What's SuperFunded's Expected Value? Running a 1-Year Simulation of 1 Step and 2 Step Shows 2 Step Wins at 1% Risk or More (September 2026)

※ Rules and prices were confirmed on September 27, 2026 from SuperFunded's official site (the Challenges page and FAQ) and its terms (Rules and Conditions V.2, dated August 31, 2026; General Terms and Conditions V.2, dated January 22, 2026). The assumptions and formulas are the same as in the expected-value comparison of FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, and Hantec.

Conclusion

• At 1% risk per trade and "medium" skill (55% win rate), 2 Step wins. It came out to +$14,315 to +$19,712 per year. 1 Step came out to +$8,939 to +$15,718.
• The reason there's a range is that the payout profit cap (5% of the account) only applies to the first 3 payouts, and this model can only calculate it two ways — "applied every time" (strict) or "never applied" (lenient). The real value falls somewhere in between.
• 1 Step has an 8% target, but its 5% max loss trails the highest equity reached and keeps rising (it doesn't stop at the starting balance). Its daily loss limit is also tight at 3%, so risking 1% or more per trade leads to frequent failures and inflates the fees you pay over a year.
• At 0.5% risk per trade, 1 Step comes out ahead (+$7,801 to +$8,240 at "medium" skill, vs. +$5,777 to +$6,041 for 2 Step). For small risk, go with 1 Step; for 1% or more, go with 2 Step.
• At zero skill (50% win rate), every result is negative except the lenient 2 Step case at 1.5% risk per trade, which came to +$522.

SuperFunded's plans ($100K equivalent)

The trading platform is TradeLocker (the only platform the official FAQ pointed to). The counterparty in the terms is Eightcap International Ltd, the same company behind Eightcap Challenges. The format of the rules table is also nearly identical.

The profit-cap section of the terms states that "profit exceeding the cap is forfeited and removed when the account is reset to its original balance." In other words, every payout resets the account to its starting balance, and the profit is paid out in full. The simulation reads it the same way, resetting the account to its starting balance after each payout.

1 Step's max loss is explained in the terms with an example: "for a $10,000 account with a 2.5% limit, it starts at $9,750, and if the highest equity reaches $11,000, it rises to $10,750." Nowhere does it say the line stops at the starting balance.

The official site currently has a time-limited coupon, SEP20 (20% off all challenges, through September 30, 2026). The simulation uses list prices.

Simulation assumptions

Fixed

• 1 year (250 trading days), max 3 trades per day, 1:1 take-profit/stop-loss
• The daily loss limit is a common 2.5% of the starting balance across all plans (once a loss brings you within one more loss of exceeding 2.5% or the firm's own daily limit, no more trades that day)
• Risk per trade, floating loss, and daily loss all stay under 3%
• Lot size is fixed at r% of the starting balance, one position at a time
• Cost is 5% of risk per trade (a win is +0.95R, a loss is -1.05R). For USD/JPY, a round-trip cost of 1.5 pips corresponds to a 30-pip stop-loss/take-profit, and 2 pips to 40 pips
• On failure, the same plan is repurchased; no scaling; payouts every 14 days; profit remaining in the account at year-end is not counted
• 20,000 runs per condition

Varied

• Plan
• Skill: 50% win rate (zero) / 52% (small) / 55% (medium) / 58% (strong)
• Risk per trade r (0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%)
• Whether the 5% profit cap is "applied every time" (strict) or "never applied" (lenient)

Approximated or omitted in this model

• The profit cap only applies to the first 3 payouts. Since the engine can only choose "apply to all payouts" or "never apply," we calculated both ways
• 2 Step's profit split rises 70% → 80% → 90%. The engine can only hold one split value, so we calculated using 80%. For anyone who reaches more than 3 payouts, the real number is better than what's shown in this article
• 1 Step's max loss trails the highest equity (even mid-trade), but the engine approximates it as "trailing the highest end-of-day balance (uncapped)." The real thing is slightly stricter
• The Profit Distribution rule at payout (30%). The engine can't exclude this only during the evaluation phase, so it's not included. For methods that take large gains in a single day, the real number is worse than what's shown here
• The ban on trading within 10 minutes of high-impact news events, and the ban on any single trade losing more than 2.5% (this model caps at 1.5%, so it never triggers)

The expected-value formula

Expected value per trade

With a 1:1 take-profit/stop-loss and a cost of 5% of risk per trade (0.05R), a win is +0.95R and a loss is -1.05R. With win rate p:

Expected value per trade = p x 0.95R - (1 - p) x 1.05R = (2p - 1.05) x R

Expected value per year

Expected value per year = average annual payout received - average fees paid

• Payout received = withdrawal amount x profit split (80%). Under the strict version, a single payout is capped at 5% of the account
• Fees paid = fee x number of purchases in a year (repurchased each time you fail)
• SuperFunded doesn't refund fees, so the "fee refunded" term is zero

Losses are capped at "fee x number of purchases," while payouts from a passed account can keep growing upward. Because of this shape, the annual result can be positive even when the expected value per trade is slightly negative. Since the three averages can't be derived from a formula, we ran a full year of trading 20,000 times, following the rules exactly, and averaged the results (a Monte Carlo method).

In USD/JPY terms, a round-trip cost of 1.5 pips corresponds to a 30-pip stop-loss/take-profit, and 2 pips to 40 pips — matching the weight of this model. On a $100K account at 1% risk per trade ($1,000), that's 5 lots at 30 pips or 3.75 lots at 40 pips. Lot-size and leverage calculations are covered in detail in the 4-firm comparison article.

At 0.5% risk per trade: average annual take-home minus fees

The probability of finishing in the black (at "medium" skill) was 82% for 1 Step (both strict and lenient) and 67% for 2 Step (same).

At 1.0% risk per trade

The probability of finishing in the black (at "medium" skill) was 79% for 1 Step (strict), 86% for 1 Step (lenient), and 90% for 2 Step (both strict and lenient).

At 1.5% risk per trade

At 1.5% risk per trade, one loss puts you one more loss away from exceeding 2.5%, so trading stops there for the day.

The probability of finishing in the black (at "medium" skill) was 63% for 1 Step (strict), 82% for 1 Step (lenient), and 92% for 2 Step (both strict and lenient).

Why the difference shows up

For 1 Step, every payout resets the account to its starting balance, so the trailing line also resets to 95% of the starting balance at that point. Even so, within the evaluation and within each payout cycle, the line keeps rising as you make profit. On a $100K account, if you climb to +4% and then drop 4%, you fail right there. Risking small, like 0.5% per trade, makes it harder for the trailing line to catch up to you, which is where 1 Step's speed pays off.

Which one to buy

EAs (automated trading) are marked "Allowed" in the rules table. Martingale is banned, and any trade (the combined loss across all simultaneously open positions on a single idea) whose stop-loss exceeds 2.5% of the account balance is also banned as "gambling-style trading."

FAQ

Q. Is SuperFunded's expected value positive?

It depends on your skill. At a 55% win rate (expected value per trade of +0.05R), 2 Step at 1% risk per trade came to +$14,315 to +$19,712 per year. At a 50% win rate (expected value of -0.05R), every result was negative except lenient 2 Step at 1.5% risk per trade.

Q. What is SuperFunded's profit cap?

It's a rule where the first 3 payouts can only pay out up to 5% of the account. On a $100K account, that's a cap of $5,000 per payout (before the split), and anything above it is forfeited. The terms also state that if you engage in gambling-style trading, this capped period is extended by another 3 payouts.

Q. When can you start withdrawing from SuperFunded?

You can file your first request 14 days after opening the account, and every 14 days after your last request from then on. You can request from $100 or more, after the split. At the payout stage, a minimum trading day requirement also applies — 3 days for 1 Step, 5 days for 2 Step. The terms state that you may be asked for a phone call or video call as part of the review.

Q. Is SuperFunded's fee refundable?

No. Per the terms, once the account is created and trading has started, the fee is non-refundable. The previous "refund on successful payout" add-on stopped being sold as of October 14, 2025.

Q. Are SuperFunded and Eightcap Challenges the same company?

The counterparty in the terms is Eightcap International Ltd for both. The wording of the rules is also very similar, but the target, max loss, profit cap, and profit split differ. Japan is not on the restricted-countries list.

Q. I want to run this with my own conditions

We've published the simulation engine and this article's plan settings (JSON). Running python sim-prop-ev.py superfunded.json reproduces the same numbers as the tables in this article. You can change the split to 90%, use post-coupon prices, and more (requires Python and numba).

Related

• 🏢 SuperFunded's guide / SuperFunded plan comparison table
• 📊 Expected-value comparison of FTMO, The5ers, Fintokei, and Hantec
• 📊 Expected value of Eightcap Challenges

Sources: SuperFunded's "Challenges," "FAQs," "Rules and Conditions V.2 (dated August 31, 2026)," and "General Terms and Conditions." All confirmed September 27, 2026.