Research
50![What is PipFarm's expected value? Running a 1-year simulation on the 4 Classic/Consistency plans puts the cheapest, Consistency 1-Stage, in 1st place [September 2026]](/og/en/pipfarm-expected-value-2026-09.png)
What is PipFarm's expected value? Running a 1-year simulation on the 4 Classic/Consistency plans puts the cheapest, Consistency 1-Stage, in 1st place [September 2026]
A one-year Monte Carlo simulation of PipFarm's Classic (2-Stage / 1-Stage) and Consistency (2-Stage / 1-Stage) plans, run under the official rules. Covers annual take-home at 0.5%/1%/1.5% risk per trade and 50–58% win rates, plus a split that starts at 70%, payout caps starting at 3%, and a mechanism that shrinks your max-loss cushion starting from your second payout.
What's SuperFunded's Expected Value? Running a 1-Year Simulation of 1 Step and 2 Step Shows 2 Step Wins at 1% Risk or More (September 2026)
A one-year Monte Carlo simulation of SuperFunded's (a TradeLocker prop firm) 1 Step and 2 Step plans, run exactly to the official rules. Covers the annual take-home at 0.5%, 1%, and 1.5% risk per trade and win rates of 50-58%, 1 Step's trailing max loss, the 5% profit cap on the first three payouts, and 2 Step's 70% → 80% → 90% profit split.
![What's The5ers' Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of High Stakes vs. Pro Growth Shows Pro Growth Slightly Ahead, Thanks to No Payout Cap [September 2026]](/og/en/the5ers-expected-value-2026-09.png)
What's The5ers' Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of High Stakes vs. Pro Growth Shows Pro Growth Slightly Ahead, Thanks to No Payout Cap [September 2026]
We ran The5ers' High Stakes (Classic / New) and Pro Growth through a 1-year Monte Carlo simulation using the official rules. Covers annual take-home at 0.5%, 1%, and 1.5% risk per trade and 50–58% win rates, and how the 3-way fee refund, the $4,000 payout cap on $100K, and Pro Growth's 75% split all play out.
![What's ThinkCapital's Expected Value? | Simulating Lightning, Dual Step, and Nexus for a Year — Dual Step Comes Out on Top [September 2026]](/og/en/thinkcapital-expected-value-2026-09.png)
What's ThinkCapital's Expected Value? | Simulating Lightning, Dual Step, and Nexus for a Year — Dual Step Comes Out on Top [September 2026]
I calculated ThinkCapital's Lightning (1-step), Dual Step Intraday (2-step), and Nexus (3-step) with a year-long Monte Carlo simulation following their official rules exactly. Covers annual take-home at 0.5%/1%/1.5% risk per trade and 50–58% win rates, the fee refund on the 3rd payout, Lightning's trailing max loss, and Dual Step's max loss (7% during evaluation, 8% funded).
![What's TradingCult's Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of 2-Step and 2 Add-Ons: the 90% Split Add-On Wins If You Have Edge [September 2026]](/og/en/tradingcult-expected-value-2026-09.png)
What's TradingCult's Expected Value? A 1-Year Simulation of 2-Step and 2 Add-Ons: the 90% Split Add-On Wins If You Have Edge [September 2026]
A 1-year Monte Carlo simulation of TradingCult's 2-Step ($100K, $459) and its 90%-split / 15%-max-loss add-ons, run exactly to the official rules. Covers annual take-home at 0.5%/1%/1.5% risk per trade and 50-58% win rates, the 40% consistency rule at payout, and why the 1-Step plan (which has a payout cap) was excluded from the simulation.
![[September 2026] We Calculated BluSky's Expected Value: The 3-Stage Model Favors Propel (30OFF), +$2,988/Year at Zero Edge](/og/en/blusky-expected-value-2026-09.png)
[September 2026] We Calculated BluSky's Expected Value: The 3-Stage Model Favors Propel (30OFF), +$2,988/Year at Zero Edge
We compared the three plans (Launch, Propel, Orbit) at futures prop BluSky Trading using a Monte Carlo simulation run for one year, from evaluation through payout. Verified pricing, reset fees, the Buffer Zone, and payout terms on the official help center and pricing page on September 25, 2026. It's a 3-stage model — Evaluation → Buffer Zone → Sim Funded — and failing the Buffer Zone doesn't send you back to redo the evaluation. At 0.30 lots and zero edge, Propel $50K (code 30OFF brings it to $112/month) is best at +$2,988/year. Orbit's 30-day deadline is a heavy burden, and it comes out negative at zero edge.
![[September 2026] Calculating Bulenox's Expected Value: Every Plan Is Now One-Time Payment. At Zero Edge, End-of-Day Momentum Wins; With an Edge, Qualification Wins](/og/en/bulenox-expected-value-2026-09.png)
[September 2026] Calculating Bulenox's Expected Value: Every Plan Is Now One-Time Payment. At Zero Edge, End-of-Day Momentum Wins; With an Edge, Qualification Wins
A Monte Carlo comparing futures prop firm Bulenox's $50K plans (Qualification and Momentum, each available in trailing and end-of-day variants) over a full year from evaluation through payouts. Confirmed on the official pricing page, help center, and fee schedule on September 25, 2026. The monthly subscription model is gone — every plan is now a one-time payment. At 0.30 lots and zero edge, Momentum (end-of-day) comes out best at +$2,047/year; with 'medium' edge, Qualification leads at +$25,529. Automated trading is allowed only for self-built tools — commercial or shared tools are banned.
![[September 2026] We Calculated Funded Futures Network (FFN)'s Expected Value: Both Plans Negative at Zero Edge, STEADY Wins With Edge Thanks to Faster Payouts](/og/en/ffn-expected-value-2026-09.png)
[September 2026] We Calculated Funded Futures Network (FFN)'s Expected Value: Both Plans Negative at Zero Edge, STEADY Wins With Edge Thanks to Faster Payouts
We compared futures prop firm Funded Futures Network (FFN)'s two plans (Standard MAX and STEADY) with a 1-year Monte Carlo simulation running from evaluation through payout. Pricing, reset fees, buffer requirements, and payout conditions confirmed on the official help center and pricing page on September 25, 2026. At 0.30 lots and zero edge, both are negative: Standard MAX at −$312/year, STEADY at −$516/year. The requirement to build a $2,000 + $500 buffer on the funded account before any payout is the biggest drag. With edge, STEADY pulls ahead since it drops the consistency rule after passing and allows daily payouts.
![[September 2026] Calculating FTMO Futures Challenge Expected Value: Pro $50K Maxing Out the Daily Limit Is Best, and Skill Only Changes How You Withdraw](/og/en/ftmo-futures-expected-value-2026-09.png)
[September 2026] Calculating FTMO Futures Challenge Expected Value: Pro $50K Maxing Out the Daily Limit Is Best, and Skill Only Changes How You Withdraw
For all 6 FTMO Futures plans (Growth and Pro × $50K, $100K, $150K), I ran a 1-year Monte Carlo covering evaluation, resets, Sim-Funded, and payouts to calculate expected value. Prices, reset fees, and payout conditions for every plan were re-verified against the official rules page on September 23, 2026. Covers why Pro $50K comes out at +$4,836/year even at zero edge, why it stays positive even with a negative edge, the mechanism by which Pro can kill your account if you withdraw too aggressively, and why changing lot size between evaluation and funded is a rule violation.
![[September 2026] Expected Value Summary: 5 Futures Prop Firms Where Self-Built Bots Are Allowed — TradeDay and Topstep Win at Zero Edge, Bulenox/Topstep/Tradeify Win With Edge](/og/en/futures-prop-automation-b-expected-value-summary-2026-09.png)
[September 2026] Expected Value Summary: 5 Futures Prop Firms Where Self-Built Bots Are Allowed — TradeDay and Topstep Win at Zero Edge, Bulenox/Topstep/Tradeify Win With Edge
A summary comparing $50K accounts at 5 futures prop firms where automated trading is allowed 'self-built only, with conditions' (Bulenox, Tradeify, TradeDay, The Trading Pit, Topstep), run through identical Monte Carlo simulations. At 0.30 lots, one micro gold trade per day, over 1 year: at zero edge, TradeDay Quick Pay Intraday (+$2,522) and Topstep (+$2,519) are tied for the top. At 'medium' edge, Bulenox Qualification (+$25,529), Topstep (+$24,982), and Tradeify Select Daily (+$24,218) lead. None of them reach Category A's (fully automated OK) leader, FTMO Futures Pro (+$4,836 at zero edge). The Trading Pit is the only one that explicitly allows VPS; TradeDay and Topstep ban it.
![[September 2026] Expected Value Roundup: 6 Futures Prop Firms That Allow Automated Trading | FTMO Futures Pro Wins at Zero Edge and With an Edge](/og/en/futures-prop-automation-ok-expected-value-summary-2026-09.png)
[September 2026] Expected Value Roundup: 6 Futures Prop Firms That Allow Automated Trading | FTMO Futures Pro Wins at Zero Edge and With an Edge
A roundup comparing every plan at 6 futures prop firms that officially allow automated trading (FTMO Futures, FundedNext Futures, MyFundedFutures, Lucid Trading, BluSky, FFN) under the same Monte Carlo conditions. At $50K, 0.30 lots, 1 micro gold trade a day, over 1 year: at zero edge, FTMO Futures Pro wins with +$4,836 a year, followed by BluSky Propel at +$2,988. At 'medium' edge, FTMO Pro still wins at +$26,306, but FFN STEADY, MFFU Rapid EOD, and Lucid Daily all cluster around $24,000. Only FTMO and FundedNext explicitly allow VPS.
![[September 2026] I Calculated The Trading Pit Futures's (Futures Prime) Expected Value | A $99 One-Time Fee Nets +$1,345/Year at Zero Edge, and Own EAs + VPS Are Explicitly Allowed](/og/en/the-trading-pit-futures-expected-value-2026-09.png)
[September 2026] I Calculated The Trading Pit Futures's (Futures Prime) Expected Value | A $99 One-Time Fee Nets +$1,345/Year at Zero Edge, and Own EAs + VPS Are Explicitly Allowed
I calculated the expected value of The Trading Pit's futures challenge, Futures Prime $50K, with a year-long Monte Carlo simulation from evaluation through payouts. Confirmed on the official futures page and help center on September 25, 2026. $99 one-time fee, $79 reset, 30-day evaluation. At 0.30 lots: +$1,345/year at zero edge, +$21,491/year at 'medium' edge. It's one of the few futures prop firms that explicitly allows both your own EA and a VPS, but its Trustpilot rating is suspended for violating guidelines.