same assumptions as the FTMO Futures expected-value article.

• One trade per trading day on micro gold (MGC). At a 0.6% stop-loss, a loss on 0.10 lots (1 MGC contract) is $262
• Same lot size on the evaluation and the funded account
• On failure, use a banked free reset first. If none are available, buy one (since buying doesn't wait for the billing date to shift, buying is better than waiting)
• If you lose the funded account, immediately rebuy the evaluation
• Period: 1 year (252 trading days). Profit left in the account after 1 year doesn't count
• When a daily loss limit is set, only use a lot size where a single loss fits within the daily loss room

The same 6 edge levels (−0.10R through "strong") apply. "Strong" is a reference value that essentially nobody hits in reality.

Result 1: at the same lot size, it loses to FTMO Futures Pro

Compared at $50K and 0.30 lots. Topstep uses the activation fee + Consistency; FTMO Futures uses Pro $50K.

The gap is widest at zero edge, for three reasons:

• The $149 activation fee. At zero edge, you pass about 7 times a year, so the activation fee alone comes to roughly $1,060/year
• Withdrawals capped at 50% of balance. FTMO Pro allows 100%
• A $2,000 max loss. FTMO Pro's is $3,000 — the same as its target

Result 2: without a daily loss limit, sizing up flips the result

FTMO Pro's $1,000 daily loss is hard, capping it at 0.30 lots. Topstep's daily loss is optional, so without one you can size up further.

Annual expected value at $50K (activation fee, no daily loss limit, Consistency).

At "small" and "medium" edge, 0.50 lots is best, beating FTMO Pro's best (+$10,141 / +$26,306).

But there are two costs.

• A single loss wipes out most of the max loss. At 0.70 lots, one loss is effectively game over
• The number of resets balloons. Topstep's prohibited-conduct list names "excessive purchase of Trading Combines or resets," and 39 resets a year is likely to run into it. A violation could lead to account restrictions or suspension

The reason 0.70 lots comes out best at zero edge is exactly this structure. Since a loss is capped by the monthly fee and reset cost either way, sizing up bigger looks more favorable. In practice, it's not a usable strategy.

Result 3: the gap from the activation fee and withdrawal method is small

Compared at $50K, 0.30 lots, with a daily loss limit.

• With no edge, go with the activation fee. The $49 monthly is cheap and suits people who reset often
• With an edge, no activation fee is slightly ahead. Fewer passes mean the higher monthly fee doesn't bite as much
• Standard and Consistency are within noise. At one trade a day, both conditions tend to be met around the same time

Result 4: should you add a daily loss limit?

Adding a daily loss limit means a single loss has to fit within the daily room, which caps $50K at 0.30 lots. In exchange, the withdrawal cap doubles.

• For $50K, skipping it is better. The account balance never gets large enough to make use of the doubled cap
• For $150K with an edge, adding it is better. The balance grows large enough that doubling the $6,000 cap to $12,000 pays off
• Even at $150K, skipping it lets you size up to 1.70 lots, which increases the number of resets per year

Result 5: the best setup by size

The best setup for each size.

Parentheses are the probability of ending positive. $50K at zero edge is, as shown above, the figure that assumes buying 51 resets a year.

Topstep or FTMO Futures — which to pick

What's not in this calculation

• Slippage. Assumes the stop-loss fills exactly.
• Profit left in the account after 1 year. Not counted, so the numbers for traders with an edge are understated.
• Live accounts (a move Topstep decides on) and Back2Funded (a program that revives a lost account for $599–$829).
• The end of the doubled-cap offer. Once it ends, adding a daily loss limit loses its advantage.

Comparison with other futures props (added September 23, 2026)

Using the same assumptions, here are the numbers for other futures props that allow automated trading.

I calculated FundedNext Futures' expected value · I calculated MyFundedFutures' expected value · I calculated Lucid Trading's expected value

FAQ

Q. Which has the higher expected value, Topstep or FTMO Futures?

At the same lot size, FTMO Futures Pro. At $50K, 0.30 lots, zero edge, it's Topstep +$2,519 vs. FTMO +$4,836. Topstep only pulls ahead when you size up to 0.50 lots or more without a daily loss limit.

Q. Which is better, with or without the activation fee?

If you're not confident in your edge, go with the activation fee (a $49 monthly). You'll end up buying resets often, so the cheaper monthly fee pays off. If you have an edge, no activation fee is slightly ahead, but the gap is under $200/year.

Q. Should you buy a reset after failing?

Yes. Resetting on Topstep pushes the billing date out 30 days, so waiting for the next billing date doesn't change what you end up paying — you just lose the days you waited. Use a banked free reset from a monthly renewal first, if you have one.

Q. Should you add a daily loss limit?

For $50K, skipping it gives a higher expected value. For $150K with an edge, adding it is better, because the doubled withdrawal cap makes a bigger difference.

Reference links (official)

• Topstep: Trading Combine Parameters
• Topstep: What is the Maximum Loss Limit?
• Topstep: Consistency at Topstep
• Topstep: Payout Policy
• Topstep: Pricing and Payment Questions
• Topstep: What is a Reset?
• Topstep: Daily Loss Limit
• Topstep: What is Responsible Trading? (excessive reset purchases)
• Topstep: TopstepX Commissions and Fees
• Double Payout Caps Terms & Conditions

Simulation script: scripts/sim-topstep-ev.py

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• I calculated FundedNext Futures' expected value
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